Posted on 10/17/2018 5:33:20 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
CE car sales are down and EV sales are up. Most people know this much. Also, EV sales are not up by as much as ICE car sales are down. The two metrics are believed to be independent of one another. I believe they are related.
When someone purchases a Tesla Model 3, that car sale is an EV and not a new ICE vehicle. So that is a first sale the ICE industry loses.
Next, the new EV owner often trades in a used ICE car and someone else will purchase that car. Some number of car buyers will opt for a nice used car instead of a new car, so this potentially eliminates another new ICE car buyer.
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
China is the largest EV market in the world. And China already manufactures a lot of electric cars on their own.
As far as theft goes, I don’t know. But there are other things that set Tesla apart besides IP. And China can already tear a Tesla apart and steal a lot of ideas.
Perhaps Musk sees it as the positives outweighing the negatives.
I would never buy anything: car, motorcycle, refrigerator, guitar, etc., anything of value that I can’t easily purchase parts for. And that includes cell phones — must have user-replaceable batteries, without special tools or training, or dealer credentials to purchase.
China has an issue with air quality (and the Elephant Man had a little puffiness around the eyes), and has a huge market for autos. Tesla either builds them there, or cedes the entire Chinese market to the said knockoffs. I'd be surprised if Tesla manages to eke out the quality level that they strive for in the US plants.
Let’s see - out of roughly 17,000,000 vehicle sales, Tesla accounted for about 1%.
Here’s my take on this...
Tesla “sedans” could easily become the best-selling sedan on the market in 5-10 years, give or take.
How?
Well, it’s all about the ICE sedans. ICE sedans are not selling as hot as the did 3-10 years ago.
HOWEVER!!!!!!
The sedan ICE cars are being replaced by the “new” preferred vehicles, those being the SUVs and trucks. People are trading in their sedans and not buying other sedans; they’re buying SUVs and trucks.
So, it turns out that, sedans are slowly but surely losing sales, and in FACT, Ford has indicated that they may stop manufacturing and selling sedans. Sedans are taking a hit throughout the automobile industry.
With that kind of scenario, the number of sedan sales in the entire industry, is going down.
So, it turns out that, Tesla outsold 2 or 3 “known” sedans in the last quarter (or two). So, even if Tesla’s sales remain the same, and the other sedans continue losing favor with the consumers, Tesla will, BY DEFAULT, become the best-selling sedan on the market.
HOWEVER...
Overall, EV sedans continue lagging badly to the overall sedan market.
And, when compared to overall sales of sedans and SUVs and trucks, the numbers for Tesla continue to look miserable.
It’s very easy to overtake a market which is ceasing to exist, and the same reason that is seeing the sales of sedans going down, will eventually see EV sedans disappearing too.
Not so difficult to increase sales from near zero. EVs are a long way from dominance .Cars of any kind aren’t going away, but are dropping in sales share for ICs. EVs are still a niche vehicle though
Just to think that I am paying something for every Tesla that someone else buys.
You're also helping to build roads you'll never use.
I agree. If I had the cash for a Model 3 and a solar array to charge the batts, I'd go for it, but I'd want a gasoline powered vehicle for any kind of round trip more than 150-200 miles.
I think we'll see a couple of changes -- one, the battery technology will improve two or three times over the next ten years, and the older EVs will look like buggy whips to the "gotta have new" crowd; two, production of EVs by European companies (VW for example) will rise in Europe and in North America, probably preferentially in Canada and Mexico, taking advantage of the USMCA. If China wants further penetration of the US market, EVs are a good way to do it, and they'll probably move production to Mexico and Canada.
Bull rap
EV CARS SUCK ASS
“I’d wager that if they took away the right for these things to use the carpool lane and the rebate subsidies, that their sales would drop off like a rock”
The full $7500 Fed. Tesla subsidy will be gone this year The subsidy will go to $3750 for the first half of 2019, then $1875 the second half of 2019. Tesla burned through the 200,000 car subsidy allotment on there most expensive models which their rich customers would have bought regardless.
Nonsense. My local Ford/Lincoln dealerships can’t keep Expeditions or Navigators in stock. People are paying up for them, despite their low fuel economy.
Its not the cars themselves that are the most valuable IP. Rather its the manufacturing process that Musk is inventing from scratch.
The Chinese will get all of it. All of it.
I’ve been hearing the promise of EV batteries for over 10 years, and it’s always the idea that they’ll be improved by factors of 2 or 3 times. Years later, same promise, and no real results. FACT is that, there is only so much that a battery can be improved, and we might be now at the max of how much a battery can do.
But, why insist on producing a product that the vast majority of people reject? It’s not as if EVs are new and people will somehow and eventually get to love them. They are not like computers, where people never had them before some 30 years ago, and learned to love them and use them and need and want them. EVs are competing against liquid fuel vehicles, and as of today, there isn’t a single EV that is more cost-effective than an ICE car that is of comparative size and comparatively equipped. EVs have been tried for over 100 years, and they’ve failed to take hold, and there is nothing different this time around.
A fool and your money are soon partied..................
For sale, new car for $100,000. 200 mile range (depending on terrain and temperature as well as use of air conditioning or heater), decreasing over time. Rechargeable, but it might take a few hours or overnight. Replacement battery will be required sometime after 5 years in order to keep range within 50% of original specs, and will only cost you $5000. No dealerships for repairs or parts available. Do not let battery levels go to zero or your car will become a large brick.
EV’s have limited urban applications. That’s about it.
Indeed...most of the posts are just completely amateurish. I’ve worked for two publically traded companies (including the head IRO for one) that frequently gets SA articles posted on my company and adjacent peers. The outright errors or missing narrative posted on them is scary (in both directions - some favorable to company/industry, others not).
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