Posted on 08/11/2018 5:32:44 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin
A recent study conducted by researchers from the University of Oregon and the University of Wisconsin says that internet cables will be underwater in 15 years, and it's too late to stop it.
Coauthor Dr. Carol Barford said that she and the other researchers had expected to see some overlap in infrastructure and shorelines, but the timing surprised them.
"The main thing that we didn't expect was that it would be so soon," Barford told AccuWeather.
In 2015, Barford's two coauthors, Paul Barford and Ramakrishnan Durairajan, contributed to a study that mapped out the infrastructure of the internet in the United States.
The results of the study when laying out the map from the previous study and comparing it to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predictions of the future shoreline shows that New York City, Miami and Seattle are at the highest risk.
Barford estimated that about one-fifth to one-fourth of the fibers that make up the internet in a city such as New York will be underwater on a normal day at high tide.
The study lists CenturyLink, Intelliquent and AT&T as companies that are at the most risk, and it summarizes the key takeaway as "developing mitigation strategies should begin soon."
While the fibers were designed to be water and weather resistant, they were not designed to be underwater, the study notes.
The paper does not list how being under water will affect internet connection, but Barford noted how it could hurt the physical components of it.
Barford said that the water molecules can seep into any micro-cracks of the tubes and into the glass fibers, causing signals to slow down or be lost.
"The movement of the signal is not as reliable when wet," Barford said
Water can also damage the lines and nodes when it freezes in the tubes, thaws out and then repeats the cycle. The result is cracked or broken pieces.
Lastly, water sloshing around in the conduit can jostle or break fibers.
With the internet waterlogged, it wont only impact coastal cities. Barford said that due to the network connections, there will be effects on traffic trans-nationally, through the Midwest.
It also has a chance to impact the Trans-Oceanic cables that run under the ocean floor and connect to a landing point and radiate out into the land-based network. Its that meeting point that may be at risk.
Barford said that although things can change in the next century, the results are set for the next 15 years.
"As far as things happening in the next 10 to 15 years, they're pretty locked-in because there's a lot of inertia in the climate system," Barford said. "Even if we all stop driving cars and burning natural gas right now, it really wouldn't make a difference 15 years from now. So we're going to have flooded internet. The question is how to deal with it in the near term."
Barford summarized three different options that people are considering to approach the problem.
The first is the most expensive, which involves digging up the cables and nodes near flood areas and replacing them with waterproof counterparts.
The complications come in the time and money required to dig up those parts, most of which are along other types of infrastructure such as roads and railways. Another cost added to this option would be the waterproof cables.
Due to the expenses and logistics, Barford describes this option as unattractive.
The second option is to abandon the lines that are in danger of water damage and build new ones on higher ground.
"Some people have suggested that actually would be good with two fronts of infrastructure," Barford said. "Some of the old stuff could even be used if it wasn't flooded."
The third option is to reroute the internet traffic. Barford said she doesn't understand how people with the waterlogged internet would still get service with this option, but that in general, "a lot of the need could be met by rerouting traffic through infrastructure that is on high ground."
When overlaying the infrastructure maps with the NOAA sea level rise predictions, Barford said they used the high scenario from the site because the association recommended using this setting when evaluating expensive or long-term infrastructure.
Anytime youre risking an investment and something really big that would be really bad if you lost it, then you have to consider the more serious end of things, Barford said.
The second reason for using this model is that it takes the effects of greenhouse gases on the climate change into consideration for its prediction.
Its based on a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission scenario, which the way were going seems a pretty likely thing for the next few years. Were kind of doing business as usual, if not worse, Barford said.
Since the high prediction that they employed was published in 2012, NOAA has published an extreme scenario, now the highest tier and more devastating prediction.
It all seems very grim, but it definitely substantiates the idea that its worth looking at the more serious scenarios, and that theres really no use to be optimistic in the near term.
Barford said the inevitable change comes from the inertia in the climate system, the effects of past greenhouse gas emissions carrying over and catching up.
"There's a lot of heating and sea level rise that is just going to happen," Barford said. "And then hopefully we can get our act together and make the consequences less severe for people living later on in the century."
I think I will just leave it there too...:^)
So..... with global warming does that mean people are getting smarter??
Isn't that a Bon Jovi song?
THAT should get their attention.
I've not read such bull crap since Al Roker reversed course last week when he attributed lack of hurricanes to global warming
Stopped right there.
The computer says so based on the data we put in the computer.
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Don’t we already have cables under the ocean? Is someone smoking crack?
Well. If my internet access is going to be affected, I’ll have to take climate change more seriously. /S
“I’ll just leave this here...”
Easy for you to say.. living on high ground in the middle of the country. It will be a good 5 years before your hat starts floating!! :/
Agree. Internet cables are already underwater! AMZ, GOOG, Global Crossing laid thousands of miles of underwater cable around the world.
Telephone and Telegraph Cables have been under the Ocean since the 1890s.
More woulda', coulda', shoulda', but hasn't.
They make these predictions up from some rigged computer modes and then say what "could" happen in the future but they have no actual evidence of it yet.
Adam Schiftless would be proud. There is plenty of evidence, he says, that proves collusion by Trump with the Russians, but they just haven't found any yet.
These people are nuts
obligatory image:
BS meter pegged again......
Almost as if a bunch of liberal to get together and figure out how can we appeal more to the millennials. I know will tell him that global warming is going to ruin their internet that’ll do it.
“Judys global average temperature was up 0.32 degrees from the mid 70s. “
No, it is not. There is ZERO proof of warming. ZERO.
First the Luddites tried to use bogus US temp readings with sensors near heat sources like air conditioners. When that was exposed, they tried to just lie and change the spreadsheets.
The DMSP spacecraft is the ONLY source that has constantly measured the Earth’s temp for over 50 years, and there has actually been cooling.
That might be harder than you think. Just yesterday, I stumbled on internet cables the internet providers simply strung all over the sidewalk.
Then I had to drive over a vast network of them, all over the street, while I drove to work.
If they are to hang all those wires on poles, we will deplete the forests just making all those poles.
At least this problem is already solved i.e. lexican. We can call them internet poles.
Then, won't all those internet poles be unsightly? You will have to set them up every hundred feet all along the interstate system as well as up one street and down the other in every city and hamlet. It's lucky that part of it fits...internet poles on the interstate.
This whole thing is snowballing out of control. We had better have a government commission sett up to study it before it's too late. Oh, wait, it's already too late.
Everyone says Judy is a hot mama.
15 years X 2.5 mm/year = 37.5mm = 1.5 inches.
I wish there was a way to hold these paper writers accountable when they are shown to be wrong.
Maybe we could shame them into a bet, or some such.
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