Posted on 07/24/2018 5:13:34 AM PDT by SMGFan
University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato says Democrats for the first time are the favorites to retake control of the House in this year's midterm elections. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the university's Center for Politics, said Tuesday that Democrats are now "soft favorites" for control of the chamber.
"[F]or most of this election cycle the generic ballot has shown a consistent Democratic lead that suggests a very competitive battle for the majority. A high number of open seats — the highest number of any postwar election save 1992 — give Democrats many more targets than the GOP," he wrote.
The analysis comes as Sabato shifted 17 House races in favor of Democrats, with several vulnerable Republicans including Rep. Pete Roskam (R-Ill.) seeing their races move from "likely Republican" to "toss-up" in the ratings.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
They’re going to win right up until they lose and then they’re going to whine until the cows come home or the fat lady sings... Hillary hasn’t started singing yet, so it’s when the cows come home.
The Larry Sabato Pattern:
July: Dems +10 points
August: Dems +2 points
September: Dems +5 points
Early October: Dems +5 points
Late October: Dems +2 points
Election Day Minus One: No bias
We are in the Dog Days of Summer, when Larry Sabato let’s his freak flag fly. The fact that he has this at all close is very, very good news for the Republicans.
Pay per view?
Accuracy predicting the House seems better during off year elections 2010 and 2014 . And not just in October.
Only difference...The My Pillow Guy is a devout Christian.
I tend to disregard Sabato
This is an attempt to start a new narrative going into the fall to mute the one showing the Democrats are out of touch with the mainstream in calling for socialism, etc.
This is the first salvo.
Sabato is a democrat hack and always has been.
Having said that, the GOP has PLENTY of material to hang around the Democrats neck and they better start spending all the cash they are raking in through donations.
I almost think this is deliberate —
The Dem leadership knows that they are in a bad way. But they tell their followers that they are kicking ass. But in November, when they lose badly, they can tell their supporters that Trump has, again, meddled and stolen another election and now there is no other recourse: it’s time for violent revolution.
Time will tell.
DEMOCRATS are busily registering voters for November, as well as, preparing absentee ballot lists. REPUBLICANS rest on their laurels. Several “safe seats” have already been lost because inaction.
A large number of Republicans shot at on that baseball field have chosen to retire. Just not worth it, I guess. I hate to see an assassin have such a large effect on the country.
Only with massive fraud will they flip that many seats. Ironically, Pres. Trump should have strict voter security in place to “keep Russians from meddling with the 2018 election,” but then Democrats will whine that this creates “voter suppression” among their cheating base.
ROFLMAO! Larry, the progressive prognosticator is dreaming again.
I guess many people want ICE abolished, strict gun control, more taxes, a slower growth economy...
Larry Sabato has zero credibility. None. That the media is still trying to talk up this "blue wave" nonsense really just shows how far removed they are from reality.
They oughtta rename it the Tidy Bowl Wave because they're gonna get FLUSHED come November.
If they had shown a CONSISTENT Democrat lead, why do they suddenly say Dems now for the first time are favored to take back the House?
The house predicted amount looks close to actual.
This should not be taken lightly.
I know the experts were wrong about hiLIARy but there is almost as much at stake in 2018 as there was in 2016.
I hope the GOP is paying careful attention.
The problem is that the GOP’s reaction is to move LEFT when they see trouble in the distance, when they should move RIGHT.
You would think they would have learned from 2016. And for God’s sake, keep the Reagan Rule!!!
Freaking idiots.
I don’t think this will be exact, but don’t be surprised if most GOP candidates are either lazy or stupid in their campaigns.
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