Posted on 04/04/2016 1:09:21 PM PDT by Signalman
About this Survey -
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.
The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985.
Sample Size: 400 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in Wisconsin (240 self-reported Republicans and 160 self-reported independents and Democrats.
Sample Dates: April 1-3, 2016
Margin of Error: ± 5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
Question Wording:
If the 2016 Republican presidential primary were being held today between (names rotated) Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?
Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you will definitely not vote in the 2016 Republican presidential primary and 10 meaning that you will definitely vote in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, what number would you give as your chance of voting in the 2016 Republican presidential primary?
National Enquirer.
I’m a Trump supporter but I will be very surprised if he pulls out a win
in WI.
Cboldt, check again. You may be right and I may have misread it, but I thought the 160 number included dem crossovers and independents.
Here’s what it says at the bottom:
Sample Size: 400 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in Wisconsin (240 self-reported Republicans and 160 self-reported independents and Democrats.
Thank you G for the time and calls you make for Trump.
Sarah Palin had the line of the weekend in Wisconsin while Trump is talking about building a Wall, Ted Cruz and Glen Beck are handing out Soccer balls and Teddy bears to illegals at the border.
Ted backed 1.7 Million illegals legislation in 2013.
“Sample Size: 400 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in Wisconsin (240 self-reported Republicans and 160 self-reported independents and Democrats.”
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/wirep.html
I just checked, and you are correct, my mistake. The 160 does include DEM.
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Is the link broken
“ARG is always kinda iffy.”
According to 538, ARG has a 2% lower accuracy rating than a CBS poll since the 2012 cycle. Up to and including the 2008 cycle it was equal to CBS, CNN, etc..
It’s poll of Wisconsin/Democratic primary shows a toss up, close to the other recent polls. It’s a valid poll with a higher margin of error.
ARG was also the closest in Florida. ARG poll: T-49, R-24, C-16. Result: T-46, R-27, C-17.
geez, we’ll know in about 30 hours, no?
what an impatient bunch :)
Agreed but I have seen big numbers of dems switching to republican in other states (like PA - http://www.tribdem.com/news/is-trump-causing-pennsylvania-democrats-to-switch-parties/article_59995588-f09d-11e5-a088-7b56edb7aa58.html)
If these folks are voting for Trump, those kinds of numbers may have a big impact. I highly doubt voters would crossover for Cruz but I guess we will know tomorrow.
I agree - I think close to all of the DEM crossovers go for Trump. I speculate that the number of DEM crossovers is affected by how close the Clinton-sanders race is perceived to be. If that race is close, the DEMs vote in the DEM primary. In Pennsylvania, Clinton is blowing Sanders out of the water.
The Dems who don’t like Hillary and find Sanders too socialist have already decided to go Trump. This is an open primary and the ARG poll shows very few undecided voters, unlike the previous polls who had from 13-22% undecided. They are breaking for Trump.
It has been my observation over the years that “momentum” is a big factor for voters. I will never forget how McCain was in absolutely last place until New Hampshire, I think and then he went on to wipe out Giuliani in just a couple weeks. Giuliani had been 20 points ahead for months.
I feel that some stupid voters just like to say they voted for the winner. I can say that whenever I want. We have secret votes. I can claim to vote for whoever I want. (And will lie if I am ever asked in an exit poll, just to mess with the pollsters.)
I think the pollsters and the media are hoping to do this again by claiming that Trump is 10 points behind Cruz. Some stupid voters might fall for this, but I hope not too many.
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