ARG WI poll Trump 42-Cruz 32

ARG ^ | ARG

[Signalman]

About this Survey -

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985.

Sample Size: 400 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in Wisconsin (240 self-reported Republicans and 160 self-reported independents and Democrats.

Sample Dates: April 1-3, 2016

Margin of Error: ± 5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question Wording:

If the 2016 Republican presidential primary were being held today between (names rotated) Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you will definitely not vote in the 2016 Republican presidential primary and 10 meaning that you will definitely vote in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, what number would you give as your chance of voting in the 2016 Republican presidential primary?

[jsanders2001]

So I guess this means cheating on your wife doesn’t affect your reputation when your a politician. I guess it’s expected. Most cheat on just about everything else.

[euram]

If this and the other poll that has Trump leading, are true, I believe it is a direct result of the over-reach of the establishment. They’ve been all over TV talking about how they can change the rules, and even speculating about picking someone who isn’t even currently in the race. Plus, they’ve been spending millions on attack ads in WI. People don’t like such open displays of corruption. People may also be realizing that neither Cruz or Kasich have a real shot at getting to 1237, and they are, therefore, not legitimate candidates, only in there to aid the establishment in their dirty work.

[dynoman]

Stephen Miller Amazing Speech Racine Wisconsin Senior Policy Adviser for Donald Trump; (Why Ted should not get elected by the guy who used to be Jeff Sessions top aid.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1qOA2PVDS8

[bigtoona]

Notice that unlike some of the BS polls of late that say Cruz is ahead and ONLY SAMPLE REPUBLICANS, this poll included independents and democrats!

This is an open primary state and Trump has crossover voters which will affect the outcome!

I trust this poll more than the others who only sample republicans but we will have to see what happens when the dust settles.

[Guenevere]

Stephen Miller is outstanding!

I’ve been making calls for Trump this afternoon!

[HamiltonJay]

This poll, unlike others at least looks to try to be capturing independents and cross over voters.... The others I’ve seen showing Trump down 10 seem to be just republicans.

I personally don’t think anyone will win WI by 10 points.

If Trump does pull off the win in WI the race is effectively over. There is nowhere else really for Cruz to surprise, and in fact I expect he’ll likely come in 3rd as often as not in most of rust belt/north east states. THere is also nowhere else the GOPe can keep Trump from 1237+, though even with a WI loss, Trump remains more than on target for 1237 anyway.

Personally I hope Trump wins WI, just so I don’t have to endure dealing with 2 weeks of garbage reporting, punditry, that the race has changed and Trump is done... when anyone with a brain that works knows in 2 weeks Trump will dominate in New York by a wide margin.

Just 1 more day to go. Time will tell.

[alloysteel]

Small sample size, shaky assumptions, perhaps inaccurate sampling techniques. Lots of reasons for the wide variation of poll information collected already.

And who is to say whether many of these “polls” were in fact bogus, measuring no attitudes, but designed as “push polls”?

Only one poll counts, and that is the one collected on April 5th and tabulated throughout the evening.

[Ouderkirk]

These days, I don’t believe polls are being used to measure public opinion but to drive it.

[Donglalinger]

The only othe ARG Poll I could find, pretty accurate

Final ARG NH Tracking Poll (Trump 33, Kasich 17, Rubio 14, Cruz 10, Jeb 9)

Actual Results Trump 35% Kasich 15% Cruz 11%

[2ndDivisionVet]

Is sundance the pollster?

[Donglalinger]

Another ARG poll for SC had Trump 34%, actual result 32%

[tirednvirginia]

I think they are the same poll - American Research Group

[Arm_Bears]

And despite the non-stop full-court press against Trump, Cruz still can’t break 50% in Wisconsin—At least in the polls I’ve seen.

[Dr. Sivana]

This is an open primary state and Trump has crossover voters which will affect the outcome!

The Madison crazies will come out for Sanders, they aren't big on Hillary Rodham Clinton.

[Cboldt]

This poll is of 240 who self-identified as Republican and 160 who self-identified as independent. None of those polled self-identified as a DEM.

Not a big deal, and I don't think many DEMs are going to cross-over anyway, because the Hillary v. Sanders contest is pretty close.

[11th Commandment]

All comes down to Democrats and Independents cross over in open primary:

Sample Size: 400 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in Wisconsin (240 self-reported Republicans and 160 self-reported independents and Democrats.

[nopardons]

BRAVA, Guennie!

How's it going?

[Cboldt]

-- I hope Trump wins WI, just so I don't have to endure dealing with 2 weeks of garbage reporting, punditry, that the race has changed and Trump is done... --

I don't see the anti-Trump tenor subsiding. I think it will get more intense, regardless. The point isn't necessarily to deny him success in upcoming primary elections, but rather to prepare the battlefield and justify handing the nomination to somebody else. If the nomination goes to Trump, then the relentless opposition will be used to justify the party working against its nominee in the general.

[RIghtwardHo]

Not that I care much, but ARG is always kinda iffy.