“ARG is always kinda iffy.”
According to 538, ARG has a 2% lower accuracy rating than a CBS poll since the 2012 cycle. Up to and including the 2008 cycle it was equal to CBS, CNN, etc..
It’s poll of Wisconsin/Democratic primary shows a toss up, close to the other recent polls. It’s a valid poll with a higher margin of error.
looking backwards on RCP for a week, Cruz has been falling a point a day. I’m not sure how valid it is that Trump has gained 20 points (-10 to +10), that would be impressive, but we might well end up with another Missouri!:
Wednesday, Marquette - Cruz by 10
Thursday, Fox - Cruz by 10
Thursday, PPP - Cruz by 1
Saturday, Loras - Cruz by 7
Sunday, CBS - Cruz by 6
Monday, Emerson - Cruz by 5
Monday, ARG - Trump by 10
Tuesday?????????