Posted on 03/30/2016 4:47:20 PM PDT by sargon
In my humble opinion, the Republican party has effectively and totally destroyed itself with its relentless character assassination vendetta against its own frontrunner, Donald Trump.
There will be no recovering from this. Here are the only possible scenarios I can see, as we finish the primary season and move into the GOP convention:
Scenario #1: The only scenario that has the potential to expand the GOP demographic base permanently and beat Hillary is for Donald Trump to win the nomination and face Hillary in the general election, either with a clear majority or a near majority of delegates.
Scenario #2: Ted Cruz wins the GOP nomination fair and square, without jumping into bed with the GOPe. In that case, his narrow demographic base probably dooms him, but at least voter enthusiasm is preserved. Unfortunately, this scenario has already been obviated by the fact that the GOPe is demonizing Trump nonstop, infuriating his voters, and Ted Cruz has adopted the Establishment tactics wholeheartedly, which alienates Donald Trump voters who otherwise might be willing to support Ted Cruz.
Scenario #3: Ted Cruz wins the nomination with the help of the GOPe, either by getting a majority of delegates or by leapfrogging the frontrunner at the convention. This scenario still results in a candidate with a vary narrow base who likely can't overcome the demographic realities which accrue to the benefit of the Democrat party. Furthermore, this scenario also results in furious Trump voters who believe in their hearts that the nomination was stolen as a result of the constant character assassination directed at Donald trump.
Scenario #4: The convention is contested and someone other than Trump or Cruz is nominated. In this case, voters from both of the leading candidates are furious with the party, and enough of them stay home for Hillary to win easily.
So that is my analysis.
It looks very much to me like the "Anybody But Trump" movement is beginning to succeed. Unfortunately, that "anybody" is going to be Hillary Clinton, unless she's indicted, in which case any of the above scenarios could still, theoretically at least, result in a GOP victory.
Barring that, however, the only scenarios that could succeed are scenarios number 1 & 2.
And, as I have already noted, scenario #2 has already been destroyed by the GOPe, with Ted Cruz acting in full complicity.
Thus, conservatives' best hope is scenario #1, just like it has been for the last few months. It is the only scenario still possible that preserves voter enthusiasm, expands the GOP tent, and wipes out Hillary in the general election.
Since scenario #1 is itself becoming less likely now, IMHO, and due to the causes I've outlined, this leaves me with the inescapable conclusion that the GOPe has already screwed the pooch. The GOP will not win the White House in 2016 absent Trump at the top of the ticket. It could have won with Cruz possibly, but only in the case where Cruz remained an anti-Establishment candidate, and didn't adopt the Establishment tactics being used against Donald Trump. It's already too late for that, of course.
I'm convinced that the GOP will be content to remain in marginal power by controlling the House and perhaps still the Senate. That will allow them (with Hillary in the White House) to preserve the system as it is, where both parties scratch each other's backs, put up token opposition on various issues, and everybody just keeps enriching themselves at the expense of the People.
For doing what they have done, the GOP deserves to die a painful and lingering death. I, for one, am done with the Party, and will never register as a Republican again: not even to vote in their closed primaries. I'll stick with being a registered independent.
It saddens me very much to write these words, because, only a few short months ago, we had 2 candidates with the potential to lead a desperately-needed Revolution in American politics and culture.
But, alas, I believe it is not to be. The GOPe has overplayed their hand to the point where they have destroyed the party's chances for every possible scenario, except for the one case that appeared like it would happen: Donald Trump winning the nomination.
Now, Donald Trump bears some responsibility for this, as does Ted Cruz, for different reasons.
But the real villain in this tragic sequence of events is the GOPe: Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, Lindsay Graham, John McCain, Bob Dole, the National Review, and all of their elitist ilk.
Yes, folks, I'm still hopeful that somehow something positive will come from the criminal and treasonous Establishment proceedings that we all have been watching before our very eyes. But I doubt it.
It looks like the Revolution will have to wait for at least another four years. That's good enough for the Establishment. As long as they can always delay the inevitable, the inevitable becomes impossible.
The hatred that I feel for the GOPe burns within me with a passion that will never die. Indeed, it only waxes stronger with each Machiavellian shenanigan they pull. It will be on full display at the GOP convention as well, of course.
I can't help but feel a profound sense of loss in looking at the state of affairs that we have arrived at.
No matter what happens at the convention, there will be large masses of GOP voters who will feel totally betrayed by the party leadership, and this will carry all the way through to the general election cycle.
All is lost, IMHO, and I say that as a realist, not a pessimist.
I don’t see how Trump can overlook Cruz’s statements that Trump is for Obamacare- That Trump is a sniveling coward— That Trump is to blame for the Black Lives Matter protesters disrupting his speeches-— That trump should fire Corey because he assaulted a reporter-— There is too much dishonesty in all of that... and the list could go on and on...
26 seconds. hilarious!!!!!
voodoo economics?!!!
I didnt say voodoo economics!!!!!!
Ohh and blaming Trump for the affairs reported about him in the National Enquirer...
I agree with your analysis of Cruz. He wants to win at any cost, and sold his soul to the GOPe to do it. Not a man of principle, IMHO.
By the way, great vanity. Was thinking of posting something along these very lines myself.
Cruz has FAR LESS chance of winning than Trump, I am sure you wish the country was far right WE ALL DO however it s not!!! Cruz could possibly win the south but that is not even a given any longer, he does NOT stand a chance in HELL in the rest of the country!!! You Cruz people are DREAMING you are ignoring what the electorate has become sorry to say but this is the fact!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8hnM6xNjeU
1:35 second version.
Way too funny.
I never said voodoo economics.!!!!
I defy you to find it!!!!!
At the risk of Lefty petulance a la Sean Penn, “if ___ wins, I am moving to France”, I think that if a Republican is not elected president in November, it will be time to take a hard look at some basic assumptions, first and foremost being whether it makes sense for the USA to continue in its current 50 State configuration or whether instead of trying to being kind of the wreckage, we should be trying to split the country up into two or more parts. That said, I am still on the Trump Express and holding up some hope that he can pull it off!
You are KIDDING us right??? Teddy Bear has got the Bushes heading his fundraising now, JEB Bush has endorsed him, ALL GOP -e PACS are now behind him??? Have you been sleeping or what???? He is IN BED WITH THEM!!!!
BTW: In all your scenarios, Hillary wins in November. Even if Trump wins the nomination easily, he will be beaten badly.
The talk of crossovers from the Democrats is fantasy. Talk of Hispanics voting for him is fantasy. Talk of 20% of the black vote for Trump is fantasy.
Trump does have a strong, core base of support. But thats it. Its about 30% of the electorate. No one else can stand the clown. He is ill prepared to be president. He doesnt think before he speaks. He says one thing one day and walks it back the next day. Or he takes a different stand altogether. He constantly shoots himself in the foot. He is incredibly unelectable and unlikeable.
In the process, he has character assassinated the only Consitutionalist in the race, Ted Cruz, rendering him unelectable. For his part, Cruz had not handled Trump well.
So I believe Hillary presidency is a certainty. And we have Trump to thank.
| I wouldn't give up hope. Trump has stumped every single pundit out there and come out on top. He's confident he can pull it off, and I believe he will. Remember, he hasn't pulled out his Art of the Deal card yet. Lots of negotiations can take place to bring the GOPe onboard somewhat. |
Cruz COULD NEVER win the general, blaming Trump is insane the electorate of today WOULD NEVER vote Cruz!!!! Nice try!!!
Wrong. Trump is the symptom not the disease. The sellout of the people by the GOPe is root cause here, not Trump.
I’m not a Cruz supporter, I’m a Trump supporter. Regardless of whether either wins, or they stick us with warmed over Mitt, I think it is enormously important that we all show up to the polls, even if we cannot find it in our hearts to vote the top of the ticket without doing a write-in. We, who care about such things, need to vote our conscience both on the top of the ticket and every office below.
Perhaps Kasich will be the nominee. He performs best in the polls against Hillary.
The public face of what used to be called conservatism and the GOP would rather lose to Hillary than win with Trump
At least Kasich is still against abortion.
I think Trump/Cruz has a better chance than Kasich against Hillary.
Kasich wont pull in the dems and he wont motivate the nationalist /conservative base to show.
It’s quite likely the reason is that no one has been slinging mud his way. After $68M for 53K attack ads, Kasich would almost certainly plummet to Trump/Cruz levels.
If the GOPe steals the nomination away from Trump the punishment isn’t just no Republican voters showing up in November, but that the Trumpinator will be baaaack, with an even larger and angrier voter base in 4 years. And he won’t be running Republican’t this time.
I don’t post here often and spend a lot of time lurking. I have been a registered Republican for 36 years. I became interested in politics watching Ronald Reagan. I voted for him and respected him. I am one of those that has felt that the Republican party left me 8-10 years ago. Donald Trump has brought me back to the Party. He has given me hope for the future of this country. No, he is not the perfect Candidate. Who is? I believe in him-I trust him. I think his not being a politician has been a real reason that I will vote for him. I have always supported Republicans in every election but this year the actions of the GOP has reopened my eyes. The truth is out-The good ole Boys reign. I will not sit down and give in to the GOP if Donald J. Trump is not the nominee. I will vote Trump 3rd party or skip the Presidential vote all together if he is not on that ballot and vote for every democrat on the ballot! The Republican Party may win the battle but they will lose the war!!
No Trump/Cruz ticket will be forthcoming. Either Trump wins it on his own or it goes to anyone besides Cruz. I can see Kasich paired with someone else not despised by a sizeable portion of the electorate. We can forget conservatism though; the man from Canada killed it. Trump may still pull this out, but not in his own strength.
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