Posted on 03/30/2016 4:47:20 PM PDT by sargon
In my humble opinion, the Republican party has effectively and totally destroyed itself with its relentless character assassination vendetta against its own frontrunner, Donald Trump.
There will be no recovering from this. Here are the only possible scenarios I can see, as we finish the primary season and move into the GOP convention:
Scenario #1: The only scenario that has the potential to expand the GOP demographic base permanently and beat Hillary is for Donald Trump to win the nomination and face Hillary in the general election, either with a clear majority or a near majority of delegates.
Scenario #2: Ted Cruz wins the GOP nomination fair and square, without jumping into bed with the GOPe. In that case, his narrow demographic base probably dooms him, but at least voter enthusiasm is preserved. Unfortunately, this scenario has already been obviated by the fact that the GOPe is demonizing Trump nonstop, infuriating his voters, and Ted Cruz has adopted the Establishment tactics wholeheartedly, which alienates Donald Trump voters who otherwise might be willing to support Ted Cruz.
Scenario #3: Ted Cruz wins the nomination with the help of the GOPe, either by getting a majority of delegates or by leapfrogging the frontrunner at the convention. This scenario still results in a candidate with a vary narrow base who likely can't overcome the demographic realities which accrue to the benefit of the Democrat party. Furthermore, this scenario also results in furious Trump voters who believe in their hearts that the nomination was stolen as a result of the constant character assassination directed at Donald trump.
Scenario #4: The convention is contested and someone other than Trump or Cruz is nominated. In this case, voters from both of the leading candidates are furious with the party, and enough of them stay home for Hillary to win easily.
So that is my analysis.
It looks very much to me like the "Anybody But Trump" movement is beginning to succeed. Unfortunately, that "anybody" is going to be Hillary Clinton, unless she's indicted, in which case any of the above scenarios could still, theoretically at least, result in a GOP victory.
Barring that, however, the only scenarios that could succeed are scenarios number 1 & 2.
And, as I have already noted, scenario #2 has already been destroyed by the GOPe, with Ted Cruz acting in full complicity.
Thus, conservatives' best hope is scenario #1, just like it has been for the last few months. It is the only scenario still possible that preserves voter enthusiasm, expands the GOP tent, and wipes out Hillary in the general election.
Since scenario #1 is itself becoming less likely now, IMHO, and due to the causes I've outlined, this leaves me with the inescapable conclusion that the GOPe has already screwed the pooch. The GOP will not win the White House in 2016 absent Trump at the top of the ticket. It could have won with Cruz possibly, but only in the case where Cruz remained an anti-Establishment candidate, and didn't adopt the Establishment tactics being used against Donald Trump. It's already too late for that, of course.
I'm convinced that the GOP will be content to remain in marginal power by controlling the House and perhaps still the Senate. That will allow them (with Hillary in the White House) to preserve the system as it is, where both parties scratch each other's backs, put up token opposition on various issues, and everybody just keeps enriching themselves at the expense of the People.
For doing what they have done, the GOP deserves to die a painful and lingering death. I, for one, am done with the Party, and will never register as a Republican again: not even to vote in their closed primaries. I'll stick with being a registered independent.
It saddens me very much to write these words, because, only a few short months ago, we had 2 candidates with the potential to lead a desperately-needed Revolution in American politics and culture.
But, alas, I believe it is not to be. The GOPe has overplayed their hand to the point where they have destroyed the party's chances for every possible scenario, except for the one case that appeared like it would happen: Donald Trump winning the nomination.
Now, Donald Trump bears some responsibility for this, as does Ted Cruz, for different reasons.
But the real villain in this tragic sequence of events is the GOPe: Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, Lindsay Graham, John McCain, Bob Dole, the National Review, and all of their elitist ilk.
Yes, folks, I'm still hopeful that somehow something positive will come from the criminal and treasonous Establishment proceedings that we all have been watching before our very eyes. But I doubt it.
It looks like the Revolution will have to wait for at least another four years. That's good enough for the Establishment. As long as they can always delay the inevitable, the inevitable becomes impossible.
The hatred that I feel for the GOPe burns within me with a passion that will never die. Indeed, it only waxes stronger with each Machiavellian shenanigan they pull. It will be on full display at the GOP convention as well, of course.
I can't help but feel a profound sense of loss in looking at the state of affairs that we have arrived at.
No matter what happens at the convention, there will be large masses of GOP voters who will feel totally betrayed by the party leadership, and this will carry all the way through to the general election cycle.
All is lost, IMHO, and I say that as a realist, not a pessimist.
Deal!
Perfect!
Rush and Hannity, pick up line seven.
“The GOPe puts up candidates that cannot win...”
Cruz can’t win and the GOPe know it.
” The GOPe does not want a winner. Maybe it’s been infiltrated by Democrats. “
GOPe’s interest are the same as the democrats interests.
This is an inside the beltway against outside the beltway battle.
It’s the millions of average voters with Trump, against the DNC and the GOPe and Cruz.
Exactly right.
“The RNC does not care one lick if they win the election. “
This is self-evident.
And rinse probus needs to be taken to task for his negligence in allowing Romney et al to cause such disunity.
yea I know the people around here were very anti-Romney— but there was nothing even close to to the effort to stop Romney in general as there is against Trump— It is night and day...
That’s what happens when conservatives can’t unite: McPain, Romney, and now who knows what, Ryan?
“... and Ted Cruz has adopted the Establishment tactics wholeheartedly ...”
I have not seen any evidence of this .. what are you basing it on ..?? I was watching for it when Graham said he was supporting Cruz. However, I have not seen Cruz change his policies or change his method of campaigning. If you have seen such a change, please explain. Thanks.
I will never vote for a Democrat again. I left the Democratic Party twenty plus years ago for the GOP and it looks like I’m politically homeless again. I will not vote for anyone who is picked out of a brokered convention.
Of course. Once Trump and Cruz get 1237 they shut everyone down , then help the GOP win the senate to 60 votes.
And put some starch in what is left of the GOPe.
Of course. Once Trump and Cruz get 1237 they shut everyone down , then help the GOP win the senate to 60 votes.
And put some starch in what is left of the GOPe.
“:Hillary Clinton, is going to wind up with an electoral victory map that looks a lot like Reagan’s.”
If Cruz is the nominee I bet Hillary wins Arkansas.
And that’s all she’ll need for the win.
“I still want Trump to realize big picture and put cruz on the ticket.”
That would be great, and after the few moments of awkwardness, they’d be YUGE enthusiasm for that ticket.
Easy landslide against Hitlery.
Reagan loathed Bush. Remember, voodoo economics?
I think Trump would be able to turn on a dime.
Cruz may have taken to the personal attacks too personally.
Actually, we learned from Carson that Trump attacking Cruz is a COMPLEMENT .
Because of the polls.
You are missing a huge point the down ticket will also GE destroyed with Hillary win and I hope EVERYONE of these BASTARDS loses their seats!!!!
Or lock them into the party when it is being burnt to the ground... figuratively, of course.
Imagine if the GOPe screws Trump out of the nomination, while at the same time Bernie goes into Philadelphia with a lead in regular delegates but loses because of the super-delegates. By 2020 both major parties may be in ruins.
I think Cruz gets the main blame for the coming debacle when he accepted Bush, Romney, and Graham assistance for a NeverTrump coalition. It’s difficult to see a happy ending unless Trump overcomes all obstacles to win. United in patriotism, Trump and Cruz could have guaranteed a conservative ticket and somewhat unified base. Now, there is no candidate visible who can unify the Republican base and it is problematic for Trump to get enough Democrats and Independents. Of course, there could be a cataclysmic event that changes the facts on the ground. Barring that, the odds are the Supreme Court will be liberal to progressive for our lifetime.
You can thank the man from Canada.
I agree. The media establishment, GOP establishment, and the Democratic Party establishment (MOPE, GOPE, and DOPE?) have unleashed their “politics of personal destruction” or PPD machine.
Trump’s withstood the PPD machine better and longer than anyone I’ve seen, but the MOPE/GOPE/DOPE slid it into full throttle once Trump started winning primaries.
Of course, being the stupid party, not even the nominally anti-GOPE Cruz saw the gambit and instead played right into it, agreeing with every anti-Trump attack. Of course, it makes me wonder if he’s just like the rest of the establishment — win at all costs, maintain power at all costs, etc. even at the expense of your fellow anti-establishment Republican.
Phht. Trump has character assassintaed Ted Cruz and his wife. Some people just cant take what they dish out.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.