Posted on 02/03/2016 4:13:22 AM PST by usafa92
On the third day of the UMass Lowell/7News Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Primary Voters, Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican field by a wide margin even after a disappointing second place finish in Iowa on Monday night. Trump's lead over his nearest rival is 24 points -- he stays steady at 38%, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz at 14% (no change) and Sen. Marco Rubio at 12% (+2% change). Three former governors, Jeb Bush of Texas at 9% (no change), John Kasich of Ohio at 7% (-2%) and Chris Christie at 6% (+1% change).
With six days remaining until Granite State voters head to the polls, Trump and Sanders have commanding leads. On the Republican side, Sen. Marco Rubio appears the most likely to offer a challenge to Trump after outperforming expectations by the greatest margin in Iowa's Republican Caucus Monday night. Rubio has gained slowly, but steadily, increasing two points each day since the poll's release on Feb. 1. It remains to be seen whether Rubio will continue to rise after a strong showing in Iowa. He needs big gains in order to get close to Trump's steady 38%.
(Excerpt) Read more at uml.edu ...
this guy is a greedy power whore who will sell to the highest bidder. he is dangerous.
I felt much more comfortable when I was Sure it was Trump and Cruz in the top two places.
But his daughter should take his laptop away.
no more twitter for you!
You’re focusing on Cruz’ 4% lead over Trump, and my thoughts were actually more as to why everybody was so wrong about RUBIO!
I don’t dispute ground game. I gave the other reasons why I think everyone might have been off. That’s all.
See my post #8
“Iowans gave the vote to the candidate that lived the longest in the state, using their moronic voting process, like they have done for decades.”
You’re probably right. However, the Democratic caucus makes the Republican side look positively modern. Flipping a friggin’ COIN to determine an election? That dopey - even for Democrats.
Bingo.
Iowa chose Bush over Reagan.
Enough said.
Lots of the state’s bigwigs will give support to Rubio in SC. They need a strong showing there to give him some cred as just not some fluke. NV is a sideshow, but the GOPe will work their machine to get him a good result.
They need him to make it to Florida. That’s when they will pull out the big guns, like they did for Romney in 2012.
The early states are not winner take all. It’s all about positioning until then.
I will say this: I think Trump will win NH. But as of now polls seem to be worthless.
However, those same worthless polls can no longer be used to justify claims of Trump’s “high negatives” or that “Cruz beats Cankles . . . But Trump can’t” . . . Cause those are all poll results.
Rubio is, and since Yeb’s demise, always has been the GREAT GOPe HOPE. It’s now the Rubio for Cruz bait and switch unless Trump takes both NH and SC.
That's for sure. In fact, a month from now we might look back and marvel that Trump did so well in Iowa, and that in retrospect it was OBVIOUS that was the first sign of a dominating performance.
Of course, we could look back and see it as the "beginning of the end."
I think the REAL story coming out of Iowa is the Ben Carson thing. I'm not supporting Dr Carson, but I sure as hell respect him. If he's accusing someone of a pattern of dishonesty in campaigning... it's a big deal.
I want to see how that plays out.
“See my post #8”
I did, but I’m not as pessimistic about it. Some amount of Jeb! people (all 198 of them) will not switch to Rubio because of the war he’s been having with their guy. Kasich - I have no clue who his people are (the mailman’s union or something?) and I’m sure at least some Christie fans like him because he’s a “straight talker,” so would gravitate more towards Trump or Cruz than Rubio.
I guess the difference is that some people, I think, vote on the personality they like, but by a conservative issues checklist - so I don’t think it’s quite as dire as you predict once those three drop out.
Of course, with the kind of luck I’ve had in the last few elections, you’re probably 100% right after all. :-)
Make “but by” above NOT by.
Note to self: Post when awake.
no, there was no consensus that Trump would run the table
running the table was mentioned as a possibility.
Cruz winning Iowa is however an outlier and not the main stream
I'm still a New Englander at heart, and for most of us there are some things that we like kept private. I'm wondering if the line Cruz crossed with "ShameGate" will hurt him more in New England than it did in Iowa. Also wonder if the "NY values" stuff and the religiously-oriented victory speech work outside of Iowa and similar environments.
I'm 100% Trump. Four years of a Trump presidency and the DC swamp can start getting cleaned up. Don't know how else that can happen.
Trump is a vulgarian. There are other reasons to prefer other candidates, but that is not unimportant.
Trump should win NH easy, but I am afraid Cruz will drop to 3rd behind Rubio with the help of all the media hype.
The polls to watch at this point at in Florida.. if Rubio starts to surge in Florida... all bets are off and this will be an epic struggle all the way to the convention.
Gaffer said: “You’re focusing on Cruz’ 4% lead over Trump, and my thoughts were actually more as to why everybody was so wrong about RUBIO!”
Good point, it could be that Rubio had the best “ground game” of them all. Regardless, I think that it can be said that Trump better work on his ground game if he wants to translate leads in polls to wins. Something was obviously missing there in Iowa. That is, if the point is to “win”, and we know that seems important to Trump.
Rubio already has a hold on Cruz’s ankles and is climbing in New Hampshire, so obviously he should not be underestimated.
Trump definitely didn’t deliver the organization of a ground game that would be required there. As first in the nation, they are (to my mind) some of the most finicky, pandered-to attention seekers in the country every 4 years.
I can live with the results. It basically took the field down to three viable contenders and three distinct choices: Cruz (the Constitutional Conservative); Trump (the Revolutionary); and Rubio (the Establishment GOPe).
I can live with either of the first two. Rubio, I'd rather not. We've been down the GOPe road too many times now.
"Jeb Bush of Texas"??
As a Texan...*shudder*
(I do realize he was born here, but we don't claim him!)
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