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There Is Only ONE Peaceful Path Left To Avoid Destruction
The Market Ticker ^ | 2013-10-25 | Karl Denninger

Posted on 10/25/2013 8:02:43 AM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder

Folks, if you have read me recently you know that I've said that you are the problem and that the reason this is true is that you won't go on strike, you won't picket DC and refuse to leave until the government stops stealing from you and debasing the currency, you won't reduce your spending and income to only that which provides necessities, and most of you go on to justify your behavior with "my kids (and/or family) deserve what I can provide."

You're fools and I'm going to prove it.

Further, I'm going to prove -- by arithmetic -- that if you follow the above path you will destroy yourself along with your children and grandchildren.

Here's why.

There were 108,592,000 people in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2011 who were recipients of one or more means-tested government benefit programs, the Census Bureau said in data released this week. Meanwhile, according to the Census Bureau, there were 101,716,000 people who worked full-time year round in 2011. That included both private-sector and government workers.

None of the people getting means-tested government benefits will ever vote to reduce them, nor vote for any politician that will reduce them.

But it's factually much worse than it first appears because federal government workers will not vote to fire themselves either, just as the 17th Amendment (ed: The worst thing to ever happen to this country) is inviolate because The Senate will never vote to fire itself.

So we must in fact subtract 21,880,000 from the full-time worker count.

In other words you're outvoted by 36%.

Does it make sense yet? This is not a small margin and it cannot be politically reversed because the margins are too high. Were the skew relatively small (and it looks small until you subtract out federal workers) you could potentially do so, because some people won't vote and you could "motivate the base." But note that with the federal workers out, and we're not subtracting the State workers, which also exist on this same largesse, you can't get there because this means nearly 40% of those receiving such benefits would have to stay home when reductions are proposed, and they never will.

As such you cannot vote your way out of this.

You cannot politically organize your way out of this.

You can't do it in the Democrat Party and you can't do it in the Republican Party. Nor can you do it in a third party.

Every single person who argues otherwise is an idiot or worse, a fraudster (if they have run the numbers above.)

Delusions persist because people don't examine the facts in detail. I recognize that I participated in attempting to politically change things for far too long because I did not look, in detail, at the math.

But I can no longer make any logical argument that political activism is useful in any way, shape or form. It is a waste of energy, time and money that I can expend elsewhere on something that brings me more joy, rather than tilting at windmills.

There is only one remaining peaceful way to change things: Withdraw your consent and thus intentionally but peacefully and lawfully destabilize the underpinning of the government debt market, thereby denying the government the means to continue screwing you, your children and grandchildren irrespective of the vote count.

The only other choices remaining are consenting to your own economic death, along with that of your children and grandchildren, or violence.

If you claim that you will "get yours" for "your kids" (or your spouse, or just yourself) you're deluding yourself as the odds are that (1) you will fail and (2) even if you "succeed" the victory will be both temporary and pyrrhic as you cannot overcome the voting block deficiency.

In short, read this Ticker again in light of the above mathematical facts.

Then act, or not, but the math doesn't care if you agree with it or not.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Science; Society
KEYWORDS: debt; denninger; doom; entitlements; formom; spending; toast
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To: Albion Wilde

Very astute observations, from inside. Thank you for them.
The true larger objectives foisted through the aged, who are in fear and... ultimately dependent on the young, and watching TV all day (MSM) to indoctrinate them.

While destroying the generations through the voting of funds.

De Tocqueville wrote about this.


41 posted on 10/25/2013 9:49:34 AM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: Albion Wilde

I’m talking about the seniors who go to Tea Party meetings and go to Washington and so on....not the invalids.....


42 posted on 10/25/2013 10:00:11 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (Tokyo Rove is more than a name, it's a GREAT WEBSITE)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

He used ‘math’ to prove that the system can not continue on its present path and he has thru previous articles shown that via exponential math the takers ‘growth’ over the last 30 years is unsustainable. That ‘growth’ has occurred irregardless of whom was in power. Hence, the author wishes to not contribute to the system that math says MUST collapse. You still seem to think that R equates to ‘conservative’. Good luck with that. Forgive me if I still don’t seem to understand as I am/was a government employee and am ‘slow’...........


43 posted on 10/25/2013 10:09:18 AM PDT by yadent
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To: yadent

You are probably the author....and yet, you have zero understanding of the point I am trying to make. I will no longer cast my pearls before swine.......you simply cannot understand the written word.


44 posted on 10/25/2013 10:10:47 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (Tokyo Rove is more than a name, it's a GREAT WEBSITE)
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To: John S Mosby

The board of elections requires a team of one Democrat and one Republican to be present to distribute the absentee ballots to seniors, ostensibly to prevent fraud. But now that Maryland has a “permanent” overwhelmingly Democrat legislature and establishment, those Republican helpers are actually helping the Democrats to garner even more votes, from those who would otherwise be unable to toddle to the polls — elderly FDR-JFK enthusiasts who, as you noted, are indoctrinated by television but not up to the speed of internet research.

My Republican friend has decided not to “help” any more. The fewer Republicans available, the fewer teams can be sent out in the county, at least by present law.


45 posted on 10/25/2013 10:15:39 AM PDT by Albion Wilde ("Remember... the first revolutionary was Satan."--Russian Orthodox Archpriest Dmitry Smirnov)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

So be it. I don’t know about the ‘pearls’ but thanks for your monied support!!


46 posted on 10/25/2013 10:15:43 AM PDT by yadent
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To: yadent
Sorry, I just have an aversion to ignorance.....so I'll give you a few more pearls: I was ONLY....as in EXCLUSIVELY.....and SPECIFICALLY...talking about THIS from the article:

In other words you're outvoted by 36%.

Does it make sense yet? This is not a small margin and it cannot be politically reversed because the margins are too high. Were the skew relatively small (and it looks small until you subtract out federal workers) you could potentially do so, because some people won't vote and you could "motivate the base." But note that with the federal workers out, and we're not subtracting the State workers, which also exist on this same largesse, you can't get there because this means nearly 40% of those receiving such benefits would have to stay home when reductions are proposed, and they never will.

That VOTING math is flawed. The fiscal problems he mentioned seem valid......but go check the thread...the ONLY thing I ever questioned was the voter count...something YOU NEVER addressed.....

47 posted on 10/25/2013 10:24:03 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (Tokyo Rove is more than a name, it's a GREAT WEBSITE)
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To: Albion Wilde

Probably “proxy” repubs— ie not registered standins who are in the machine. Amazing Maryland a total machine of fed retirees, mixed with Catholic presumed social— what, conservatives. It is a long way from Charles Carroll, Irish Catholic Founder/Signer of Declaration.

The machinery supports all kinds of teat suckers, wherever it is setup, and trumps the values in the hierarchy of needs, apparently. Disgusting really. No surprise Nancy (D’alessandro- as in mayor of Baltimore’s daughter) Pelosi is a shining national example of a true machine ‘ho. And... an evil moron.


48 posted on 10/25/2013 11:23:28 AM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

Oh I addressed it. You never caught on nor understood. Are you or have ever been a ‘taker’? I have been, as defined, a ‘taker’ for the last 25+ years. I understand and know ‘takers’ of ALL political stripes. The 36% number, if taken as a solely political philosophical vote, is probably too high. But if taken as a pocketbook issue vote, irregardless of political affiliation, is dead on. Maybe a little low. That ‘ONLY’ thing you questioned is the basis for the whole article. That ONLY thing should scare the crap outta ya. That number is growing and is being nurtured in its growth by government policies. Exponential math dictates an economic end point in the near future because of those policies. If voters continue to support present governing policies then they, the voters, support by default that coming end point. As for ‘ignorance’, well I’ve made a good living and continue to do so off of it........


49 posted on 10/25/2013 11:41:58 AM PDT by yadent
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder

2011 Census
108,592,000- recipients of one or more means-tested government benefit programs
101,716,000 - people who worked full-time
21,880,000 – of the 101,716,000 are Federal workers

He claims:
108,592,000+21,880,000 = 130,472,000 is the number of Big Gov voters
101,716,000 -21,880,000 = 79,836,000 Small Gov voters
39% Disparity in voting towards Big Gov

His solution is to cut back on taxes that are going to Big Gov by lowering the paying middle classes taxable income and trimming our necessities. Starve the beast and force the Big Gov voters back to work. With his percentages, I do not see this ever working, and to purposely remove initiative from people is not smart.

I don’t think we are too far gone yet.

My revised numbers:
30% of the 108,592,000 are retired patriots 32,577,600 Small Gov
10% of the Fed Workers 2,027,062 are Small Gov
65% of US Military is conservative (which is part of the 21,880,000 Federal Workers)
Total number of US Military = 2,475,967x65% = 1,609,379 Small Gov
30% of remaining people working full time will vote Big Gov 81,445,379 x30% = 24,433,614

Total Potential Voters
210,308,000

Gov Dole 108,592,000
Conserv 30% -32,577,600
Total 76,014,400.00

Fed Workers 21,880,000
10% Fed Work -2,027,062
65% US Military -1,609,379
Total 18,243,559

Remaing Full Time for Big Gov 81,445,379x30%
Total 24,433,614

76,014,400.00
18,243,559
24,433,614

118,691,573 Total Big Gov Voters

Total Potential Voters 210,308,000
Total Big Gov Voters -118,691,573
Total Small Gov Voters 91,616,427.00

A 23% Disparity. We have our work cut out for us.

My solution:
Get 30% of the 108,592,000 back to reality by having a job. This could shift the voting percentages 10% toward Small Gov, which would get us back on track.


50 posted on 10/25/2013 11:49:35 AM PDT by bondserv (God governs our reality and has seen fit to offer us a pardon.)
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To: bondserv

As I mentioned previously your numbers, if taken on a political philosophical vote basis, are probably close but if taken on a pocketbook issue vote are most likely too low and would most likely be closer to the 36% number.....human nature being what it is.


51 posted on 10/25/2013 12:04:54 PM PDT by yadent
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To: yadent

Based on the last presidential election there was only a 5% or so difference. If we shift it 10%, we could potentially be back to Government like during Reagan and early Clinton.

With 100 Trillion in unfunded liabilities, changing Medicade/Medicare and Social Security needs to happen sooner than later. We just need the votes and an inspired group of conservatives leading the charge.


52 posted on 10/25/2013 12:15:13 PM PDT by bondserv (God governs our reality and has seen fit to offer us a pardon.)
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To: yadent
The 36% number, if taken as a solely political philosophical vote, is probably too high.

Then we basically AGREE....but your remain a low information poster...because everything else you mentioned????? I pretty much agreed with the author on that from the get go. Now get off your high horse, shut up and go back and read my entire thread and you'll see that.......

53 posted on 10/25/2013 12:26:18 PM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (Tokyo Rove is more than a name, it's a GREAT WEBSITE)
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To: bondserv

Just spoke with the author of this article. His figures were derived from the latest Census and St Louis Fed numbers.


54 posted on 10/25/2013 12:28:13 PM PDT by yadent
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To: bondserv

“.....A 23% Disparity. We have our work cut out for us.....”

I respect your effort at confirmation, and to clarify, I re-posted the article not as a doomsaying exercise but..... not far from it.

In electronics, we say that if one factor outweighs another by 10:1, the smaller one is swamped. Thing is, many, many elections are won and lost by 2.3% margins, as you must know. So if you/we cut the excess by 90%.....we STILL have our work cut out for us.

And to ask a rhetorical question, one has to ponder, how many will stand up for pure principles versus the protective hand of a government that may, at that juncture, provide the populace with potentially badly disrupted [emergency] food supplies...even if those efforts are poorly run...protection , imagined or actual, against feral mobs (that they themselves incite) and various forms of subsidized (or tax-exempt) behavior in forms we can’t even imagine.


55 posted on 10/25/2013 12:32:23 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (At no time was the Obama administration aware of what the Obama administration was doing)
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder
Mathematical inevitability or not, this will probably be resolved in some unpredictable "black swan" scenario. As a side note on Drudge today for example, Iran announces 34 new nuclear sites in the works (while the US govt intentionally blows up its own national medical infrastructure). Obviously, "QE infinity" spells ultimate doom for the USA in any event.

Just continue to give me my Netflix ...

56 posted on 10/25/2013 12:38:27 PM PDT by omniscient
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To: C. Edmund Wright

I am sooo relieved that we basically agree. Now as for your more ‘colorful’ remarks, please visually inspect the recesses of your large colon. You have a good one now.


57 posted on 10/25/2013 1:02:51 PM PDT by yadent
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder
There are visionaries. From Heinlein to Rodenberry, George Orwell to Ayn Rand, people who write the scripts of things to come.

Unfortunately, Rand and Orwell were accurate.

5.56mm

58 posted on 10/25/2013 1:10:53 PM PDT by M Kehoe
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To: yadent

Not sure what you mean by that...you were the one that it took ten posts to figure it out...I knew we had common ground from the get go....and said as much in my very first post....


59 posted on 10/25/2013 1:30:51 PM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (Tokyo Rove is more than a name, it's a GREAT WEBSITE)
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