Intrade Odds 79.0 Obama 20.6 Romney

Intrade ^ | Current | Intrade

[stocksthatgoup]

Obama 79 Romney 21

[stocksthatgoup]

Just a question. With polls so skewed isn't this a good opportunity to pick up a few bucks before we get to close the election. I have to believe that the odds are going to remain so skewed. I believe one could buy a Romney bet today and sell it on Nov 5th for a nice profit. What do you all think?

[tatown]

If this is being manipulated, whoever is doing the manipulation has gone to great lengths to manipulate each of the battleground states as well.

[Servant of the Cross]

I’m surprised that the 0 campaign is spending so much of their campaign funds on betting at Intrade.

[nevergore]

Buy it....odds are not going to get better before the election.....

Nothing would be sweeter than having a Romney win and a pile of cash....

[LS]

Same market that was 90:1 that Obamacare would be overturned by USSC. Yep, they’re infallible.

[ICE-FLYER]

“Obama 79 Romney 21”

R I I I I I I I I I I I I I I G G G T

[LS]

Or, you can donate the same money to Romney to guarantee a R victory.

[Mr. Silverback]

OK, this has to be manipulation. Even if you believe the polls, there’s nothing about the current state of the race that means “Obama is a sure thing.” Just the fact that both camps are saying it’s tight should be enough to deter someone.

[Zajko]

Odds with bookmakers in the UK (William Hill, Ladbrokes) are even more skewed: Obama 83 / Romney 17.

[caprock]

Exactly! How long ago were we driving in fear of encountering a Toyota Prius on the road? Oh, the HORROR!!!

[1035rep]

Mitt Romney’s vice president choice July 2012

Paul Ryan Intrade chances: 4.1%

Rob Portman Intrade chances: 32%

[FlingWingFlyer]

Any idea what Intrade says that the odds are that America will no longer exist after the Kommie Kenyan is reelected?

[HenryArmitage]

bunch of gambling site odds all together

[TheConservator]

What’s the total amount being wagered on the election? I bet it’s quite small, and therefore easy to manipulate.

[ProudFossil]

My question on this is if the figures are true, then how many Republicans are voting for Obama? Assume the percentages of voters are 1/3 Dims, 1/3 Independents, and 1/3 Republicans. To get almost 80% of the vote means that all the Dims, all the Independents, and almost half of the Republicans are voting for Obama.

Something does not compute. (Of course I did not allow for dead people, illegals, felons, and multiple votings)

[Conscience of a Conservative]

Same market that was 90:1 that Obamacare would be overturned by USSC. Yep, they’re infallible.

Predictions about a Supreme Court ruling bear no resemblance to predictions about election results. Markets like this work by "pricing in" information relevant to the prediction. The Supreme Court is, effectively, a black box: until a decision is released, there is very little information with which to make a prediction. With an election, on the other hand, there is an almost endless stream of information one can use to: polls (even skewed polls provide useful information, as long as the internals are released), economic data, other external indicators, etc.

[ctdonath2]

One of the few “polls” that I’d trust.
Stop relying on “oh, the polls are wrong” and start relying on convincing people to vote R.

[arista]

To get almost 80% of the vote means that all the Dims, all the Independents, and almost half of the Republicans are voting for Obama.

Intrade is not saying that Obama will get 80% of the vote. It is saying Obama has an 80% chance of winning.

[Arthurio]

Intrade had Kerry up 90 to 10 on election day 2004 when the bad exit polls were being leaked.

The gamblers betting on Intrade are not “in the know.” ... They’re simply playing off the same conventional wisdom that you see in the media.

[Red in Blue PA]

http://money.cnn.com/2001/11/29/investing/q_enronanalysts/index.htm