[ProudFossil]

My question on this is if the figures are true, then how many Republicans are voting for Obama? Assume the percentages of voters are 1/3 Dims, 1/3 Independents, and 1/3 Republicans. To get almost 80% of the vote means that all the Dims, all the Independents, and almost half of the Republicans are voting for Obama.

Something does not compute. (Of course I did not allow for dead people, illegals, felons, and multiple votings)

[arista]

To get almost 80% of the vote means that all the Dims, all the Independents, and almost half of the Republicans are voting for Obama.

Intrade is not saying that Obama will get 80% of the vote. It is saying Obama has an 80% chance of winning.

[Zajko]

Odds don’t reflect percentage of people who’ll supposedly vote for Obama. Merely the % chance, in the bookmaker’s opinion, of who will win the election. And thus the amount you have to stake in order to get a return of $100 if you pick the winner.

If you genuinely believe Romney will win, then you can get a 500% return on your investment if you back him now and are correct.

[Conscience of a Conservative]

My question on this is if the figures are true, then how many Republicans are voting for Obama? Assume the percentages of voters are 1/3 Dims, 1/3 Independents, and 1/3 Republicans. To get almost 80% of the vote means that all the Dims, all the Independents, and almost half of the Republicans are voting for Obama.

This isn't a vote, it's a prediction; it has no bearing on, and is not reflective of, the margin of predicted victory/loss for either candidate. 80% of predictors (or, rather, 80% of dollars in the prediction market) could believe that Obama will win by a margin of 50.01% to 49.99%, and the numbers here would be the same.