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One of the few “polls” that I’d trust.
Stop relying on “oh, the polls are wrong” and start relying on convincing people to vote R.

See post 19. If you trust Intrade, you’re trusting the media. Most media sources thought the chances of the SCOTUS overturning Obamacare were very high based on the way oral arguments went, so (Surprise!!) Intrade thought the chances were very high.

One of the few “polls” that I’d trust.
Stop relying on “oh, the polls are wrong” and start relying on convincing people to vote R.

There's really no way to convince people to vote R for one simple reason: the Republican party is a lie.
Let me explain:

The party itself does so little to pursue its stated party-planks that it is, effectively, "a great win" whenever even the smallest token of effort is put forward towards them. in effect they treat the constituents with the contempt that Obama did in his "clinging bitterly" statement -- what's the difference between the two: not a whole lot actually, and precisely because the Republican party [as a whole] is not about what it says it is.

2nd Amendment -- When was the last time that the Republican party really pursued application of the 2nd Amendment, as it is written? Never in my political lifetime. {And no, the Assault Weapon Ban does not count. Why? Because it had a sunset clause in it and they literally had to do nothing for it to cease operation.} They have never, as a party, even entertained the idea of repealing the GCA or NFA.
Abortion -- This one is really damning. If they so believe abortion to be murder, then why did they do jack-shit during Bush's tenure when they had the Executive and the Legislative? Not even a token act, like a resolution stating that anyone crossing state lines for an abortion would be charged with federal [crossing state lines] murder. (Roe v. Wade is also, itself, incredibly suspect: the USSC forced the states to violate the 14th & 5th amendments and therefore the decision itself is null.)
Small government -- When have they seriously put forward the dissolution of government agencies?
Responsible government -- The Fast & Furious fiasco shows this to be a lie. They have more than enough information to bust skulls; especially since the operation was an unauthorized act of war and, by definition, state sponsored terrorism.
Loyalty -- Remember NY-23? Where the national party endorsed the Democratic candidate rather than the Tea Party winner of the Republican primary. Yeah, says a lot.
Morality -- Remember the proposed rule-changes for delegates? It shows the immoral heart of a authoritarian, if not an out-and-out statist. -- Also there's that distasteful "the ayes have it" on the teleprompter before the voice-vote finished.

With the selection and anointment of Statist/Fabian-socialist Romney, even before the primaries, the Republican party has said that none of those matter; only "electability." What they fail to realize is that by being a party that stands for nothing they will end up leading only those who will fall for anything.