[Conscience of a Conservative]

Same market that was 90:1 that Obamacare would be overturned by USSC. Yep, they’re infallible.

Predictions about a Supreme Court ruling bear no resemblance to predictions about election results. Markets like this work by "pricing in" information relevant to the prediction. The Supreme Court is, effectively, a black box: until a decision is released, there is very little information with which to make a prediction. With an election, on the other hand, there is an almost endless stream of information one can use to: polls (even skewed polls provide useful information, as long as the internals are released), economic data, other external indicators, etc.

[Arthurio]

See no. 19.

[1035rep]

“Markets like this work by “pricing in” information relevant to the prediction”

Like this one?

Paul Ryan Intrade chances: 4.1%

[LS]

I get it. You mean like pricing in poll info? Yeah, that's solid evidence.

BTW, where do you think Intrade would be if they saw the early voting # s from OH?