[stocksthatgoup]

Just a question. With polls so skewed isn't this a good opportunity to pick up a few bucks before we get to close the election. I have to believe that the odds are going to remain so skewed. I believe one could buy a Romney bet today and sell it on Nov 5th for a nice profit. What do you all think?

[tatown]

If this is being manipulated, whoever is doing the manipulation has gone to great lengths to manipulate each of the battleground states as well.

[Servant of the Cross]

I’m surprised that the 0 campaign is spending so much of their campaign funds on betting at Intrade.

[nevergore]

Buy it....odds are not going to get better before the election.....

Nothing would be sweeter than having a Romney win and a pile of cash....

[LS]

Same market that was 90:1 that Obamacare would be overturned by USSC. Yep, they’re infallible.

[ICE-FLYER]

“Obama 79 Romney 21”

R I I I I I I I I I I I I I I G G G T

[LS]

Or, you can donate the same money to Romney to guarantee a R victory.

[Mr. Silverback]

OK, this has to be manipulation. Even if you believe the polls, there’s nothing about the current state of the race that means “Obama is a sure thing.” Just the fact that both camps are saying it’s tight should be enough to deter someone.

[Zajko]

Odds with bookmakers in the UK (William Hill, Ladbrokes) are even more skewed: Obama 83 / Romney 17.

[1035rep]

Mitt Romney’s vice president choice July 2012

Paul Ryan Intrade chances: 4.1%

Rob Portman Intrade chances: 32%

[FlingWingFlyer]

Any idea what Intrade says that the odds are that America will no longer exist after the Kommie Kenyan is reelected?

[ProudFossil]

My question on this is if the figures are true, then how many Republicans are voting for Obama? Assume the percentages of voters are 1/3 Dims, 1/3 Independents, and 1/3 Republicans. To get almost 80% of the vote means that all the Dims, all the Independents, and almost half of the Republicans are voting for Obama.

Something does not compute. (Of course I did not allow for dead people, illegals, felons, and multiple votings)

[ctdonath2]

One of the few “polls” that I’d trust.
Stop relying on “oh, the polls are wrong” and start relying on convincing people to vote R.

[Arthurio]

Intrade had Kerry up 90 to 10 on election day 2004 when the bad exit polls were being leaked.

The gamblers betting on Intrade are not “in the know.” ... They’re simply playing off the same conventional wisdom that you see in the media.

[Red in Blue PA]

http://money.cnn.com/2001/11/29/investing/q_enronanalysts/index.htm

[HereInTheHeartland]

Take the bet.

My guess is the voters with IQ’s like a squirrel won't be voting as heavily this time.

[pabianice]

Romney's that high?

Well, one good thing. This is the end of the Republican Party.

[Austin Vet]

Intrade was wrong by a similar margin on the Obamacare decision.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=745353

[Mr. K]

i would place a bet on that NOW

how much would you win if you bet $1000?

[mamelukesabre]

Sounds reasonable to me. But why buy now? Wait until obama hits 90%.

[Theoria]

Intrade does fine. In 2008 McCain was making inroads until he started running around like a fool.

Did Intrade correctly predict the 2008 Presidential Election?

The answer is - without a doubt.  The Intrade prediction market was forecasting a sizeable Obama victory for most of the election season, and correctly predicted the results of nearly every state in the Union.

Shown below is a graph which uses the state-by-state betting data from the Intrade prediction market.  The graph shows the total number of electoral votes Barack Obama was predicted to win from late May until election day.  States had to be trading above 55 on the prediction market to count toward the total number of forecasted electoral votes. 

Barack Obama was predicted to win over 270 Electoral votes (the winning threshold) for most of the election season, except for a few weeks during the late summer.  Once the sub-prime lending mess began to unravel on Wall Street, Intrade predicted an overwhelming victory for Senator Obama.

Shown below is the same chart for Senator McCain.  At no time during the entire election season was John McCain forecasted to win 270 or more electoral votes.  Immediately after naming Alaska governor Sarah Palin as his running mate McCain saw a brief surge in his forecasted EV count, which quickly dissipated.  Senator McCain consistently found himself in the position of needing to win every single swing state to be able to secure a winning 270 electoral votes.

There was only one point in mid-September when McCain was actually forecasted to win more electoral votes than Obama.  Other than that, Obama enjoyed a sizeable lead for most of the election season.  Shown below is a graph of Obama's lead over McCain during the election season.

See Also:  Intrade compared to the polling data