Posted on 11/13/2007 12:58:15 PM PST by Hydroshock
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of existing homes in the U.S. are forecast to decline to a five-year low in 2007, a trade group for real estate agents said Tuesday - and the outlook for 2008 is worsening.
The ninth-straight downwardly revised monthly forecast from the National Association of Realtors calls for U.S. existing home sales to fall 12.7 percent this year to 5.66 million, down from 6.48 million last year.
Last month, the association predicted a 10.8 percent drop from a year ago.
This year's sales would be the lowest since 2002, when sales hit 5.63 million. The realtors group forecasts sales will rise slightly next year to 5.69 million, but that is down from last month's prediction of 6.12 million.
The trade group's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said the housing market is likely to experience a "modest" recovery next year as mortgage markets stabilize.
"It is possible for even higher home sales activity than we're forecasting if buyers regain their confidence," he said in a prepared statement.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
Cheaper than where I am in PA.
Taxes back east are alway higher.
Von Mises Bump.
That "all time high" comes about as a result of shyster loans (interest only, no down payment, no verification of employment) that have driven up prices to the point that those types of loans are the only way people can afford the high-priced homes in some areas of the country. If it were harder to get loans, then home prices would fall and more people could afford the normal loans. It's like how cutting taxes will increase government tax revenue. It's counterintuitive, but that's how it works. Your theory of writing hot checks and living high off of the proceeds of them works in the short term, but is not a great long-term strategy for managing the healthiness of either a personal economy or the national economy.
And for me, there's no sour grapes at all. I bought my home with 20% down to avoid the PMI, got a 30-year fixed rate loan, and only bought what I could afford. And since I live in a part of Texas where the prices haven't been speculated into the stratosphere, the value has gone up every year since, because there is no bubble to come down from.
Realtors in several states are trying to keep discount brokerage firms from selling some services but not others. Realtors are seeking to influence legislators to forces everyone to sell the entire set of services or nothing.
I’m sure I can find more about it, if you are interested.
Also, I realize that buyers don’t pay anything, except that the real estate commission is factored into the price of the home. Duh!
Real estate agents are no different from most business people. They will use the force of government to protect their turf when possible.
Real estate agents have done their best to limit competition. It is only recently that they have been forced to allow discount firms to list their properties on MLS.
Realtors are still attempting to use the force of government to limit competition. Unfortunately for them, the internet will be the undoing of their last efforts to keep others out of the business.
Anyone is free to sell their home on their own, and the internet is available to anyone. We many not have all the services a realtor has with respect to the MLS, etc, but it’s still possible to market your home on your own. Actually there are some realty agencies that are willing to work with FSBO’s. Our Credit Union has a realty agency attached, and they are offering to list FSBO’s on the MLS.
Everyone in a market is trying to manipulate the market.
Then why complain about the NAR? By admission, when you are in the market you are attempting to manipulate it too.
“Realtors are still attempting to use the force of government to limit competition.”
Nobody is FORCED to use a real estate agent. Nobody. If a seller does not feel that the advantages of listing with a real estate agent does not support the fee, they will not list and sell their property another way.
Those ‘shyster’ loans are but a small percentage of all loans made.
Home ownership is at an all time high because people can afford homes due to a robust economy.
Supply and demand at work will drive prices up.
Home prices will always trend upward so long as population expands and inflation exists in an economy. Making homes harder to purchase by increasing the cost (20% down) will have negligible effect as people will still have to live SOMEWHERE. Rents will go up, less property will be available for rental (shortage) and investors will purchase homes to rent to families who do not have the 20% entry point.
Let’s try loose the Mr. Potter mindset, eh?
LOL! Indeed!
Thanks. Good read. There is so much that goes on behind the scenes. Watching the financial talking heads is mostly useless as channels like CNBC-BS intentionally confuse the issue by having several opposing opinions voiced. Unless you do a lot of reading and homework, you can’t tell who is really at the heart of the matter, and who is blowing smoke. All for public consumption, of course. Got to keep the “Confidence” in the confidence game going or it’s game over, please insert another quarter for extended play....
Good points. Thank you. I agree that the bottom is still some time out. These markets take some time to deflate. Lots of people will hang onto the home until they realize they need to sell or have to sell, then the REAL selling prices start kicking in.
I’m not saying the bottom can’t hit in 2 years or less, but I don’t expect that to happen. I think we will be near bottom late next year and then 2 or 3 years sliding to the bottom bottom, before lots of years of flat, stable home prices with little to know appreciation.
That assumes we don’t see mASSive inflation return. If that is the case, then inflation will catch the falling house prices. But who cares? Mortgage interest rates will be 10% and there will be NO selling homes anyway. Musical chairs and the music will have stopped. Folks will feel like they have more money in their homes but their won’t be any way to liquidate it.
Thanks for the bonus quote! Rings true.
And we won’t be seeing all them home equity loans to by flat screen HDTV’s, boasts, vacations, or new SUV’s neither.
"Let me issue and control a nation's money supply, and I care not who makes its laws."
~~Mayer Amschel Rothschild
"I am one of those who do not believe the national debt is a national blessing... it is calculated to raise around the administration a moneyed aristocracy dangerous to the liberties of the country."
~~Andrew Jackson, letter, April 26, 1824
I have ever been the enemy of banks, not of those discounting for cash, but of those foisting their own paper into circulation, and thus banishing our cash. My zeal against those institutions was so warm and open at the establishment of the Bank of the United States, that I was derided as a maniac by the tribe of bank-mongers, who were seeking to filch from the public their swindling and barren gains.
~~Thomas Jefferson to John Adams, 1814
I am an enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for anything but coin.
Thomas Jefferson to Dr. Thomas Cooper, 1814
Just to be clear about the NAR - this is actually funny, in a way:
Real consumer spending is falling off rapidly.
I think this Christmas shopping season will be very telling in predicting the economy next year.
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