Posted on 11/13/2007 12:58:15 PM PST by Hydroshock
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of existing homes in the U.S. are forecast to decline to a five-year low in 2007, a trade group for real estate agents said Tuesday - and the outlook for 2008 is worsening.
The ninth-straight downwardly revised monthly forecast from the National Association of Realtors calls for U.S. existing home sales to fall 12.7 percent this year to 5.66 million, down from 6.48 million last year.
Last month, the association predicted a 10.8 percent drop from a year ago.
This year's sales would be the lowest since 2002, when sales hit 5.63 million. The realtors group forecasts sales will rise slightly next year to 5.69 million, but that is down from last month's prediction of 6.12 million.
The trade group's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said the housing market is likely to experience a "modest" recovery next year as mortgage markets stabilize.
"It is possible for even higher home sales activity than we're forecasting if buyers regain their confidence," he said in a prepared statement.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
The bottom is at least 3-4 years out, minimum.
Funny, NAR is a polictical shill (and MSM and other gov agencies), because, local gov's do not want to be forced to devalue homes because that spells lost tax revenues. Use to be on average, the tax man always kept the tax value of a home at 20% below market to take in to account the housing cycles, but, that's not the case anymore.
Because of their money addictions, many local gov's push values to 90-95% of the market 3-4 year average.
Think about it, here in my area, (RTP, NC), reassessments occurred every 8 years. NO more, now it's every 4 and many assessment just based upon drive by video.
~~Ludwig von Mises
Jefferson on paper money and fractional banking:
The crisis of the abuses of banking is arrived. The banks have pronounced their own sentence of death. Between two and three hundred millions of dollars of their promissory notes are in the hands of the people, for solid produce and property sold, and they formally declare they will not pay them. This is an act of bankruptcy, of course, and will be so pronounced by any court before which it shall be brought. But cui bono? The laws can only uncover their insolvency, by opening to its suitors their empty vaults. Thus by the dupery of our citizens, and tame acquiescence of our legislators, the nation is plundered of two or three hundred millions of dollars, treble the amount of debt contracted in the Revolutionary war, and which, instead of redeeming our liberty, has been expended on sumptuous houses, carriages, and dinners. A fearful tax! if equalized on all; but overwhelming and convulsive by its partial fall. Everything predicted by the enemies of banks, in the beginning, is now coming to pass. We are to be ruined now by the deluge of bank paper, as we were formerly by the old Continental paper. It is cruel that such revolutions in private fortunes should be at the mercy of avaricious adventurers, who, instead of employing their capital, if any they have, in manufactures, commerce, and other useful pursuits, make it an instrument to burthen all the interchanges of property with their swindling profits, profits which are the price of no useful industry of theirs. Prudent men must be on their guard in this game of Robin's alive, and take care that the spark does not extinguish in their hands. I am an enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for anything but coin. But our whole country is so fascinated by this Jack-lantern wealth, that they will not stop short of its total and fatal explosion.
~~Thomas Jefferson to Dr. Thomas Cooper, 1814
Nice size. What are the taxes if you don’t mind me asking.
Housing prices always go up and down. Do you blame your car salesman when the factory raises the price or builds a Pinto that nobody wants?
Why blame the Trade Organization of salespeople?
The NAR analyzes the market and forecasts the upcoming market.
All too many of you posters here are blaming the salesperson for the market.
Shame.
Do you think that when we disrespect the Teachers Union we are disrespecting teachers?”
The NAR is not a bank. It does not lend. It is merely an organization of salespeople - independent business men and women who all OWN their own business. Teachers are employees.
The NAR does not force people to buy or sell.
The NAR has professional standards. Ongoing, required training. The NAR stands for National Association of Realtors(r). Anyone can be a real estate salesperson, but you must have lots of training to become a Realtor(r).
On a related note, check out Minyanvilles take on yesterdays stock rally:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/rally-WMT-stocks/index/a/14869
Home ownership is at an all time high. Sour grapes, my friend. Sour grapes.
>>Housing prices always go up and down. Do you blame your car salesman when the factory raises the price or builds a Pinto that nobody wants?<<
No. And I am not blaming the salespeople here.
I am talking about the NAR. Just as someone can blame the teachers union but not teachers for problems in education I am blaming the NAR and not salespeople. Both my wife and I were among those salespeople not all that long ago.
>>Housing prices always go up and down. Do you blame your car salesman when the factory raises the price or builds a Pinto that nobody wants?<<
No. And I am not blaming the salespeople here.
I am talking about the NAR. Just as someone can blame the teachers union but not teachers for problems in education I am blaming the NAR and not salespeople. Both my wife and I were among those salespeople not all that long ago.
It is a FREE market. It costs you a fee to LIST your property with a Realtor(r). There is no fee involved to purchase.
If you do not want to spend the money for listing your property, if you do not feel that the fee is worth the benefit, sell your property some other way.
Free markets are a good thing. Stop complaining when you have them, otherwise you will, most assuredly, will not have them in the future.
David Coulthard? He’s a GREAT driver, unfortunately I have never had the good fortune to meet him.
Oh, and if you looked at my ‘About’ page you would see I live a bit West of the District of Columia.
What is wrong with lobbying? It’s common. The NAR does not and cannot manipulate markets. That would be illegal. You are intelligent enough to know that.
“I am talking about the NAR. Just as someone can blame the teachers union but not teachers for problems in education I am blaming the NAR and not salespeople. Both my wife and I were among those salespeople not all that long ago.”
And what did the NAR FORCE you to do?
>>And what did the NAR FORCE you to do?<<
Nothing.
But then, that is not germane to the thread.
I don't know of any governmental restrictions for buying or selling your own home. There is no Realtor cost to YOU in BUYING a home. The commissions charged by Realtors to SELL your home are their compensation for the time they spend in getting your house on the market; advertising, broker open houses with food, etc, the time checking out possible buyers, and the shepherding of the sale through the process. Most Realtors will not waste their own time taking folks through a home if they don't think they can afford to buy it, unless it is just part of a tour to show buyers what all is out there. I enjoy seeing houses that are beyond our range, because it gives us ideas about how to do improvements to our home. Since we decided to sell and move, we go to Open Houses just to see what our competition is going to be. It also helps us see what sells, and what doesn't, by looking at which houses sold quickly, and which are still languishing on the market 6 months later.
We've considered doing a For Sale By Owner, and nowadays, you can sign up with internet realty companies that, for a small fee, will list your home on the MLS, which is the Holy Grail of Real Estate. If you can get your home on Realtor.com, potential buyers will see it, and can either contact you directly, or, if they're working with a Realtor, can have that person bring them to see the house. You, as the seller, have the option of offering a commission to the Realtor who brings the successful buyer. THAT gives Realtors an incentive to bring their clients to see your home, and widens your potential buying market considerably.
Say WHAT, Suzi??
Buyer's and seller's realtors split the commission all the time, all over the country.
And the 6% the seller pays the realtor could be a 3% price break to the buyer and 3% more for the seller if there was no realtor involved.
Not to say that realtors have no value. We could not have sold our house (vacant, we had already moved out of town) in the declining market of early '06 without one. But in the housing boom of 2002-04 many realtors were collecting huge commissions for almost zero work.
The region I am commenting on is Fairbanks Alaska.
Does it matter? The effects are regional.
Trying to do a FSBO is always a crapshoot, but there are possibilities for marketing your home on your own these days that were just not possible without the benefit of the Internet.
I'm already tracking properties on the MS Gulf Coast by way of a Real Estate website, so when we get ready to move, we'll have some good ideas about the value of one property compared to others.
About 1500.
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