Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
If you really it to sound impressive, they have lost ZERO games in the last 10 days!
Actually, the've lost ZERO games in the last 26 days.
Their last loss was on September 28th.
Sheesh, did you used to live in Rio Linda?
Yeah, you’re correct for the WS, but over a long season that’s not going to happen. The poster implied that the Roxs’ amazing winning streak made them the ‘team of destiny’, therefore they would win the WS. As you know past results in baseball, gambling, or the stock market are no guarantee of future winnings.
I don’t know what the best major league baseball season ever was or will be, but .995 is probably out of the question, ever. Football, maybe, but they only play 20 games if they sweep the season. The Red Sox think they are more than just good, and maybe so.
Loookat dem cheeks!
Cutie pie!
Hadn’t grown much since then *wink*
That’s Pedroia’s senior year photo.
Very informative post. Thanks.
I think it's 116 games but I can't recall what team did it. Indians?
Sorry. I asked the mods to delete the post. They instead killed the thread and then unkilled it.
It was 111, but the Mariners beat that with 116 in 2001.
Thank you.
It's certainly odd to face a team where the DH bats 9th.
I have to hand it to you, FRiend... You believed in the Red Sox in the ALCS, and I didn't. I was certain the Indians would end up in the WS. You are a true Red Sox fan. :o)
Colorado in 4 !......;o)
Enjoy the series !
Go Sox.
Radio feed
http://espnradio.espn.go.com/espnradio/index
There is a popup,5 tabs. I have been getting it on the Pittsburg feed.
It has been about two pitches behind, so I roll with the TV,then “replay” the audio.
*********************
The difference is very interesting.
The Manny Homerun that wasn’t was stark,the radio fellows Miller and Morgan,really adamant it was a homer,the TV guys blasting Manny for ,well you know. Time to Man up?
I think so.
My take tonight? Calm,which is bizarre,and confident.
Josh is an iron man,would be shocked if any team could hit him right now.
Plus,very unfortuinate and unfair to Rox...
8 days in the cold. Victims of thier own stunning success,perhaps.
Good luck Rock fans.
But,not That much...
;)
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