Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
More importantly, the "Rox", as Colorado attempts to call themselves, is a Can-Am League (Independent) team owned by Bill Veeck, Jr. located in Brockton, MA, a Ramirez Rocket shot from Fenway.
http://www.brocktonrox.com
Better yet, let's count how many times Timmy and Joey have to correct themselves. Yes, it's live TV, but I've never seen so many "pardon me, what I just said was the opposite of what just happened" as those two.
Then again, if I saw one more ad for "Frank TV" while watching the games on TBS, I was gonna go postal on my set!!!
From the Red Sox site:
Fenway Park is actually the second home for the Sox.
In 1901, the Boston Americans became one of the charter members of the fledgling American League.
The Americans played ball at the Huntington Avenue Grounds, now a part of Northeastern University's campus.
Boston Globe owner General Charles Henry Taylor, a Civil War veteran, bought the team for his son John I. Taylor in 1904.
At various times were called the Puritans, Pilgrims and Plymouth Rocks. In 1907, owner Taylor changed the club's name from the Pilgrims to the Red Sox.
In 1910, tired of the leasing arrangement for the Huntington Avenue Grounds, Taylor announced that he would build a ballpark for his Red Sox.
Taylor dubbed the new ballpark Fenway Park because of its location in the Fenway section of Boston.
Thought it was interesting..Now, to the Morse Code on the Fenway Park scoreboard..
Drew and Ellsbury move up, with a RHP on the mound for the Rox.
The Colorado Rockies and Boston Red Sox both entered the World Series riding impressive winning streaks. Only Boston's remains intact.Seeking their sixth consecutive win in a World Series game and fifth straight victory overall, the Red Sox send Curt Schilling to the hill Thursday night for Game 2 at Fenway Park.
Since falling behind 3-1 to the Cleveland Indians in the AL championship series, Boston has appeared unstoppable. The Red Sox have outscored the opposition 43-6 while winning their last four contests, including a 13-1 rout of the Rockies in Game 1 on Wednesday night.
Starting with Dustin Pedroia's leadoff home run in the first inning, the Red Sox never looked back. They pounded out 17 hits and set records for both runs scored and margin of victory in a World Series opener.
"It's great for us to come out here and win a game that big, get our psyche up and get our confidence going," said Boston first baseman Kevin Youkilis, who doubled twice. "The biggest thing for us was to score runs early and often."
Meanwhile, a Colorado club which swept through the first two rounds of the postseason and had won 21 of its last 22 games overall saw its winning streak and momentum evaporate. The Rockies appeared to have cooled after an eight-day layoff, although manager Clint Hurdle refused to cite the extra time before the World Series as a factor.
"You can ask me all series long, I'm not going to be able to give you an answer on that," Hurdle said. "We're a no-excuse ballclub, always have been, we're going to be. We got outplayed tonight."
The Red Sox, who lost four World Series -- all in the maximum seven games -- between their championship seasons of 1918 and 2004, are now making the Fall Classic look easy. Wednesday's victory was their fifth straight in the World Series including their four-game sweep of St. Louis three years ago. They have allowed a total of just four runs in the last four of those contests.
Schilling (2-0, 3.38 ERA) won both Game 6 of the ALCS and Game 2 of the World Series in 2004, and he'll try to repeat the pattern Thursday. The right-hander pitched effectively in Game 6 against the Indians on Saturday, giving up two runs and six hits over seven innings while striking out five and not walking a batter in a 12-2 victory. He improved to 10-2 with a 2.25 ERA in 18 career postseason starts.
Schilling, 41, no longer possesses the blazing fastball he had for most of his career, but has remade himself this year into a pitcher who keeps hitters off-balance with his changeups and pinpoint control.
"With the miles that have been put on his shoulder and the games he's pitched, he's not the guy that can pitch 96, 97 anymore," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "But he can still pitch very effectively and still navigate his way through some lineups."
However, Schilling wasn't very effective against the Colorado lineup on June 13 at Fenway, as he allowed six runs -- five earned -- and nine hits, including a three-run homer to Brad Hawpe in Boston's 12-2 defeat.
He has still fared well against the Rockies over his career, going 11-6 with a 4.44 ERA in 26 outings - 25 starts. Colorado first baseman Todd Helton, though, has usually found a way to hit Schilling, as he is 18-for-54 (.333) with five homers and six doubles in their matchups.
Rockies starter Ubaldo Jimenez (0-0, 1.59) may not possess Schilling's postseason pedigree yet, but he's working on it -- and he can light up the radar gun the way Schilling used to with a fastball approaching 100 mph.
After going 4-4 with a 4.28 ERA in 15 regular-season starts, the 23-year-old rookie right-hander has been dominant in the playoffs, giving up only two runs and eight hits over 11 1-3 innings in two outings. Jimenez has not earned a postseason decision, but kept the Rockies close enough to win both games.
"That stuff will be electric," Hurdle said of Jimenez, who has never faced the Red Sox. "That's the kind of stuff that every once in a while, you step back and you go, 'Wow! That's special.' He's shown some special poise for a young pitcher. And he's got good stuff. Anytime you get a swing-and-a-miss pitch against a good offensive club and you're playing in a small park, that's important."
For his part, Jimenez claims not to be intimidated by the task of pitching in the World Series in front of Fenway's frenzied fans.
"I don't feel any pressure," he said. "I'm just really excited about it."
After this contest the teams will travel to Colorado, where the series resumes Saturday night.
I think I can safely say that the 2007 Rockies are the 2004 Cardinals without the talent.
but will have to rely on WRKO AM’s iffy nighttime signal which battles static and a French-speaking station from Canada after sunset.
Hmmm... we get a French-speaking radio station only at night here, about 20 miles north of Hartford, CT. Wonder if it's the same one...
Oh BS....
This is a very young but exciting team that is going to be a contender in the NL for years to come if they take care of business and don’t wind up with injuries. Their SS is a stud and the LF is a legit ROY candidate. Their RF was tops in RBI in the NL, their 3B guy is very good defensively and Helton is a step above JD Drew when he’s having a good year.
Let’s hope the rookie gets butterflies tonight because the Sox have had their share of problems against young pitchers who they have not seen before. It this kid is throwing strikes with his fastball and breaking stuff I don’t think we do well tonight.
OMG... ROTFL! ;-D
I expect, as usual, the Red Sox make Jimenez pitch a lot with a little more emphasis.
Jimenez 2007 AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox stats:
Yr Age W L W/L% G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA WHIP 2007 23 8 5 .615 19 19 1 0 0 0 103 110 74 67 9 62 89 3 11 467 0 0 5.85 1.67
High WHIP and ERA.
I expect, as usual, the Red Sox make Jimenez pitch a lot with a little more emphasis.
Jimenez 2007 AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox stats:
Yr Age W L W/L% G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA WHIP
2007 23 8 5 .615 19 19 1 0 0 0 103 110 74 67 9 62 89 3 11 467 0 0 5.85 1.67
High WHIP and ERA.
Greetings from Vermont
Man of the Bloody Red Sock vs
a rookie
I like our chances.
Good luck Rock fans,
byt not Too much...
:)
They need to get good ABs against him by taking balls and fouling off strikes until they can get a pitch to hit. If he’s nervous then he can be beaten. Pedroia’s lead off HR really set the tone againt the starter last night.
I don’t know; I know WEEI’s signal is on same freq
as a French-speaking station from Montreal (AM 850 in
“Verdun” IIRC) plus stations in NY and Ohio. (btw
Rockies flagship station is KOA AM 850 in Denver. One
night WEEI was off air for maintenance around 3 am
and I picked up KOA—unusual to get a station from that
far away
I guess the Sox network stations do get to carry the
pre-game and post-game from Red Sox radio but for the
game itself, it’s ESPN. That includes WBOQ 104.9 in
Gloucester nr me, but I can get WRKO of course.
Jess Cain singing the Yaz song (as heard briefly in
Fever Pitch)
http://staffannouncer.com/blog/audio/yazsong.mp3
Hi
I have been listening to the TV,then the “audio replay”
on the ESPN feed
http://espnradio.espn.go.com/espnradio/index
I too miss the guys,but have found the radio much more satisfying.
Mine is through a stereo,the crowd noise is mixed higher.
Morgan the other night when the Rox mgr, moved his men up onto the grass against Manny said
“he is trying to get somebody killed”.
They were also all over the Manny homerun that wasn’t vs. Indians, tv guys spent the time digging into Manny.
I have to admit I darn near died of laughter when she called me to chew me out! she had a good sense of humor so she took it in stride.
LOL... good thing she had a sense of humor! :o)
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