Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Was Snyder any better?
After reading about the Rockies and all I find that I don’t completely despise them like most other Sox opponents.
Still, I’m hoping for the sweep!!!
Go Sox!!
The remarkable McCarver needs to remarkably put a remarkable Sox in the remarkable it.
Let's count how many times Tim says "remarkable".
BWAAAHAAAHAAAA! That’s classic!
Great Post! Made me relive last night. I think Clayton and Crisp should take their comedy act on the road. This is just like Abbott and Costello - their timing was superb. (I did briefly wonder if the whole thing was set up by TB as stealth marketing but probably not LOL).
Last 10 regular season appearances, Kyle Snyder:
11 IP
10 H
6 BB
4 HR
10 K
7.36 ERA
They both suck, so it’s really hard to choose one over the other. Either is defensible, though. At least Snyder can strike people out.
I like Taverez for the ground ball although Snyder has shown in the past that he can eat some innings. Last year he had games where he would start, get through 4 innings then crap out. Middle relief is supposed to either keep you in the game or clean up the mess so the rest of the pen doesn’t wind up pitching in games like last night. Frankly I think Corey deserved the nod based solely on performance but Tito is always loyal to his guys first.
Snyder pitched two innings of scoreless ball against the Devil Rays this year after Papelbon’s blown save, which allowed the Red Sox to annihilate the back end of the Devil Rays pen and win the game ultimately. Maybe Theo/Tito liked that.
We needed a guy who can go more than one inning. Tavarez and Snyder are both former starters so they can be stretched out for 2 or more innings. Corey can’t go for more than 1. We already have Gagne and Lopez to pitch single innings in low leverage moments of the game. It’s also possible that Theo/Tito weren’t sure that the Corey “small sample size” was legit— that they just caught lightning in a bottle for that period.
For those folks who have XM Radio...they have the option of listening to the Boston feed, the Colorado feed, ESPN feed and Spanish feed. Needless to say I choose the Boston feed. Brings back great memories of Fenway Park.
He also gave up a HR to Kevin Millar in extra innings in Baltimore after Gagne blew a game in August. There has to be something to this story that we don’t see in terms of their choices. Corey’s sample was small but much better than the other two and is a bit distorted by one bad outing. He gets some GBs and Ks.
I would have preferred Corey and Snyder/Taverez over Gagne.
I take part in the MLB On-Deck online survey. They email me a survey every once in awhile to get my opinion on various baseball related things. Lo and behold I got one the day before yesterday that asked various questions about TBS and Fox coverage of the division and league championship series. Two of the questions covered the broadcasters. I slammed McCarver bigtime, giving him the lowest rating possible.
Theo still loves Gagne's stuff. He thinks he can be as good for us this series as Foulke. They think it's just a matter of tweaking things-- like how fast he throws his next pitch, his confidence, etc.
From TVWeek.com:
The first game of the World Series on Fox posted its best rating in three years.
With the popular Boston Red Sox playing the Colorado Rockies, the game hit a 5.8 rating among adults 18 to 49 in the national Nielsens, up 61 percent from last year’s Cardinals-Tigers match.
Among total viewers, the game was seen by 16.9 million, up 31 percent.
The figures reverse a World Series Game 1 downward trend in recent years, despite the match being a blowout, with the Sox winning 13 to 1.
Like any major sporting event, the game throws its competitors numbers off balance, making week-to-week comparisons suspect.
That said, ABC came in second place with “Pushing Daisies,” down 19 percent from last week to a 3.0, which is a rather steep drop even with the game, particularly since “Private Practice” was up a couple notches to a 4.5. At 10 p.m., “Dirty Sexy Money” also was up slightly to a 3.2.
CBS is up a peg for the second consecutive week, with “Kid Nation” earning a 2.5. “Criminal Minds” was down a tick to a 3.9 and “CSI: NY” was down 7 percent to a 3.8.
Coming in fourth, NBC premiered “Phenomenon” at 8 p.m. to a 2.9, besting the time-period debut of “Deal or No Deal” in the slot in September.
The live show featured “mentalists” performing their acts for judges Uri Geller and Criss Angel with the help of celebrities. The acts included one performer playing Russian roulette with a series of nailguns and another making Carmen Electra claim she felt his touch from several feet away.
Following “Phenomenon,” NBC had “Bionic Woman,” which was down a notch to a 3.3, and then “Life,” dropping 11 percent to a 2.5.
On The CW, “America’s Next Top Model” was down slightly to a 2.3, while “Gossip Girl” was steady with a 1.2. The story is the same in The CW’s target 18 to 34 demo.
Rockies
Scouting Report:
Rockies: One of the unknowns about the playoffs was whether Jimenez, 23, who wasn't called up from the Minors until August, would be able to handle playoff pressure. However, he pitched well in late regular-season games during the Rockies' run to the playoffs, so that should have been an indication. Jimenez has no decisions in two postseason starts, but both have been outstanding. He is carrying a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 innings. Jimenez's fastball has been clocked at or near 100 mph, depending on the radar gun, and his breaking pitches and changeup have confounded hitters that have been caught looking for the heater. However, there is one issue: walks. He has eight of them against 11 strikeouts.
In the early 1900s, the Red Sox were known as the Plymouth Rocks.
We now return you to your scheduled thread, already in progress.
So - just for her - this Angels fan is cheering for Boston.
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