Bumper sunspot crop forecast for next solar cycle

Bumper sunspot crop forecast for next solar cycle 11:57 07 March 2006 NewScientist.com news service Kimm Groshong Print this pageEmail to a friendRSS Feed

Enlarge image Increasing sunspot activity was clearly visible as our star approached its latest maximum, in 1999 (Image: SOHO/NASA/ESA)Related Articles Solar flare causes widespread radio blackout 09 September 2005 Sunspot cluster ejects huge radiation storm 21 January 2005 Giant sunspots continue to erupt 27 October 2003 Search New Scientist Contact us Web Links High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research Space Environment Center, NOAA Space Weather The next 11-year sunspot cycle will be late but strong according to a new computer prediction. The model used was virtually spot on when applied retrospectively to "forecast" the last eight solar cycles.

"We predict the next cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the last cycle," says the model's creator, Mausumi Dikpati, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's High Altitude Observatory in Boulder, Colorado, US.

The Sun is currently near its minimum activity, at the tail end of a solar cycle, numbered 23. "Onset of the next cycle will be delayed by six to 12 months, to late 2007 or early 2008," Dikpati says. She expects the next peak to hit in 2012.

Sunspots are the dark blotches that temporarily appear on the Sun when magnetic field lines near the star's outer layer push through the surface. View a video of sunspot activity from 1996 to 2005, captured by the SOHO satellite (36MB mpeg file, NASA/ESA). And NASA has more videos, here.

Although each solar cycle – from sunspot minimum to maximum and back again – is roughly 11 years, the periods can vary in length and intensity. The factors governing the cycle have been largely inscrutable.

Dikpati's team tackled the problem by incorporating updated solar dynamical theories along with observations of the Sun dating back to 1880. The result is a model of the Sun with a 20-year "memory" of its magnetic field activity.

Coronal ejections The model can be tested using past data to "predict" the nature of cycles that have in fact already occurred – and it describes cycles 16 to 23 with better than 97% accuracy. If the model proves to make accurate real predictions, it will finally answer the 150-year-old question of what causes the sunspot cycle, said David Hathaway, a solar astronomer at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, US, during a press conference on Monday.

And understanding the solar cycle is not just important for science. If the magnetic field lines that pop up to the Sun's surface as a sunspot are twisted and rotate, the spot can yield solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which spew radiation and charged particles in Earth's direction.

Such storms can disrupt the Earth's upper atmosphere, causing numerous problems. So knowing when a cycle is likely to peak could be particularly important during a strong sunspot cycle, says Richard Behnke, director of the US National Science Foundation's Upper Atmospheric Research Section.

"This prediction suggests we're potentially looking at more communications and navigations disruptions, more satellite failures, possible disruptions of electrical grids, blackouts, and more dangerous conditions for astronauts," he says.

Spot the difference The new results contradict those of a model published in 2005 that found the next cycle could be the weakest in 100 years. Leif Svalgaard, a member of the team behind that model, says the key difference boils down to one simple thing: "How long does the Sun remember its magnetic field?"

Both models are based on the idea that the movement of the Sun's spots is driven by a current of plasma, which pushes the remnants of spots toward the poles, where they sink.

But Svalgaard's model assumes the polar fields left over as one cycle declines then seed the sunspots of the next cycle – i.e. the field strengths from the last cycle directly indicate the strength of the sunspots during the next solar cycle. "We think the Sun forgets its magnetic memory," Svalgaard told New Scientist.

In Dikpati's new model, a sunspot's remnants are carried poleward and down to a depth of about 200,000 kilometres by a plasma "conveyor belt" over a span of about 20 years. They are then carried by a slow flow back toward the equator, and eventually surface as sunspots once again.

This means the strength of the next cycle would depend on the strength of the polar fields from the last three cycles. Cycles 21 and 22 were relatively strong, while cycle 23 was weak, so Dikpati's model predicts the next cycle will be stronger, while Svalgaard's suggests it will be weaker.

Watching and waiting "It's good the models are diverging," Svalgaard says. "If all models predict the same thing, we don't get wiser." Which model is right will become clear in the first few years of the next solar cycle. "We're all waiting," he says.

Dikpati's model looks excellent based on the tests on previous cycles, but while Hathaway's group at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center agrees with the prediction of a strong next cycle, they disagree about a delayed onset.

Based on the last 12 cycles, "large cycles usually start early", she told New Scientist. She expects the cycle to begin in late 2006 or early 2007: "We're anxiously awaiting the appearance of those first spots in the new cycle."

December 2012.... Ever read about what happened the last time a solar flare hit the earth headon? Happened in the late 1800's back when all we had were telegraphs. It caused worldwide fires from the electronics shortcircuiting. Good thing we weren't dependant on electricity back then. Hell, it could've been devestating for our grandparents. Imagine if they had had cars, cellphones, and information gathering devices and didn't farm anymore because it was too much of a hassle. Along comes this invisible force, and - BAMMM!! - damn it's a long walk to work. I hate warm beer. Pony express is always late, argh. What?, Oprah died last year? What do you mean, I can't have a Coke, or ice with it, on the burger you gotta go kill?! I know momma's copy of that 'Farmer's Almanac' thing is around here somewhere(diggin' thru the shed). "I know, but we hafta grow the corn to make the bread for the burgers at the family reunion 6 months from now in August." And don't forget,"Sure was awful the way grandpa's pacemaker blew up like that. Ain't seen nuthin like that since that time Uncle Martin got drunk, bent down over the fire, and lit all them jumpin jacks at one time in his shirt pocket.

Yeah, woulda been hell on 'em back then. Good thing all they had to deal with was WWI.

The Ancient Mayan Prediction regarding year 2012:
When it came to mathematics, time and calendars, the Maya were geniuses. Believing that time repeated itself in cycles, they devised two calendars, one ritualistic, which was used for religious celebrations and astrological predictions, and the other a solar calendar
End of the Mayan Great Cycle: December 21st, 2012 A.D.
Check out the movie trailer that Gibson is doing about the Mayans:
http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1809249345/trailer
Scholars today are recognizing that Mayan mythology is intimately related to the celestial movements of stars, the Milky Way and certain constellations. The sources of Mayan mythology are found in the sky, and the timetable of Creation Day is pinpointed by the end date of the Mayan Great Cycle.

My research into the nature of this date reveals that a rare celestial alignment culminates on it. Generally speaking, what occurs is an alignment between the galactic and solar planes. Specifically, the winter solstice sun will conjunct the Milky Way, which is the edge of our spinning galaxy as viewed from earth. Furthermore, the place where the sun meets the Milky Way is where the "dark-rift" in the Milky Way is - a black ridge along the Milky Way caused by interstellar dust clouds

From Scientist and Climatologist: Patrick Gwinneth

In Conclusion that in 2012 AD, the earth will be subjected to a huge disaster. The cause: the magnetic field of the earth will reverse in one go, resulting in an enormous shift of the earth’s crust. Virtually it will be hard for most people to will survive this, while at the same time all our acquired knowledge will disappear.

These scientific predictions originate from the Maya and the ancient Egyptians. Both civilizations are descendants of the legendary Atlanteans, and they had an very high-evolved astronomical knowledge. At the time, they were able to accurately predict the tidal wave that would herald the end of their civilization.

This put me to my quest for the background of their calculations. After years of intensive research, I finally succeeded in cracking the millennia-old codes of the Maya and ancient Egyptians. All my findings make up an amazing exploratory expedition into the secrets of a very distant past. What I discovered is astonishing and concerns everybody. At the same time this discovery explains why the Egyptians built the pyramids of Gizeh according to the star system of Orion.
Sunspots have Increased 1825%
From a New Scientist article of 02 November 2003: "There have been more sunspots since the 1940s than for the past 1150 years (combined)." That is a 1825% increase. Sunspot numbers were derived from levels of a radioactive isotope found in ice cores taken from Greenland and Antarctica. Sunspots are the precursors of solar flares and coronal mass ejections and reflect the internal state of the sun.

2012.. FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY
2012: Super Sunspot Cycle Peak!
Increasing sunspot activity was clearly visible as our star approached its latest maximum, in 1999.

The next 11-year sunspot cycle will be late but strong according to a new computer prediction. The model used was virtually spot on when applied retrospectively to "forecast" the last eight solar cycles.

"We predict the next cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the last cycle," says the model's creator, Mausumi Dikpati, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's High Altitude Observatory in Boulder, Colorado, US.
The Sun is currently near its minimum activity, at the tail end of a solar cycle, numbered 23. "Onset of the next cycle will be delayed by six to 12 months, to late 2007 or early 2008," Dikpati says. She expects the next peak to hit in 2012.

Although each solar cycle – from sunspot minimum to maximum and back again – is roughly 11 years, the periods can vary in length and intensity. The factors governing the cycle have been largely inscrutable.
Dikpati's team tackled the problem by incorporating updated solar dynamical theories along with observations of the Sun dating back to 1880. The result is a model of the Sun with a 20-year "memory" of its magnetic field activity.

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