[David] Wells Doesn't Want Bonds to Pass Ruth

MSNBC ^ | 03/08/2006 | AP

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

FORT MYERS, Fla. - David Wells gave up Barry Bonds’ 701st home run. He doesn’t want the Giants slugger to pass Babe Ruth’s total of 714.

“No. Not really,” the Boston Red Sox left-hander said Wednesday, one day after excerpts of a book were released alleging that Bonds used steroids and other performance-enhancing drugs.

Bonds needs seven homers to pass Ruth for second place and 48 to overtake Hank Aaron for the top spot.

Wells praised Bonds’ baseball skills but said he should “be a man and come out and say that he did it” if he used steroids.

[Alberta's Child]

Figure 5 more years at 42 home runs, a falloff with the next 5 years at 32 home runs, and 2 "hangin' on" seasons at 20 home runs, and he totals 702 homers. With the numbers he was putting up at the end of his first 10 years, it was possible for him to reach 700 without any steroid help.

This is where I think your estimate is way off. I'm not sure I would figure "five more years at 42 home runs" for a guy who averaged 30-35 for the first ten years of his career and had only reached the 40-HR threshold once in that period.

I would look at it a different way. Take his career up to 1999, which is the last year his home run totals bear any resemlance to a "normal" career trend. At that point he was 34 years old, had played 14 seasons, and had 445 home runs. If over the next five years he had seasons that were consistent with his average for the first 14 years, he would have barely reached the 600-HR threshold by the age of 39. Without steroids, I would question whether he would even be able to play much beyond that, and if he could even reach the 25-HR level even once more, let along four times.

[Hegewisch Dupa]

Plus, the big pudgy girlie man continues to wear an elbow protector large enough to do Tony Esposito proud. It's technically illegal, but the Commish allowed him to grandfather it in. If you ever do get to pitch to him- do me this favor. Start like you are intentionally walking him, then label the pig on the fourth. Just to waste his time.

[RabidBartender]

LOL! Now THAT's funny!

[Alberta's Child]

My analysis was hardly a "fantasy" analysis. It was based on his performance at the time, and looking at several "home run hitters" from the 70's (Hank Aaron, Reggie Jackson, Mike Schmidt, Willie Stargell, etc.). If you do that, you'll see that most maintain a level performance through their 30's, with no diminishing HR counts until they get in their 40's.

I don't think any of these players reached their career average home run total after the age of 39. It's also worth noting that the "diminishing" in all of these cases was quite severe. Of the four players you listed, Aaron is the only one to hit 20 or more home runs after turning 40 (he did it once -- when he hit exactly 20). Jackson hit 18 at the age of 40 and 15 at the age of 41. Stargell hit a total of 14 home runs over three years after he turned 40. And Schmidt retired at the age of 39.

[Wombat101]

Hey, I played minor league hockey as a younger man and anyone who hit the ice with that sort of contraption strapped to his arm would have gotten his a*s kicked on the first shift just for being a pansy. Call it an a*s whippin' on general principles.

The only record I want to see Barry Bonds break is "hit in the a*s with most pitches in a season". Let's hope that after the first 20 or so, the message finally gets through to his tiny brain (conveniently located in the place I've indicated) and he gives up on his own.

I'd rather see Bonds hounded out of baseball, with the predeictable shouts of racism, etc., then to see him dishonor the likes of Hank Aaron.

[kx9088]

Has he ever been tested for use?

[ssaftler]

I think that all the records from 1990 (arbitrary choice) to 2010 or so should be printed in a different color ink in the record books with a notation "heavy use of medical supplements." There is no future in pointing fingers at individual players; how does one prove anything?

Not to pick nits, but maybe records prior to 1948 should also be in a different color ink with the notation "no black or dark skinned Latino players allowed"? Or a notation around 1960, when teams set up on the West Coast, and travel fatigue became a bigger issue than the old days when Boston and St. Louis were the furthest geographical points on the MLB map? Then you have the increase from 154 games to 162 games in that same time frame.

And we can't forget the advent of the specialty pitcher in the past 20-30 years. Let's face it, when Ruth hit against a "relief" pitcher, that guy was usually the 9th or 10th best pitcher on the team.

Let's face it, baseball, like all other sports, has had its "golden age", it's "tarnished age" and everything in between. Drug-enhanced muscles aside, Bonds has shown good eyesight and reflexes throughout his career, something I don't believe can improve a lot based on the crap he's been ingesting for the last 10 years.

One need only look at other 'roid boys like McGwire or Canseco to see that WHEN their bat met the ball, it flew like mad, but more often than not, their bat went one way, the ball the other. Bonds, on the other hand, hits for high average and low strikeouts, and has for a long time. A throwback to the mid 20th-century, and a certain Red Sox slugger from the 1940s and 1950s in that respect. I won't put his name in the same comment as Bonds, but you all know who I mean.

[Alberta's Child]

Drug-enhanced muscles aside, Bonds has shown good eyesight and reflexes throughout his career, something I don't believe can improve a lot based on the crap he's been ingesting for the last 10 years.

I used to agree with you, but not anymore. One of the New York City newspapers had an in-depth series of articles on steroids in baseball last year after the whole Jason Giambi story hit the airwaves right around this time of year. One of the things they pointed out is that some anabolic steroids actually improve (and preserve, as the body ages) a person's visual acuity. This probably explains why Giambi didn't just lose his home run power at the beginning of last year . . . he was also hitting about .170 after the first month of the season.

[ssaftler]

Point taken. However, it helps to look at Bonds pre-1997. He was ALWAYS a discriminating hitter, unlike Giambi and other 'roid boys.

Looking at his record on baseball-reference.com, he's struck out more than 100 times once (102), as a 21-year-old rookie with the Pirates. Further, he has had more walks than strikeouts EVERY YEAR since 1990, well before the drugs. Giambi, on the other hand, has had only two years (2000 and 2001) when he had more walks than strikeouts. And McGwire's stats on the BB/K ratio isn't a lot better.

And that Red Sox slugger I noted earlier STILL had his great eyesight well into his 50s, when he was managing the Senators/Rangers. Some people just have good eyes, and Bonds just seems to be in that category.

That's not to say what he's done to himself with whatever he's been ingesting didn't help in other places...

[NYC Republican]

He should have said, in this (unfortunate) PC environment, that he didn't want Bonds to surpass Ruth's OR Aaron's records... Just to pull out the obvious charges that are sure to fly.

[N. Theknow]

Time for collusion. Everytime Bonds puts his juiced butt in the box, walk him.

He should hear more "chin music" than the Beijing Symphony.

[Alberta's Child]

Good points.

One potential issue with a player's BB/K ratio is that it is only an accurate indicator of a player's batting eye and selectivity if you eliminate intentional walks from the mix. I suspect that Bonds has had an enormous number of intentional walks -- particularly in more recent years.

Giambi strikes out alot, but he's one of those guys whose statistics look bizarre in some ways. He only hit .271 last year, but actually led the AL with a .440 on-base percentage. I know he doesn't get walked intentionally very much -- especially in a lineup like that in New York.

[cincinnati65]

Check the number of game appearances and you'll have your answer. Bonds is still capable of appearing in 140+ games a season.

[Alberta's Child]

Bonds is still capable of appearing in 140+ games a season.

Maybe if he pinch-hits in 100 of them.

Don't make me laugh. The guy who played all of 14 games last season?

[Fruitbat]

Time for collusion. Everytime Bonds puts his juiced butt in the box, walk him.

Do you know how the players fall on this?

[cincinnati65]

Rehabbing after three knee operations.....Do you have any idea what you're talking about?

[Alberta's Child]

Let me get this straight. We've got a 41 year-old guy in the National League (where there is no DH) who missed almost all of last season rehabbing after three knee operations . . . and you really think he's going to play 140+ games this year?!?!

[cincinnati65]

No, we've got a 41 year old guy, who with the exception of last year has averaged 143 games over the past five years, who is the dominant power hitter on a team with no readily available substitute, who hit 45+ home runs in each of the last three full seasons that he played, who is coming off of three arthroscopic surgeries (not major reconstructions), who has consistently been a Gold Glover in left field, and won the NL MVP in 2004.

Translation: Hell yeah, I think he'll play 140 games this year.

If you're going to speak up, at least do a little research. You really sound uninformed.

[Alberta's Child]

Three arthroscopic knee surgeries in one year ain't a sign of a healthy athlete -- especially in a sport like baseball where serious knee injuries aren't very common.

Bonds is either going to fade quickly, or he's going to play 140+ games for the next ten years under the influence of increasingly toxic performance-enhancing drugs. He's not going to play 140+ games without that kind of assistance.

And speaking of doing a little research and sounding uninformed . . . Bonds hasn't won a Gold Glove in eight years -- since 1998. And what a coincidence -- that's right around the time he started looking like the Michelin Man, isn't it?

Let me guess . . . you think he's going to steal 40 bases this year, too? He used to do that, you know.

[Mr. Mulliner]

Cincy, I'm on the edge of my seat waiting to find out how Bonds is going to play 140 games this year - without a barrel of 'roids sloshing around inside his aging body. Do you really think his performance over the past few years wasn't drastically improved due to abusing steroids probably more than any other baseball player?

I wouldn't be so quick to tell other freepers that they are uninformed. You're freakin' nuts if you think you've got facts on your side in this argument. Bonds was once a very talented player, but I'll be shocked if he comes out steroid-free and plays anywhere close to what he has played like over the past few years.