Posted on 09/21/2004 4:35:59 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nations' miltary who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT I HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY #31
DISCUSSION
...JEANNE--A THREAT, NOT A THREAT, A THREAT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS ON THIS SYSTEM...NOW A HURRICANE...ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE INTEREST WATCH AREA...
JEANNE has undergone explosive deepening of its central pressure, but the eye is still cloud covered and open to the south, indicating the presence of significant shear.
Yesterday, models came into good agreement. Today, models came into good disagreement.
The consensus--if it can really be called that--is what is being shown in the graphic. JEANNE will make a slow anticyclonic loop and then proceed westward. This is a very low confidence forecast, in the words of the NHC. But there's nothing better.
As stated earlier, JEANNE is in a relatively high shear environment. Several things could happen over the next several days. JEANNE could upwell significant amounts of cold water from staying in roughly the same spot for awhile, cutting off its "fuel," it could get sheared off by the SW flow over top of the cyclone, it could ingest the cold air from the shortwave to its north. Again, models are all over the place. NHC has prepared a forecast on the premise that none of these events will come to pass--the "safe" solution. It, like the path forecast, is of very low confidence.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[There are no watches or warnings associated with JEANNE at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 AM ET (0900Z)
Location: 27.6N by 70.0W, or 445 miles E of Great Abaco Island.
Vector: ENE at 6 MPH. Steering currents are falling apart, and JEANNE is expected to slowly turn to the E or SE later today.
Winds: 90 MPH 1-minute sustained. Some strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 972 MB or 28.70"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 100 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 240 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD site.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Atlantic littoral from Florida to Virginia should monitor the progress of JEANNE.
Top Bush advisors are said to be pushing for the removal of the moderator from the debate to be held at Arizona State University. The moderator is from CBS. The President has not made any indication he supports this notion.
USA Today is running a story that CBS arranged for a confidential source to talk to Joe Lockhart, an aide to John Kerry, after the network received the "unauthenticated" (forged, actually) documents.
The Criminal Party admits the documents are false, but Terry McAwful is pressing on: "Now that we know what's not true, let's focus on the facts..." [Yeah, right.]
Meanwhile, the GOP issued the following statement:
We accept CBS's apology for a breach of the journalistic standards that provide the American people confidence in news organizations, but some disturbing questions remain unanswered.
CBS has now answered questions about the authenticity of the documents but questions remain surrounding who created the documents, who provided them to CBS and if Senator Kerry's supporters, Party committee, or campaign played any role.
Did Bill Burkett, Democrat activist and Kerry campaign supporter, who passed information to the DNC, work with Kerry campaign surrogate Max Cleland? Did Bill Burkett's talks with ‘senior’ Kerry campaign officials include discussions of the now discredited documents? Was the launch of the Democrat National Committee's Operation Fortunate Son designed with knowledge of the faked forged memos? Terry McAuliffe said yesterday that no one at the DNC or Kerry campaign, ‘had anything to do with the preparations of the documents,’ but what about the distribution or dissemination?
In an effort to regain the trust of the American people CBS should not only investigate the process that led to the use of these documents but they should identify immediately those engaged in possible criminal activity who attempted to use a news organization to affect the outcome of a Presidential election in its closing days.
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
Actually, less nibbling. Practically only meat.
I'm having 2 sausages tonight with one 2" flowerette of cauliflower. I've had one hamburger patty and one can of consume (bought about 5 years ago). That is all today.
Salt, very, very little. Really. Except for the sausage. No added salt. I don't normally eat processed food.
Oh yes, yesterday and today it appears that my cystitis is trying to flare up. Yesterday I switched from diet coke to water, and today I'm on cranberry juice. I hate cranberry juice.
Don't be frustrated. I hate excercise. I know I need to start walking again, especially since I have now gone from waitressing to a desk job again. I need to start eating better, etc.
Just as long as I'm healthy, I guess I'm ok with myself. I'll never be thin enough, or pretty enough..in my own mind. But I can just strive to be happy with myself. I'm not sure if I'll ever get there, buy I'm still trying.......
I'm 49, but look 22. JT swears it is so.
Oh, Neets, I thought of you today. I spent some time chatting with a great friend from away back in 7th grade. she & I danced together in dance company in cleveland /... she was in my wedding party.
similarities to you? she is very Italian, Catholic, a great cook, loves animals & is very tiny.
Patty never married & has been caregiving her parents for many years. Her mom died this past year & her mom is in nursing home. He is in 90s.
I have fixed her up a few times over the years & have someone in mind again. Like you , she is also attractive & caring.
I would strongly suggest you eliminate the diet drinks for a month or so .. water is great. Green or Black tea is better than coffee & NO artificia; sweetemers/
49... menopausal weight gain a good possibility. those changing hormones do "interesting" things to our bodies.
Okay, I am pushy. One degree is in Personal training & holistic nuitrition. and in addition I am bossy
:)
If we can keep Kerry talking, we can take all 50 :-)
Jem.. i take a daily cranberry capsule. I like cranberry juice but there is SO LITTLE of it in the stuff you buy.
People laugh when they see how many vitamins & daily supplements I take.,
This all does not guarantee you will live longer. so the question is, why bother?
I attended a funeral today of HS classmate. EPITOME of fitness/health. He died at 59 anyway.
RIP Bob..
Lately I've been delivering mail on a different route almost every day. Yesterday I spent a lot of time in Kerry territory, mostly due to the proximity to Middle Tennessee State University. Today I was much more in Bush territory. I came home in a better mood.
For about two weeks now I've been on a regimen of countless vitamins and nutritional supplements. Mrs. Mulliner lays them all out for me and I carry around a 7-day pill counter -- each day. Seven times a day I take 2-5 capsules.
So far the main effect I notice is that my pee looks like Mountain Dew.
Those are good points, Dolly.
I've been listening to more and more talk radio and then, of course, getting my news from articles on FR. It can be too much of a bubble. Just like the elitists who didn't know anyone who voted for Nixon :-)
Last time I checked, Bush yard signs wouldn't be available for 9 days. Time is almost up so hopefully by Thursday I can get one.
Our county will almost certainly go strongly for Bush, but where I work is a different story. It's a university town and may slip over to Kerry. But I have no doubts now that Tennessee will go for Bush. And in the last 100 years, Tennessee failed to back the winner in only 2 presidential elections. That's a good omen, eh?
Nah, you are a sweetheart.
You will make no doubt make some man very happy someday soon....
You are an inspiration to me. I wish I had your resolve when it comes to fitness. I'm just an out of shape 48 year old woman....:)
DISCUSSION
...JEANNE MAY THREATEN NORTH CAROLINA...INTEREST AREA UPDATED...
JEANNE still appears ragged in IR sat pics. That said, the storm is moving along its forecast track, more or less--finally. Toward the end of the forecast period (VT forecast plus five days, JEANNE will be approaching the CONUS coast. While it is too soon to tell whether there will be a strike--it will be very close to C. Hatteras--it is worth watching.
The hurricane will lose strength the further west it goes, as it will come under increasing shear. If the storm moves westward rapidly, it will come under intense shear and weaken considerably.
Regardless, JEANNE will approach CONUS as a tropical storm, not a hurricane, according to any model guidance.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[There are no watches or warnings posted at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 PM ET/AT (2100Z)
Location: 27.3N by 68.8W, 515 miles E of Great Abaco Island.
Vector: SE at 6 MPH. A turn toward the S or SW is expected later tonight or Wednesday.
Winds: 90 MPH 1-minute sustained. Some strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 972 MB or 28.70"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 90 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 240 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD location.]
SLOSH DATA
[JEANNE is not a threat to land during the next five days.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Atlantic littoral from New Jersey to South Carolina should monitor the progress of JEANNE.
We're the exact same age, Jemian.
I went from being underweight and drinking weight gain milkshakes to taking synthroid and being normal weight for about 5 minutes to always being 10 lbs overweight! LOL
A few months ago I did the South Beach diet, modified, and lost those 10 lbs. So far, so good.
For two weeks - no fruit, no bread, no cereal, no sweets. Then slowly add those things back in.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.