DISCUSSION
...JEANNE MAY THREATEN NORTH CAROLINA...INTEREST AREA UPDATED...
JEANNE still appears ragged in IR sat pics. That said, the storm is moving along its forecast track, more or less--finally. Toward the end of the forecast period (VT forecast plus five days, JEANNE will be approaching the CONUS coast. While it is too soon to tell whether there will be a strike--it will be very close to C. Hatteras--it is worth watching.
The hurricane will lose strength the further west it goes, as it will come under increasing shear. If the storm moves westward rapidly, it will come under intense shear and weaken considerably.
Regardless, JEANNE will approach CONUS as a tropical storm, not a hurricane, according to any model guidance.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[There are no watches or warnings posted at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 PM ET/AT (2100Z)
Location: 27.3N by 68.8W, 515 miles E of Great Abaco Island.
Vector: SE at 6 MPH. A turn toward the S or SW is expected later tonight or Wednesday.
Winds: 90 MPH 1-minute sustained. Some strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 972 MB or 28.70"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 90 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 240 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD location.]
SLOSH DATA
[JEANNE is not a threat to land during the next five days.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Atlantic littoral from New Jersey to South Carolina should monitor the progress of JEANNE.