Source:
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06L.html
Posted on 08/31/2004 12:50:42 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Edited on 08/31/2004 4:05:13 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Hurricane Frances Now A Severe Category 4 Hurricane VORTEX Bulletin:
--Previous Message-- : 000 : URNT12 KNHC 311907 : VORTEX DATA MESSAGE : A. 31/1907Z : B. 20 DEG 22 MIN N : 65 DEG 20 MIN W : C. 700 MB 2579 M : D. 50 KT : E. 226 DEG 084 NM : F. 323 DEG 123 KT : G. 238 DEG 011 NM : H. 940 MB : I. 13 C/ 3074 M : J. 24 C/ 3057 M : K. 10 C/ NA : L. CLOSED WALL : M. C28 : N. 12345/07 : O. .1 /2 NM : P. AF985 1006A FRANCES OB 11 : MAX FL WIND 139 KT NW QUAD 1735Z. : SMALL HAIL IN SW EYEWALL.
I don't blame you in the least, you're location and situation, I would do the same.
We most likely wouldn't even think of bothering evac'ing, never gave it a thought during Isabel last year. We're not that close to the water, and only 4 miles from the HS, which is the evac center in these parts --- and our house is on higher ground. Otherwise we would have to go back to Delaware....I'm not going to bother.
There is only one way off this peninsula - Rte 13 and we would be required to head north - no thanks.
I live in Fort Lauderdale, about 4 miles from the ocean. 7 foot above sea level.
55 year old house, sound, CBS, hurricane shutters, but this thing scares me a bit.
This is going to be a dangerous hurricane.
Yes, the prayers for many are definitely still needed.
And hurricane season has some time to go yet.
My prayers are with you..........I would be scared if I were in the same situation.
I thought the eye was calm while the winds around it were destructive.
dig ths ya'll....
(well Im posting this right about 9pm.... so it might have changed by the time you're reading..) but get a load of this. Can someone who knows how post this actual picture?.. It shows just 2 models... WAY divergent.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_model.html
Bones
The GFDL model, showing the Carolina landfall was run at 8 this morning. The BAMM model, with Florida landfall, was run tonight at 8.
The GFDL model has been on the northern track more than BAMM for most of the runs.
Just my .02, but I'm leaning towards Palm Bay-Melbourne area. That would make us down in the South let out a big sigh.
If it gets bad here I'm thinking of heading out towards Beckley. That's about the halfway point between here and my folks house just outside of Louisville KY. I don't wanna go THAT far, and Beckley's about a 4-5hr drive away. And I won't have to worry about the tunnels; it's just a I264 to I64 shot.
November.
Please PRAY PRAY PRAY Frances AWAY ... lost it all in Andrew .. can't take much more of this nailbiting stress. God Bless all in her path.
This thread is the latest one with the most comments. You might want to see if you can convince the admin moderator to move it back to news and put on Extended or Front Page news and bump to keep its position on the list in the top ten or so. Lots of threads keep getting created and deleted, and there has been a plea for one to be made the official one. This one seems like the most likely candidate, IMO.
See my #133
Source:
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06L.html
Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 30
Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 01, 2004
...Dangerous Hurricane Frances continuing west-northwestward...
central pressure falls...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas...
which includes Acklins...crooked...Inaguas...Mayaguana and
Ragged Islands...and for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the central Bahamas which
includes Cat...Exumas...long islands...Rum Cay and San Salvador.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect the north coast of the
Dominican Republic from Punta Gorda westward to Manzanillo Bay.
At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 21.2 north...longitude 68.5 west or about 170
miles... 270 km...east of Grand Turk island.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph
...28 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue with a
gradual decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours. On
this track...the core of the hurricane will be passing near or over
the the Turks and Caicos Islands...and the southeastern Bahamas
during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Frances a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. While fluctuations in intensity
are expected during the next 24 hours...Frances could still
intensify a little more before reaching the Hurricane Warning area.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is is 935 mb...27.61 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...locally higher...are possible
over the Dominican Republic today.
Large and dangerous waves are possible along the north coast of
Hispaniola...and swells generated by Frances will affect portions of
the southeastern coast of the United States today.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...21.2 N... 68.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 935 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am AST.
Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 30
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 01, 2004
reports from the latest Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
monitoring Frances show maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb of 123
kt...down a little from the earlier flight. However...the central
pressure has dropped to 935 mb. Based on this...the initial
intensity will remain 120 kt for this advisory. The WSR-88D at San
Juan shows that Frances has concentric eyewalls...and the aircraft
data shows three concentric wind maxima. Indeed...on the latest
pass through the southeastern quadrant the highest wind was in the
maxima associated with the outer eyewall.
The initial motion is a wobbly 285/15. Frances remains on the south
side of a subtropical ridge which large-scale models forecast to
weaken somewhat over the next 72 hr. This should allow the
hurricane to move west-northwestward in the general direction of
the Florida Peninsula. Dynamical model guidance agrees with this
scenario...except for the GFDL which continues to call for a
unrealistic looking motion toward the northwest. The official
forecast through 72 hr is shifted a little west of the previous
track based mainly on the initial position and motion and is on the
left side of the dynamical guidance. After 72 hr...there is
divergence in the guidance as a shortwave ridge develops north of
Frances over the eastern United States. The official forecast
track for that time is shifted to the southwest of the previous
track...although not as far as the UKMET which marches Frances
westward across central Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
The intensity forecast is modified only slightly from the previous
package. Upper-level winds are favorable through at least 36-48
hr...so Frances should remain strong. A slight weakening is
indicated at 72 hr based on land interaction and some possible
westerly shear. The main controlling factor on intensity will be
the structure of Frances and concentric eyewall cycles...both of
which are difficult at best to time. Given the current structure
of the hurricane...changes in intensity will likely be relatively
slow to occur.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 01/0900z 21.2n 68.5w 120 kt
12hr VT 01/1800z 22.0n 70.6w 125 kt
24hr VT 02/0600z 23.2n 72.9w 125 kt
36hr VT 02/1800z 24.3n 74.8w 130 kt
48hr VT 03/0600z 25.5n 76.6w 130 kt
72hr VT 04/0600z 27.0n 79.5w 125 kt
96hr VT 05/0600z 28.5n 81.5w 85 kt...inland
120hr VT 06/0600z 31.0n 84.0w 35 kt...inland
Incidentally, most of the models now call for a strike anywhere from Miami to Jacksonville, although one outlier calls for a GA/SC strike.
Thanks- we're battening down the hatches here, just in case. My 8kw welder/generator is unfortunately in Jacksonville, being repaired ( blasted electronic controls! Give me the old stuff, any day. ) but otherwise we are getting situated.
Ivan, Howard, Francis...one perfect storm to meet in the middle of the US???
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