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Posted on 10/20/2026 11:00:22 AM PDT by DFG
China’s ambassador suggested his country could easily overpower the Philippines, a key U.S. treaty ally, reflecting an increasingly aggressive Chinese push to flex authority over the hotly disputed waters of the South China Sea.
The Philippines summoned Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan on Monday to protest his remarks, amid mounting military tensions throughout the Indo-Pacific, according to local Filipino news agency TV5 News. The confrontation unfolds as the U.S. military diverts warships to the Middle East and burns through critical missile stockpiles fighting Iran, according to USNI News and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
China “may easily win” a confrontation with the Philippines, Jing told reporters Thursday, although he maintained Beijing would not resort to military force because “we love peace,” according to TV5 News.
“I do not believe China is well positioned to capitalize on our distraction in the short term, but it will take years, perhaps decades, to restore our munitions stockpiles, so it has plenty of time,” Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Security Studies Program and co-director of its Wargaming Lab, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “We must recall that, even if we were to restore our stockpiles to where they are now ten years hence, that would not put us on track to where we planned to be ten years from now. It would put us back to today’s inventories.”
China has spent years constructing military outposts and airstrips on disputed South China Sea islands, including a potential runway on Triton Island, the Associated Press reported. Beijing also expanded its military footprint in Southeast Asia by opening a joint airbase at a former CIA-operated airfield in Laos, The New York Times reported.
“The United States-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty covers armed attacks against Philippine forces anywhere in the Pacific, including in the South China Sea,” a White House official told the DCNF. “The United States will continue to strengthen our alliance with the Philippines and uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
The Chinese Embassy and the Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment.
“The United States stands with our Philippine allies in upholding regional security and reaffirms Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, which extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft in the South China Sea and elsewhere in the Pacific,” a State Department spokesperson told the DCNF.
“We appreciate the statements and support from the United States in condemning bad actors of their illegal occupation and activities in Philippine waters as the Philippines continues to assert its sovereign rights and champion our legitimate rights under UNCLOS,” the Philippine Embassy in Washington told the DCNF. “Both countries continue to engage in regular dialogue and coordination on matters of mutual concern, including regional security and the fulfillment of our respective commitments.”
“China is certainly taking advantage of the situation,” James R. Holmes, the J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College, told the DCNF. “Over the decades, Beijing has perfected the art of acting in its home region when the United States is doing things elsewhere on the globe or visibly has no interest in intervening in the region. One of my go-to examples is 1974, when the United States had pulled out of Vietnam and clearly was not going to return. So China’s military seized some of the Paracel Islands from South Vietnam on the eve of South Vietnam’s downfall.”
Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro condemned the Chinese ambassador’s remarks as “provocative and unacceptable,” warning that they worsened already strained relations between the two countries, according to the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs.
“China’s ambassador to the Philippines, Jing Quan, did what any good ambassador would do,” Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and former senior economist on President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, told the DCNF. “He launched a warning shot across the bow by telling the Philippines that it would get its clock cleaned if it continues to cross China’s red lines.”
“The audience is not Washington alone,” Yao-Yuan Yeh, a political science professor and director of the Taiwan and East Asia Studies Program at the University of St. Thomas, told the DCNF. “Beijing also wants Manila and Taipei to question whether American support will remain dependable in a crisis.”
Beijing defended its ambassador, accusing Philippine politicians of attacking China and damaging bilateral relations. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning urged Manila to restrain the politicians’ behavior during an Oct. 19 press briefing.
“China is happy to see us send attention elsewhere, but they are paying a price with lost oil access due to our taking down Iran and its proxies,” Steven Bucci, a retired Army colonel and visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told the DCNF. “After being embarrassed by the impotence of Chinese tech to aid Iran, they are not likely to decide to push things in the near or midterm.”
China has also increased its naval activity near Taiwan and the Philippines.
The Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning conducted approximately 10 aircraft takeoffs and landings in the Philippine Sea on Oct. 14 before sailing toward the South China Sea the following day, according to Japan’s Joint Staff Office. Beijing maintained the deployment was routine training and not directed against another country.
“China routinely tests the response of U.S. allies like Taiwan and the Philippines, but the rate and intensity of this testing appears to be increasing,” Matthew Wallin, CEO of the American Security Project, told the DCNF. “Recently, Taiwan complained of an ‘unusually large’ flotilla of Chinese ships conducting harassment operations. These included a number of fishing and ‘research’ vessels conducting operations in or around Taiwan’s waters.”
Japanese fighter jets scrambled in response to repeated Chinese military intelligence aircraft flights over the East China Sea between October 13 and 15, according to Japan’s Joint Staff Office.
Dwindling Weapon Stockpiles Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy has committed substantial naval assets to the ongoing conflict with Iran.
The USS George Washington, normally stationed in Yokosuka, Japan, was operating in the Arabian Sea alongside the Japan-based destroyer USS Shoup in support of strikes against Iran. The USS George H.W. Bush and its carrier strike group were also operating in the Arabian Sea, USNI News reported Oct. 13.
Beyond the movement of American warships, the Iran War has severely depleted critical U.S. missile inventories.
American forces had expended approximately half their initial inventories of Patriot air defense missiles, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors and Precision Strike Missiles by July, according to a CSIS assessment. Roughly one-third of initial inventories for Tomahawk cruise missiles, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles and several naval Standard Missiles had also been expended.
“The [Iran] War weakens America’s deterrence against China in very significant ways,” Heginbotham told the DCNF. “The pace of operations has diverted resources to the Middle East and has imposed very significant wear and tear on major assets, especially naval ships but also aircraft. Much more significant, however, is the massive expenditure of munitions that are precisely those that we would depend on in a conflict with China.”
“China is most certainly studying carefully our actions re Iran, including the larger diplomatic/geopolitical actions and most definitely our military operations, the underlying technology of such, and most definitely our industrial base and how it is responding to surge requirements,” Christopher Lay, a former Reagan-era Pentagon policy aide, told the DCNF.
However, not all experts were concerned about the munitions drawdown from the Iran War.
“This is wishful thinking by China and anyone thinking we can only deal with one crisis at a time,” Bucci told the DCNF.
“My assessment is that American deterrence against China remains strong,” Yeh told the DCNF. “The Iran war may make it seem that Washington is distracted, but U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific have continued strengthening deterrence through advanced capabilities, joint exercises, and closer operational coordination with allies.”
A separate July assessment estimated that fewer than 1,000 Patriot interceptors and approximately 250 THAAD interceptors remained available, CSIS reported.
Replenishing Tomahawk, THAAD and Patriot stocks to prewar levels would require three to five years under projected delivery schedules, according to CSIS.
Nevertheless, the United States continues to demonstrate military strength in the Pacific.
Approximately 12,000 American service members joined 45,000 Japanese troops Monday for Keen Sword 27, a major exercise focused on defending Japan’s southwestern islands near Taiwan. The USS Theodore Roosevelt is participating in the exercise, which includes advanced missile systems and amphibious operations, The Associated Press reported.
The United States and the Philippines also conducted joint maritime operations in the South China Sea on October 14, according to the U.S. Navy.
“Any conflict with China is going to expend munitions and possibly lives and equipment at a rate we have not seen in decades, and China is likely counting on that due to its numerical advantages,” Wallin told the DCNF. “We are lucky that China hasn’t taken full advantage of our current distraction [the Iran War], likely because China is not truly ready for an invasion, and it is likely rethinking strategy as the War in Ukraine has illuminated a variety of vulnerabilities challenging the wisdom of a conventional military invasion.”
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President Trump is scheduled to visit Manila Nov 16-18 to attend the 49th ASEAN Summit.
https://nypost.com/2026/10/11/us-news/trump-to-visit-the-philippines-next-month-for-asean-summit/
The Philippines really needs to clean of the corruption in its society so that it has the ability to defend itself.
With the population and natural resources the Philippines have there is no reason for it to be a poor country
I think China is having major internal problems. An aggressive war out in the Pacific may seem like a good idea to them.
China went on its Spratly island grab and base-building spree in 2009 - immediately after Obama entered office
China needs something to stir up the populace.
The stronger China becomes militarily, the smaller our margin of military advantage is, the more beligerant they become.
Very telling of what is ahead.
Scary.
—
We’re not much better though. Post Cold War, and with the decline of the Soviet / Warsaw Pact and before the rise of China and the areas they are involved, we became far more trigger happy. Our operational tempo post Cold War (despite our primary threat falling away), increased.
Nature is lazy, greed rules, and politicians use whatever tools get the job done for them expediently. When you have a big stick, and no one else can strike you back, you tend to use it.
I’m a big believer in having a big stick. But I believe it needs to be used prudent and serving the national interests, not some special interests which is another big problem we have been having.
FTA——
According to USNI News and the Center for Strategic
and International Studies (CSIS), the war with Iran:
<><>is obligating the US military to divert warships to the MidEast
<><>as well as burning through critical US missile stockpiles.
• In late July and early August 2026, Gen. Grynkewich (head of US European Command) notified senior US officials that strained naval assets, maintenance backlogs, and heavy missile-defense demands from the ongoing war with Iran left him with insufficient warships in the Mediterranean.
• The Resource Strain: The U.S. Navy maintains a small rotation of Arleigh Burke-class destroyers out of Rota, Spain, to help shield Israel from ballistic missiles, leaving US commanders forced to weigh commitments to Israel against domestic defense of at-risk American families.
For all it’s hardware and bluster, China has a problem. It’s gear is made in China and it’s personnel are Chinese. Chinese military gear is substandard as the countries who have bought it have discovered. SAM radars don’t see aircraft that are in plain sight and the missiles tend to fly in any direction. Pakistan specifically is moving away from Chinese military hardware after experience with it.
In border skirmishes with India, Chinese troops don’t match up well. Chinese men are now mostly “only childs” and referred to as “little princes.” A week in the field has them needing special counselors and a lot of hand holding.
Numbers make China dangerous but quality is severely lacking. An invasion force would never get within 200 miles of the Philippines. All China could do is launch missiles. And that’s if the missile fuel hasn’t been stolen and replaced with water. (An actual problem.)
China’s ground forces are organized entirely in top down fashion. Field level troops are not allowed the slightest decision making authority. Such armies generally don’t do well. Local commanders and sergeants cannot make local tactical decisions based on circumstances on the ground. No a good model.
In the US army there is a chance that your commanding Generals are competent. In the Chinese Army generalships cost a million bucks and loyalty to the CCP is the only requirement. Chinese generals are regularly deposed over corruption as Xi tries to clean house. He will never succeed. The system is irretrievably corrupt.
China is good at rattling sabers, though.
Divide and conquer will be very hard. China has an extremely effective internal security apparatus, total control over the media, what comes in from the outside, and even religion.
Huh? That statement sounds like gibberish.
Beyond the movement of American warships outlined above,
the Iran War has severely depleted critical US missile inventories.
According to a CSIS assessment, the US military by July
<><>expended about 1/2 of our initial inventories of Patriot air defense missiles,
<><>1/2 of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors
<><> 1/2 of our Precision Strike Missiles,
<><>as well as some 1/3 of initial inventories for Tomahawk cruise missiles,
<><>and 1/3 of Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles expended.
The wisest of them all are the Israelis, who seem to have stepped as far into the
background as possible, seeing how Trump has thoroughly mired himself in Iran.
That statement sounds like gibberish.
It parses perfectly.
Then please explain what at risk American families there are. Israel is an ally. We have forward deployed forces just to surge where needed. The comment is gibberish for mind numbed robots.
Long winded drivel.
...... it’s gibberish for mind numbed robots......
...............................................
You shouldn’t demean yourself so harshly.
I’m sure you have many redeeming qualities.
Cant answer the question? Its not even directed at you, just the source you cited.
A commander doesn’t have to weigh pros and cons of deployment orders, and there is one reason to have deployable forces - to move them to where needed to achieve political or military goals as defined by the CIC.
You didn’t need to get all defensive and you lower yourself by getting snarky.
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