Battleground states: Kamala has no path to 270

All polls, no cherry-picking, from Real Clear Politics | Dangus

[dangus]

In this map, red does NOT mean more Republican than pink, and pink does NOT mean more Republican than gray. Red represents a state that has not been considered a battleground state. Pink represents a state that had been considered a battleground, but polls show Harris uncompetitive, less so than Biden. Gray represents states without Trump vs Harris polling available. The point is that there is no path to 270 without a huge swing towards the Democrats, far larger than Trump's national lead.

There are a dearth of Trump-against-Harris polls in every state, but the key point is that Harris performs worse than Biden, so even if the poll is weighted poorly or by chance is more Democratic or Republican than it should be, we can still see how it just got HARDER, rather than easier for the Dems to get to 270 (actually, probably 269) electoral votes to win the election. That is, selecting Harris is not likely to get a BETTER result, but rather a desperate shake-up, like playing poker and giving back that king in the hopes of getting a third deuce.

There is one caveat: it is possible that corrupt pollsters were trying to keep Biden in the race or settle discord within the party by falsely claiming he would outperform Harris. That said, these are the battleground polls that included Trump-Harris matchups:

A Fox News poll of Georgia found Biden losing by three points, a very close race, but Harris losing by ten.

A Fox News 13 poll of Florida on July 18th shows Biden trailing by 6 points, but Harris trailing by 10.

An Insider Advantage poll of Arizona on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 5 points, but Harris trailing by 6.

An Insider Advantage poll of Pennsylvania on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 4 points, but Harris trailing by 7; on the other hand, A Democrat PAC poll by Public Policy Polling (fired by the DEMOCRATS!!! for skwing polls to make the Dems look better) shows Harris only down 2, whereas Biden is down 5.

An Insider Advantage poll of Nevada on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 7 points, but Harris trailing by 10.

A July 18 poll by Public Policy Polling shows Trump up in Michigan by 3 over Biden, and 5 over Harris. This one doesn't tell us much, but so as not to cherry-pick, a July 13 American Greatness poll of Wisconsin shows Biden down 2, but Harris only 1, so we keep Wisconsin gray.

[dangus]

>> Replacing Biden was never about the White House… it’s about trying to save the down ballot from massacre. <<

... or shoring up the Blacks-and-unmarried-women base. I think there’s a real and legitimate fear that once preachers and black-niche media see a Republican win a lot of votes, they’re going to start respecting Republican viewpoints more, and that can avalanche out of control.

[dpetty121263]

Still much to play out for sure, the betting markets have Trump ahead but they are saying depends on who she picks as VP and also if the Dems have an Open Convention or brokered.

[dangus]

Yeah, one thing I learned from the Jesse Helms days: 53% Republican to 47% Democrat is a frickin’ landslide in North Carolina. 6% in some states is tiny. 6% in NC is huge.

[dangus]

>> what a messed up map, there is no world where Michigan is further right than North Carolina. <<

Please read the article before you criticize. I explicitly discuss that pink does not necessarily mean more Republican than gray; it’s a matter of lacking any polling data.

[dangus]

Kamala probably loses New Mexico. Joe was trailing Arizona and Nevada badly. But that’s a guess, not based on poll analysis.

[TexasFreeper2009]

gotcha

[Sacajaweau]

The Dems know they have to get this age factor down.

They want a man...Newsome...and Kamala is a dunce....

[zeestephen]

Re: "Kamala has no path to 270."

Delusional.

Thanks to massive legal immigration - which most Republicans quietly support or quietly ignore - Democrats, plus Lean Democrat, have been a numerical majority since 1992.

In the last eight Presidential elections, Republicans have reached 50% just one time - 50.7% in 2004.

Prediction...

Kamala will easily beat Trump in the Popular Vote.

The Electoral College vote will be a toss up - with Trump a slight favorite.

[TexasFreeper2009]

The reason that there hasn’t been much polling in North Carolina is that NC is further right than Georgia.

This is the same reason there hasn’t been much polling in Massachusetts.

The ruff order from most conservative to least conservative is:

North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan

[jmacusa]

We’re NOT all liberals here in NJ!

One of the largest Trump rallies was held here.

For crying out loud do you know where Bedminster happens to be located?.

Dumb Canuck.

[blueunicorn6]

The Democrat Party Crime Families are getting old.

They are going to quietly disengage.

The true Democrats are going to get dropped by the side of the road like a $5 hooker.

[Salman]

Assuming no election stealing like 2020, sure.

But why assume that? I have heard no particular plans to counter it. Or did I miss something?

[Jane Long]

Hey, wait ... she's just getting started ...

Kamala has secured her first delegates, all 77 from Tennessee.

Other state party chairs are expected to make similar commitments. No word on endorsement from ex boyfriend Montel Williams. pic.twitter.com/TXsXeKOdYU— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) July 21, 2024

[maro]

Yep

[Secret Agent Man]

Suck Machine may be good, but she can’t slurp/gag her way to victory in under 4 months.

[OttawaFreeper]

Forgive me, all I was commenting on was that New Jersey was possibly going to be that more winnable this year for Trump, compared to previous times out. I am quite well aware that the southern part of the state in particular is quite very Republican and it gets unfortunately cancelled out by areas like Newark that go almost completely Dem. I don’t think there was the need to call me a “dumb Canuck”.

[stinkerpot65]

They will print the votes they need.

And Republican cowards will say nothing.

[Deaf and Discerning]

I’ve been in NY state for 70 years. The last time New York State voted for a Republican presidential candidate was in 1984, when Ronald Reagan won the state during his re-election campaign.

Since then, as I walk up to every ballot, I say to myself: “This is stupid and waste of my time...”

[GaryCrow]

I'm not convinced Kamala will be the nominee. If they just toss her aside then it'll infuriate the feminist/racist base of the democratic party but a few vacation homes and offshore bank accounts funded by fat cat dem donors would convince her to remove herself from the race for "personal reasons". That opens up the opportunity for them to put someone in like Gavin Newsom who could be formidable.

Anything could happen at this point.

[HamiltonJay]

Kamala can’t win she’ll lose in a landslide to anyone.

No Democrat can win the WH this cycle, period.

Biden was pushed out not because he’ll lose the WH, that’s been known by anyone thinking since the start…Biden remaining on the ticket destroys the down ballot. Replacing him is about trying to give their base something to stay motivated and show up.

Kamala isn’t a great solution to this, but about the best they realistically can manage logistically. She’s a black female so they’ll just play that to try to get their base at least engaged and have a reason to show up.

It also removes the logistical barrier if the fact anyone else won’t have direct access to the money donated to Biden Harris already.