Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Battleground states: Kamala has no path to 270
All polls, no cherry-picking, from Real Clear Politics | Dangus

Posted on 07/21/2024 2:46:08 PM PDT by dangus

In this map, red does NOT mean more Republican than pink, and pink does NOT mean more Republican than gray. Red represents a state that has not been considered a battleground state. Pink represents a state that had been considered a battleground, but polls show Harris uncompetitive, less so than Biden. Gray represents states without Trump vs Harris polling available. The point is that there is no path to 270 without a huge swing towards the Democrats, far larger than Trump's national lead.

There are a dearth of Trump-against-Harris polls in every state, but the key point is that Harris performs worse than Biden, so even if the poll is weighted poorly or by chance is more Democratic or Republican than it should be, we can still see how it just got HARDER, rather than easier for the Dems to get to 270 (actually, probably 269) electoral votes to win the election. That is, selecting Harris is not likely to get a BETTER result, but rather a desperate shake-up, like playing poker and giving back that king in the hopes of getting a third deuce.

There is one caveat: it is possible that corrupt pollsters were trying to keep Biden in the race or settle discord within the party by falsely claiming he would outperform Harris. That said, these are the battleground polls that included Trump-Harris matchups:

A Fox News poll of Georgia found Biden losing by three points, a very close race, but Harris losing by ten.

A Fox News 13 poll of Florida on July 18th shows Biden trailing by 6 points, but Harris trailing by 10.

An Insider Advantage poll of Arizona on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 5 points, but Harris trailing by 6.

An Insider Advantage poll of Pennsylvania on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 4 points, but Harris trailing by 7; on the other hand, A Democrat PAC poll by Public Policy Polling (fired by the DEMOCRATS!!! for skwing polls to make the Dems look better) shows Harris only down 2, whereas Biden is down 5.

An Insider Advantage poll of Nevada on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 7 points, but Harris trailing by 10.

A July 18 poll by Public Policy Polling shows Trump up in Michigan by 3 over Biden, and 5 over Harris. This one doesn't tell us much, but so as not to cherry-pick, a July 13 American Greatness poll of Wisconsin shows Biden down 2, but Harris only 1, so we keep Wisconsin gray.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: 2024election; harris; maga2024; trump; trump2024; vanity
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 101-106 next last

1 posted on 07/21/2024 2:46:08 PM PDT by dangus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: dangus

I wonder if New Hampshire and even New Jersey are winnable now, as well as Minnesota.


2 posted on 07/21/2024 2:48:03 PM PDT by OttawaFreeper ("The Gardens was founded by men-sportsmen-who fought for their country" Conn Smythe, 1966 )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Replacing Biden was never about the White House… it’s about trying to save the down ballot from massacre


3 posted on 07/21/2024 2:50:24 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

What a surprise!

</s>


4 posted on 07/21/2024 2:52:22 PM PDT by bimboeruption (“Less propaganda would be appreciated.” JimRob 12-2-2023)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

It’s not going to be Kammy, Hillary’s got this and then the cheat machine goes to 11.


5 posted on 07/21/2024 2:52:54 PM PDT by VTenigma (Conspiracy theory is the new "spoiler alert")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All
“This was the dire strait Biden was looking at.”

CNN analyst John King points to the map: Trump was already assured of getting the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Trump could even get 330 electorals. There’s 16 weeks to Election Day. In sixteen weeks we count the votes.

”It’s tough to change a map like this in that amount of time.”

6 posted on 07/21/2024 2:54:27 PM PDT by Liz (This then is how we should pray : Our Father who art in heaven, Hallowed be thy name . )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: VTenigma

newsome...


7 posted on 07/21/2024 2:54:32 PM PDT by Sacajaweau
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: dangus

We won’t know until new polls come out, but I’m guess she very much does.


8 posted on 07/21/2024 2:54:48 PM PDT by Husker24 (Pp)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

No reason to go Kobra Kai

This sweep is inevitable


9 posted on 07/21/2024 2:56:19 PM PDT by Vendome (I've Gotta Be Me https://youtu.be/wH-pk2vZG2M)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: HamiltonJay

HamiltonJay wrote: “Replacing Biden was never about the White House… it’s about trying to save the down ballot from massacre”

True and pushing Kamala is about saving the 2028 race. A dismal showing for Kamala in 2024 and she’s dead meat for 2028. Meanwhile all the other democrats can stand back, avoid a debacle while preparing for 2028.


10 posted on 07/21/2024 2:56:35 PM PDT by DugwayDuke (Most pick the expert who says the things they agree with.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: dangus

PA can manufacture 500,000 extra democrat votes overnight.


11 posted on 07/21/2024 2:57:03 PM PDT by UnwashedPeasant (The pandemic we suffer from is not COVID. It is Marxist Democrat Leftism.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Sacajaweau

As the sacrificial lamb maybe. I still think Hillary. She’s sporting a fresh facelift and tummy tuck. Just like Biden in 2020.


12 posted on 07/21/2024 2:59:02 PM PDT by VTenigma (Conspiracy theory is the new "spoiler alert")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: dangus

I hope that’s true, but it’s a bit early to make such a proclamation. A lot of American voters are fickle, so who knows what this new political landscape will look like. Also, there’s no guarantee she will even be the replacement.


13 posted on 07/21/2024 2:59:40 PM PDT by Restless
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

If ya dont vote for KarMarLar then you aint black....


14 posted on 07/21/2024 2:59:41 PM PDT by Tennessee Nana
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Forget North Carolina. That one isn’t happening for the Democrats.


15 posted on 07/21/2024 3:02:15 PM PDT by Luke21
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

No democratic political person can beat Trump, without fraud.


16 posted on 07/21/2024 3:02:25 PM PDT by exnavy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: HamiltonJay

I don’t think any of the “stars” in the Democrat Party are going to take a risk and enter the race. I believe Harris will get the nod and be sent to a decisive defeat in November. Saving the Senate and retaking the House are the top priorities.


17 posted on 07/21/2024 3:04:25 PM PDT by dowcaet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: dangus

How many ballots submitted by ILLEGALS will STILL show “Biden” as the chosen candidate? LOL


18 posted on 07/21/2024 3:05:28 PM PDT by CivilWarBrewing (Get off my back for my usage of CAPS, especially you snowflake males! MAN UP!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

I fear this could turn out to be a GOP disaster. The Trump\Vance campaign had better be shifting gears fast as they SHOULD have been preplanning 3 weeks ago for this outcome, I fear they have not. Talks are in progress of picking some younger Man to step in with experience for VP, also an open convention could wind up being a dog fight and might get Big Mike in the mix and I do not think Trump can overcome Big Mike as Obama is keeping his powder dry.


19 posted on 07/21/2024 3:05:40 PM PDT by dpetty121263
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

what a messed up map, there is no world where Michigan is further right than North Carolina.


20 posted on 07/21/2024 3:06:09 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 101-106 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson