Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
The US is slow walking weapons to Israel - is the above a 'threat to go nuclear' if necessary?
Globalism / Great Reset –
Under the guise of ‘digital security’, the WEF along with other associated bedfellows has put out a paper to “address harmful content” and makes sure online age verification (“age assurance”) is enforced, while OFCOM states its mission to be establishing “online safety.”
https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Making_a_Difference_2024.pdf
This is one of many parallel efforts to nudge the world into digital ID and in particular biometric IDs. One of the apparent goals of this paper is to push for efforts to “moderating illegal or harmful content or conduct, “ i.e. censorship of opposing views under the guise of misinformation or ‘hate’ speech.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
JUN 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
(FO) Palestine Action activists are organizing a protest outside the CNN building in Atlanta, Georgia, ahead of Thursday night’s presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Organizers are encouraging activists to “converge on Atlanta to end the U.S. war machine.”
Another post reads “Stop The Debate!” and “There Can Be No Election” because both Biden and Trump are pro-war, according to the post.
The protesters are scheduled to meet at Home Park at 8pm Eastern before “marching on the debate”.
OBSERVATION - The size of the response to this call to action will be telling and a harbinger of things to come for each party’s national conventions. The debate is a closed venue - no audience - so watching for any attempt to breach the doors and get to the studio hosting the debate will be critical to watch for as well.
Economy-
According to the latest Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts, cattle markets continue to tighten as feedlot inventory is about 1% lower than last year, and net feedlot placements for April were down 6% over the past year.
In a separate report, meatpackers in the northern U.S. are increasing bid prices due to tight beef supplies. Analysts say those bids will likely head higher, leading to higher consumer costs. USDA reports that overall conditions continue pointing toward declining beef supplies.
OBSERVATION - The wuhan chaos, combined with herd reductions from the drought a couple years ago are still troubling cattle supplies. Ranchers are trying to restore herds and this by necessity means reducing the numbers of cattle available for the meat market. Even here in cattle country, beef has become a luxury item. Govt pressures to reduce meat consumption in general - so save the planet from global warming - are not helping matters either.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
A previously censored paper from The Lancet has now undergone peer review and is available online.
The study, titled “A Systematic Review of Autopsy Findings in Deaths After COVID-19 Vaccination,” analyzed 325 autopsy cases and found that a staggering 73.9% of deaths were either directly due to or significantly contributed to by the COVID-19 vaccination.
The paper’s lead author, Dr. Nicolas Hulscher, faced significant opposition in bringing these findings to light. After initially being downloaded over 100,000 times, The Lancet removed the paper within 24 hours, according to Dr. William Makis.
According to The Daily Sceptic, the reason given at the time was, “This preprint has been removed by Preprints with the Lancet because the study’s conclusions are not supported by the study methodology.”
Results
We initially identified 678 studies and, after screening for our inclusion criteria, included 44 papers that contained 325 autopsy cases and one necropsy case. The mean age of death was 70.4 years.
The most implicated organ system among cases was the cardiovascular (49%), followed by hematological (17%), respiratory (11%), and multiple organ systems (7%). Three or more organ systems were affected in 21 cases.
The mean time from vaccination to death was 14.3 days. Most deaths occurred within a week from last vaccine administration.
A total of 240 deaths (73.9%) were independently adjudicated as directly due to or significantly contributed to by COVID-19 vaccination, of which the primary causes of death include sudden cardiac death (35%), pulmonary embolism (12.5%), myocardial infarction (12%), VITT (7.9%), myocarditis (7.1%), multisystem inflammatory syndrome (4.6%), and cerebral hemorrhage (3.8%).
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/06/lancet-journal-study-finds-73-9-deaths-following/
OBSERVATION - More fuel to the fire, as linkage of deaths to the jab have been at the forefront of many studies over the past year - pushing past the censors. But you probably not see this on any MSM news outlet.
BTW, evidence is coming out that the VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports database is being skewed to reflect fewer wuhan jab related deaths.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Jun 27 - first debate
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
In an uncommon move, the Supreme Court has just opted to extent their current term into July. The reason for this is so that SCOTUS can wrap up work on around a dozen important cases — including President Trump’s immunity case and major rulings on federal agency power, abortion, social media censorship, gun rights, and J6.
***
According to the survey by Rasmussen Reports, Trump leads a national contest with 50 percent of the vote compared to Newsom‘s 38 percent. Additionally, the California governor only registers a 35 percent approval rating—with 45 percent of respondents saying they hold an unfavorable view of Newsom. Former President Trump leads the California Democrat across several key voter demographics, capturing 44 percent of female voters to Newsom’s 43 percent. Additionally, Trump leads with 56 percent of male voters, with Newsom at just 33 percent. Among Hispanics, Trump leads with 53 percent of the vote to Newsom’s 30 percent.
OBSERVATION - This poll is interesting in that Newscum continues to bubble to the top of the list as potential replacements for biden. The gross mismanagement of kalifornia under his leadership clings to his used car salesman personna in the eyes of the public. However, caution must me maintained when looking at these polls, but as a starter, Rasmussen in general is a little more middle of the road than others.
Illegal Immigration –
Recent rapes and murders by illegals are becoming more and more headline materials in local news papers and sources. Most of the perps have been deported multiple times or allowed unsupervised access into the country by DHS. The growth in visible crime (i.e. reported crimes by illegals) is seriously undercutting DHS and biden efforts to down play the border crisis they created.
China –
China’s lunar probe landed back on Earth, after a nearly two-month long mission.
The Chang’e-6 landed in the Inner Mongolia desert on Tuesday, carrying the first ever samples from the Moon’s unexplored far side.
China is the only country to have landed on the far side of the Moon, having done so before in 2019.
Scientists are eagerly awaiting as the samples could answer key questions about how planets are formed.
OBSERVATION - China has come a long way in its space program. Just to land an object on the moon is a significant challenge in itself, let along return to earth with moon samples. In terms of that accomplishment alone, one has to hold very serious the Chinese ICBM threat against the US and rest of the world.
Phillipines –
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced that he would not activate the Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States over the 17 June incident. After much public backlash, Marcos delivered a speech declaring, “Our calm and peaceful disposition should not be mistaken for acquiescence.”
OBSERVATION - China is pushing a red line here and the Philippines may soon call for help in escorting supplies to its recognized territories in the S China Sea.
Russia -
Russian sources claim the shoot down of a US Global Hawk surveillance drone that has been monitoring Crimea since the beginning of the Ukraine war . A U.S. military official says no incident has been reported over the Black Sea.
Other rumors that Russia is planning on instituting a “no fly” zone over much of the Black Sea. Russia is claiming the US drone provide real time targeting data to Ukraine during the missile strike over the weekend. Evidence shows debris from Russian ADA missiles impacted Russian beach crowds, killing and injuring a couple dozen vacationers.
***
One of Russia’s main defense electronics producers and research centers, NII Platan near Moscow, caught on fire, with staff trapped inside. According to Platan’s archived website, its components are used in all Russian fighter jets, nuclear launch munitions, S-400 air defenses and various guided munitions.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70 - 80s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
During the night, air defense systems shot down 30 drones over Russia, the Russian Ministry of Defense reports. 29 drones were intercepted over the territory of the Belgorod region, another one - over the Voronezh region.
Emergency situation declared in Olkhovatka district of Voronezh region due to “detonations of explosive objects” as result of a drone attack. Ukrainian Military Intelligence claims drone attack at the field ammunition depot in Olkhovatka district of Voronezh region
Russia pressing ground attacks all along the front from Soledar northward. No significant gains reported.
Ukraine has claimed to have hit over 30 oil refining and related facilities in recent months. Now they have announced a modification to their Neptune surface to surface missile that extends the range to 1000 Km - enough to reach Moscow.
Outlook —
Russian threats towards the US likely will be focused on the US recon drones operating in the international waters of the Black Sea. Unarmed and unmanned, these drones would be an easy target for Russian fighters to shoot down with relatively no opposition. Earlier this year, manned SIGNINT planes from NATO nations were escorted by fighter jets, but drones like the Global Hawk operate at very high altitudes, making such fighter escorts problematical, pulse the long linger periods.
I fully expect Russia to make an attempt (likely successful) on FORTE10 (Call sign for the Global Hawk on station south of Crimea) in realization for the deaths from Russian interceptors in Crimea. Such an action is likely to provoke further pushback by NATO elements.
The Russia ground offensive will continue, but with ever decreasing effectiveness and greater reliance on “meat” assaults - especially since it is becoming apparent that APCs are in increasingly short supply and Ukraine defenses, bolstered by resupply, are back to their early deadly efficiency. With the freer use of US ATACMS, Ukraine is successfully targeting staging areas for operational reserve forces and assembly areas of new troops. Add to it the increased targeting of logistical and ammunition sites once thought by Russians to be ‘safe’ in Russia territory, the ability of the Russian war machine to effectively continue the high tempo of the ground offensive.
Ukraine OTOH, is suffering from attrition of forces from the Russian offensive on top of those from last summer’s offensive. Ukraine has been able to restore effective defensive elements, but are short handed in putting together the forces necessary for any sizable offensive in the coming months. They ave the capability to launch limited counter offensives in key regions, most prominently Kharkiv region, but lack the numbers to effectively take back ground lost in the recent Russian action.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldova and the EU are progressing towards Moldova entering the union. This will press Russian controlled Transnistria and increase tensions.
Belarus -
Recent military activity reflects preparation for military parades in the country. Nothing offensive in nature currently on the front burners.
Poland –
Buried by other news, Russian/Belarus efforts to channel middle eastern migrants into Poland by forcing border defenses has increased recently in tempo. Currently, Polish border fences/defenses are holding, but grown groups of middle eastern men are growing on the Belarus side. Recent attempts have almost resulted in Poland resorting to lethal methods to deter the migrants.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania to host the largest NATO airbase in Europe. Its placement is a direct in your face to putin and Russia.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- UNRWA being sued for 1 Billion dollars.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
UNRWA is being sued for a billion dollars for its support to Hamas as well as its employees activity participating with Hamas.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IAF conducted air strikes throughout most of Gaza overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A tour of Beirut airport for journalists and ambassadors arranged by Hezbollah-affiliated transport minister— said would prove that the terror group is not storing weapons on site— stopped as reporters banned from entering the main cargo area.
***
The Israeli army confirms it struck infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah’s Aerial Defense Array in the Baalbek area.
***
U.S. reportedly issues indirect warning to Hezbollah discouraging action against Israel.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Hamas leadership is considering relocating from Qatar, where it is currently residing, to Iraq, according to a report in The National in Monday.
The Iraqi government approved the move last month, a senior Iraqi MP disclosed in the report. Iran will allegedly assume responsibility for protecting Hamas’s leaders, offices, and personnel in Baghdad. However, according to a Ynet report, Hamas dismissed these claims, stating, “There is no truth in the reports suggesting Hamas is planning to leave Qatar and move to Iraq.”
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-807557
OBSERVATION - Qatar has been feeling the pressure over hosting the three big leaders of Hamas - all three are billionaires living the life of luxury. Hamas has repeatedly rejected Qatar’s calls for more flexibility in negotiations and a couple months ago indicated that Hamas my no longer be welcome in the country. While protected from direct Israeli attacks in Qatar, move to Bagdad will expose them to far more danger as Israel has hit targets in the country (as has the US).
——— FORECAST ————————-
Uptempo activity in Gaza is expected to continue. Most likely due to the desire to take out as much Hamas as possible to render it relatively ineffective and non-threatening to Israel so it can focus on operations against Hezbollah.
Again, the fight against Hezbollah will be different that against Hamas/Gaza, as S Lebanon is more open terrain, resulting in more ‘conventional ‘ military operations. Continued warnings of involvement by Iran and islamists rushing to Hezbollah’s aid - especially if Israel places them on the ropes. I’m sure some from Iran/Iraq/Syria will attempt the move in support, but at this stage I don’t see a massive reinforcement effort.
Hezbollah / iranian preparations for a war with Israel continues to be complicated by the loss of senior leadership. This also reflects downward the chain of command as lower level officers are also being taken out by daily Israeli strikes.
Time frame of a Hezbollah war by observers continues to be at the earliest August to Sept time frame. Only wild card is if Hezbollah attempts a spoiling attack, forcing the war to begin earlier.
Watching too the deployment of US naval assets to the eastern Med region. They may interject as they did with the Iranian missile attack in the interception of some of the drones and rockets expected to be launched by Hezbollah as well as providing a defensive layer against any attacks on Cyprus. Any direct attacks on Hezbollah ground forces is unlikely unless assets target US vessels. Watching the force buildup in the region.
Besides engagement of US naval assets in the Med, the greatest threat continues to be a potential Iranian effort to close off the Straits of Hormuz - an action made more serious due the gross depletion of the Strategic Oil Reserve by Biden. The oil card is currently the highest card Iran holds, barring sudden revelation of the creation of a nuclear weapon.
Black Swans -
Old sunspot AR3664, which caused the May 10th superstorm, has returned. This is its 3rd trip across the solar disk. Per tradition, it has been re-numbered 3 times: Originally AR3664, then AR3697, now AR3723. X-flares are possible as it once again turns to face Earth.
OBSERVATION - Monitoring because it is interesting. The prolonged center of activity this sunspot cluster has maintained is a little unusual as too its continued capability to produce X class solar flares. The May 10th solar storm was one for the books in how spectacular the aurora was, but did very little to impact the power grid. The grid did feel the effects though.
The scale of events to look for are flares in the X class 15 and higher, which are essentially an order(s) of magnitude larger than May 10th. Those definitely have potential to mess with the power grid.
And please note - the resultant “EMP” from these flares is of a different nature than those expected from an exoatmospheric nuclear blast. Solar flares affect long wave / large scale features, like those collected along power and rail road lines. Nuclear EMPs are a shorter wave (so to speak) and cold impact electronics directly with minimal antenna collection and associated application of power.
Good that someone knows how to deal with the issue .
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
NOTE - I mis-dated the Netanyahu speech to this month.
U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy formally declared gun violence a public health crisis on Tuesday.
He also called for a ban on assault weapons and civilian use of large-capacity magazines …
Medical organizations publicly supported his declaration in the press release, including the American Medical Association, American Academy of Pediatrics, American Public Health Association, American College of Surgeons, and the YWCA.
https://notthebee.com/article/us-surgeon-general-declares-gun-violence-a-public-health-crisis
OBSERVATION-
Essentially, he is calling for-
- Firearm Carry Bans
- Gun Confiscation Laws
- “Assault Weapons” Bans
- Magazine Capacity Limits
- Storage Requirements
- Gun Registration Checks
His ‘advise’ does not carry the weight of law, so his proclamations are at this stage only words. They do set the stage for another avenue that gun grabbers will utilize as they prepare legislation and regulations to accomplish the goals of this declaration. On the worst end of things, the far rumored declaration of another health emergency by the regime a la the wuhan pandemic kind could try to force the issue.
NOTE - On a globalist side, the effort to switch the debate over guns into a ‘health’ arena is one the WHO is attempting to weave into their so far failed attempts to modify the global pandemic treaty.
***
In response to Sunday’s violent clash between anti-Semitic protesters and Israel supporters at a local synagogue, Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass (D.) announced she is considering a mask ban during protests within the city.
Speaking to the public on Monday, Bass said the city was examining several issues related to public protests, including “the idea of people wearing masks at protests.” Many of the anti-Semitic protesters on Sunday were wearing headdresses and masks, obscuring their identity from police. Pro-Palestine protesters blocked the entrance to the Adas Torah synagogue and beat, wrestled, kicked, and bear-sprayed those trying to defend the house of worship.
OBSERVATION - These pro-Hamas and leftist demonstrators rely on keeping their identity secret to avoid arrest at a later time as well as to permit them to hold jobs and social status that would be threatened with unmasking. Antifa has been masking long before the wuhan plandemic, but the plandemic provides ‘cover’ for the use of masks by other participants - under the guise of health protections.
At one of the university protests, those arrested were de-masked and pubic photos were released. If this became more of an aggressive policy - unmasking the perps - I would suspect that leftist participation may drop considerably.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
Threat status upgrade due to increasing evidence that the economy may have or has already reached a tipping point towards a more clearly defined recession, at a minimum.
****
Consumer confidence in June dropped as people expressed growing pessimism about the short-term prospects for the economy.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 100.4 in June, down from 101.3 the month before, the group announced on Tuesday. That is another warning signal for President Joe Biden, who has been trying to shore up support for his handling of the economy.
The index that gauges consumers’ assessment of the labor market and business conditions increased from last month, although the headline number was dragged down by the Expectations Index, which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions.
That index fell to 73 in June, down from 74.5 in May. If the index is below 80, it typically signals a recession ahead, according to the Conference Board. It has been in recession warning territory for some five months.
OBSERVATION - Key indicators like this continue to flash red warning lights in regards to the probability of a recession in the very near future. As noted, the indicator has been in the red zone for 5 months now.
***
U.S. auto sales through the first half of the year are expected to be up by 2.9% compared to a year ago, but there are concerns that the auto industry may not be able to continue that momentum through year-end.
Vehicle inventory levels are growing, incentives are increasing and there’s growing uncertainty surrounding the economy, interest rates and U.S. presidential election, according to Cox Automotive.
The auto data and research firm expects sales growth to slow in the next six months to 15.7 million units, roughly a 1.3% increase from 2023. And, unlike in recent years, growth is coming from commercial sales rather than more profitable consumer sales.
“Overall, we’re expecting some weakness in the coming few months,” said Cox chief economist Jonathan Smoke during a midyear review briefing Tuesday. “We basically are making some assumptions that we can’t quite hold the pace that we’ve been seeing. But we’re not expecting a collapse either.”
OBSERVATION - Economic weakness in that the consumer cannot afford the prices and the interest rates. Article notes that this may work to the advantage of some consumers who have access to the credit necessary to purchase later this year as prices are expected to drop as dealers attempt to offload excess inventory.
***
Due to inflation eating away at earnings and less supply of affordable housing, the majority of Americans today cannot afford median rent prices, according to a new report by the real estate company Redfin.
The analysis comes as other reports indicate that both homeowners and renters are struggling with high housing costs due to inflationary pressures, an inflated housing market, low supply and demand for affordable housing.
“Just 39% of renters make enough to afford the median-priced apartment,” the report states, with renters needing $11,000 more to afford a typical apartment in major U.S. cities.
“The typical U.S. renter household earns an estimated $54,712 per year. That’s 17.3% less – or $11,408 in dollar terms – than the $66,120 a renter must earn to afford monthly rent for the median-priced U.S. apartment ($1,653),” according to the analysis.
OBSERVATION - In spite of all the spit shine the regime has tried to place on the economy, down to earth reality continues to bite their narrative. Overall cost of living is hurting Americans and biden’s policies are only making it worse.
***
Some Wall Street banks, worried that landlords of vacant and struggling office buildings won’t be able to pay off their mortgages, have begun offloading their portfolios of commercial real estate loans hoping to cut their losses.
It’s an early but telling sign of the broader distress brewing in the commercial real estate market, which is hurting from the twin punches of high interest rates, which make it harder to refinance loans, and low occupancy rates for office buildings — an outcome of the pandemic.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group (CSG) will depart Busan on Wednesday to take part in the inaugural U.S.-South Korea-Japan multi-domain exercise Freedom Edge said Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Tuesday during a visit of carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71).
Meanwhile, the U.S. Marine Corps and Japan Ground Self Defense Force have announced that they will carry out joint drills around Japan’s southwest islands that will begin on Friday while People’s Liberation Army Navy Dongdiao class surveillance ships and a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle have been sighted operating around Japan.
On Tuesday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visited carrier Theodore Roosevelt while it was docked in Busan, South Korea and made a speech to the crew.
“Tomorrow, the Roosevelt departs to participate in Freedom Edge, the first-ever trilateral multi-domain military exercise between the United States, South Korea, Japan, and South Korea,”, said Yoon according to a release. “Our shared liberal democratic values, along with our alliance, will serve as another powerful deterrent.”
POLITICAL FRONT –
Jun 27 - first debate
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The squad took a big hit last night with Bowman being primaries out of his house seat. Other members of the squad are facing similar removal at their primaries.
Biden / Harris Watch –
MSM is already attempting to down grade expectations for biden in the upcoming debate, in essence indicating that just showing up would be a victory.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden administration is closing the nation’s largest ICE detention center — despite some 7.4 million migrants remaining free in the US while awaiting court hearings or deportation.
The South Texas Family Residential Center, in Dilley, Texas — about 75 miles southwest of San Antonio — is capable of holding 2,400 migrants.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) said it will replace the facility with 1,600 new beds at other centers in the region.
Former Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) field office director John Fabbricatore told The Post that the decision shows not just a “lapse in judgment, but a deliberate act of amnesty through inaction.”
https://nypost.com/2024/06/24/us-news/biden-admin-is-closing-the-largest-ice-detention-center-in-us/
OBSERVATION - Of course this is a deliberate act.
Russia -
Russia called in the US ambassador to lodge complaints and protests over that Ukrainian attack using US ATACMS missiles that ended up causing casualties to Russian vacationers on a beach adjacent to an active Russian military airbase in the middle of a war zone.
Additional photographs of missile debris from the beach area continue to be identified as belonging to Russian ADA missiles, not ATACMS.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70 - 80s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia continues to press its attacks along most of the eastern front, no significant gains of territory reported. Attacks are part of the ongoing offensive now being dubbed the “Summer Offensive”.
Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces in the Chasiv Yar front are largely depleted and are relying more and more on meat attacks that are including the walking wounded from previous fighting.
Ukrainian forces are reportedly close to regaining the town of Vovchansk north of Kharkiv. Vovchansk was one of the major objectives who’s capture was ordered by putin.
Outlook —
Continued hard fighting on the ground with no evidence of any potential Russian break throughs imminent. Although being dubbed the “summer” offensive, there is no evidence of new, uncommitted forces being brought into the fight. Russia was able to coordinate the attacks of many elements early in the ‘spring’ offensive phase, encircling and bypassing Ukraine forces to gain ground. Now it appears that they have resumed the mindless ‘meat’ attacks and have gone back to ignoring maneuver . More and more, Russian attacks have company and smaller sized units attempting to rush across open areas to get to their objective - only to be decimated by mines, drones and artillery. These speed attacks are increasingly having to use unarmored vehicles due to the heavy losses of armor, making the losses even higher.
This combined with a renewed ability of Ukraine to strike major assembly, command and logistics centers once unobtainable for them is beginning to take its toll. This tactic is at its peak against Russian forces in Crimea. Air defense units and Russian airbases continue to be under severe pressure. Between available ATACMS and its modified Neptune missile, the Kerch Strait Bridge is now very vulnerable, and it is only a matter of time before another attempt to take it out - permanently - is attempted.
Europe / NATO General –
Macron has warned the public that “civil war” awaits France if they fail to vote for his brand of centrist neo-liberalism in the upcoming legislative elections.
The embattled French leader, who’s party is trailing in third place in the snap elections he called, said that the “response of the extreme right” to France’s current problems would lead to insecurity “because it refers people to a religion or an origin, that is what divides them and pushes them towards civil war,” Le Figaro reports.
OBSERVATION - If Macron loses power, the implications of that will reverberate throughout Europe. Many, if not most, are fed up with the invasion of ‘migrants’ from Africa and the middle east and the associated increase in crime and social tensions.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Hamas’s political office denies that Hamas is planning to move its headquarters from Qatar to Baghdad
Gantz: We have the ability to darken Lebanon and degrade a large part of Hezbollah’s capabilities within days.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Violent clashes between the Hamas and the Israeli army in the Tal Al-Sultan neighborhood, west of Rafah.
Extensive air and artillery strikes in central and northern Gaza.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Extensive Israeli security activity throughout the West Bank region, dozens of arrests.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Continued up tempo operations in the Rafah area as well as air/artillery strikes through the rest of Gaza.
Gantz’s comments about secret weapons and the ability to blackout large portions of Lebanon has cause some to express the question as to does Israel possess a non-nuclear EMP weapon of some kind. The US has experimented with such a weapon for well over a decade now, a device that can generate a high powered EMP pulse over a limited target area.
Success with any kind of a weapon will depend heavily on the vulnerability of targeted systems to such a pulse. Impoverished, the state of Lebanon may not have hardened communications systems - that costs money - that Hezbollah likely piggy backs off of. Destruction of the electronic devices that operate that system could seriously hamper Hezbollah’s command and control in the early stages of any war.
It is also unknown how susceptible Hezbollah electronic systems would be. One target would be the remote launching of rockets. Fry the brains of their newer rockets, preventing the ability to target. Again, comms being fried, leaving hezbollah struggling to coordinate their actions against an Israeli onslaught.
In short, Hezbollah /Iran likely haven’t thought about hardening their systems because they didn’t believe an EMP threat to be a realistic planning consideration.
Now the other side of the coin - is this a bluff by Israel?
Syria -
A MQ-9 Reaper UAV of the U.S. coalition came dangerously close to the Su-34 of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria, - Deputy Head of the Russian Center for the Reconciliation of Warring Parties, Major General Yuri Popov
OBSERVATION - Russia beginning to play the games with our drones. Russia has the history of flying dangerously around US and allied aircraft and to say a drone out maneuvered a manned SU-34 is ludicrous.
Thanks for domestic violence to targeted EMP and everything in between. BUMP!
Wait, don't the totalitarian thugs in the FBI have the means to track people by their cellphones? Or is that something they can only do IF the protesters are conservatives? Eff the bast*rds...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Globalists are at it again.
(FO) Denmark is planning to impose a livestock carbon tax beginning in 2030, and the Danish government said it hopes the move will inspire other countries to impose their own livestock carbon taxes.
OBSERVATIONS - Already enraged by demanded reductions in the sizes of herds, these taxes are designed to continue to force farmers to decrease those herds even further. Just like with green energy programs, efforts against cattle et al will only short the people in the long run - creating shortages and in this case, reduce exports to third world countries dependent on farmers for food. Can you say manufactured famine?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
NOTE - I mis-dated the Netanyahu speech to this month.
***
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 Wednesday in Murthy v. Missouri that challengers alleging the Biden regime colluded with social-media companies to remove content the government viewed as unfavorable did not have the legal right to sue. Therefore, the court did not rule on the merits of the case.
The High Court determined neither the Louisiana and Missouri attorneys general nor the five private individuals who brought the lawsuit had standing to seek an injunction against any of the government defendants.
OBSERVATION - Plaintiffs not having standing for the case, so the USSC rejects the plea. A common tactic the courts have recently applied for numerous cases - especially those in regards to the challenges to the 2020 election counts. It is a cowardly action for the court to avoid sticky issues. This decision doesn’t mean that the push to stop the regime from censoring our First Amendment rights, only that future plaintiffs have another hurdle to jump to gain court hearing. On the surface, this should have been a slam dunk, but I think politics and pressure from the deep state may be making inroads.
However the long term repercussions of this decisive indecision will be huge in that it opens wide the door for future censorship efforts and operations by the regime as we enter the most contested part of the election cycle in addition to all the other bombs lurking out there - from economic collapse, to WW3, to a plethora of other items.
***
Ngo on x -
“Antifa are making plans to try to shut down an evangelical Christian worship event in Portland on July 13. Last year they were recorded harassing black and brown worshippers in public. This account says they have to come up with propaganda or lies to “make the march look bad.””
OBSERVATION - Portland is the Mecca for Antifa and its followers, they will not stand for any interlopers. Given the spineless resolve of the city govt to protect its citizens, this Antifa action could get very violent.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
Threat status upgrade due to increasing evidence that the economy may have or has already reached a tipping point towards a more clearly defined recession, at a minimum.
Reports that the housing market is still staggering from high prices and high interest rates.
News that RV sales have improved. My take is that this is in response to the broad inability of the working class to get a home/apartment at a reasonable price. For a couple with potentially few kids, RV/trailers are priced more reasonable and in some cases provide more living space than apartments. Lower costs offset higher interest rates.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
H.R. 8774, or the “Department of Defense Appropriations Act,” the House was given notice that if the bill arrives on his desk, Biden will veto it because it isn’t gay or inclusive enough.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Jun 27 - first debate
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Considerable attention is being directed towards tonight’s debate. Polling going into the debate suggest that poll Americans are yearning for substance on the leading issues that affect them personally, and not the law fare and character assassinations. Voters are leaning towards voting from their pocketbooks.
Rumors that per-debate Trump will announce is VP pick - an act designed to derail/deflate biden’s attacks.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Two judges hit the pause button on Monday, blocking Biden’s latest attempt to cancel student loans under the fancily named “Saving on a Valuable Education” (SAVE) repayment plan.
SAVE was supposed to kick off on July 1. However, Kansas and Missouri led the charge against Biden’s plan with multi-state lawsuits this spring.
The SAVE plan was set to “cancel” at least $156 billion in student loans, and by “cancel” they mean shifting that burden to taxpayers.
Missouri’s lawsuit claims this plan would hit American taxpayers with a $475 billion bill over the next decade.
https://notthebee.com/article/joe-bidens-latest-student-loan-scam-halted-by-federal-judges
OBSERVATION - biden continues to demonstrate his regime is lawless.
Illegal Immigration –
There are reports that the Texas National Guard using pepper balls against illegal border crossers.
Migrants at the border say they are being shot at with pepper balls by the Texas National Guard. The pepper ball guns are considered to be non-lethal. They shoot out a chemical that irritates people’s noses, eyes, and throats. Texas officials say that the pepper balls aren’t supposed to be shot directly at people, there have been complaints from migrants that they have been hit by pepper balls, which cause welts and bruises.
OBSERVATION - Texas’ efforts have reportedly reduced the flow of illegals into the state by nearly 80%. As border barriers improve, these numbers are expected to continue downward. TX also has been cleared by the USSC to continue to arrest illegals for being here illegally, action that is also deterring additional crossing. IMHO, pepper balls is a very good choice at keeping the illegals away.
China –
(FO) Taiwan’s annual exercise will take place from 22 to 26 July. For the first time, the new decentralized command structure will be used to practice blockade-breaking at night and during the day. Due to national security concerns, the exercise will also have minimal media exposure for the first time. Taiwan’s military says this is explicitly in preparation for war with China.
OBSERVATION - Note the key change in scenario planning - blockade breaking vs defeating an amphibious assault. That scenario is gaining greater credibility given recent Chinese exercises around Taiwan.
North/South Korea –
North Korea claims to have successfully launched a hypersonic missile yesterday. However observers in S Korea and Japan report that the test apparently failed early Wednesday. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said the launch originated outside Pyongyang, and Japan’s defense ministry also said it detected a launch.
The south’s intelligence agencies are reportedly investigating, with officials saying it may have been a hypersonic missile that exploded midair. While there are no reports of damage, missile fragments were scattered up to 250 kilometers away, regional reports say. Japan said that before it failed the missile reached an altitude just over 60 miles and traveled a distance of 124 miles.
The missile carrying the reported intermediate-range hypersonic missile, the Hwasong-16B, uses solid fuel.
OBSERVATION - Some initial reports said NK tested a MIRV warhead and not a hypersonic one. From photos, the reported warhead is a glide variety, adjusting its final flight path once it returns into the atmosphere.
Japan –
The Japanese yen fell below 160 against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, its lowest point in more than 37 years as Tokyo scrambled to determine what appropriate intervention measures to take.
The record fall of the yen follows Japanese and South Korean national forecasters expressing alarm on Tuesday after the depreciation of their currencies. The United States had placed Japan on its watch list of currency manipulators last week.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2024/06/26/Japan-yen-falls-low-dollar/2521719416275/
OBSERVATION - A weakened Yen can make Japanese products less expensive for the US while making imports to Japan more expensive. Japan is heavily reliant on imports.
Russia -
*****
The Kremlin said on Thursday that Russia is considering a possible downgrading of diplomatic relations with the West due to the deeper involvement of the United States and its allies in the Ukraine war, though no decision has yet been made.
“The issue of lowering the level of diplomatic relations is a standard practice for states that face unfriendly or hostile manifestations,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked about the possibility of such a move.
“Due to the growing involvement of the West in the conflict over Ukraine, the Russian Federation cannot but consider various options for responding to such hostile Western intervention in the Ukrainian crisis.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russia-diplomatic-ties/2024/06/27/id/1170316/
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Medvedev says America will burn following Crimea missile incident blamed on United States.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Growing evidence that N Korea is sending (or preparing to send) troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine.
OBSERVATIONS - Importing another military force/army can create a whole lot of challenges for Russian command and control. Language and command conflicts are a high possibility for problems.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70 - 80s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 23 Shahed drones, 4 Kaliber cruise missiles and Kh-59/69 missile. Explosions were reported in Kolomyya and in the Khmelnitsky region of western Ukraine.
Russia continues to press attacks all along the eastern front from Kupyansk south to Soledar. Russia also pressing the attack in the Ocheretyne area.
Outlook —
Introduction of N Korean force will not be a game changer for Moscow. It will likely cause more problems than it will solve as difficulties arise from integrating them into the Russian war machine in Ukraine. They likely will be given rear area tasks and not placed forward into the meat grinder on the front. The last thing putin needs at this time is to explain why the NK forces were chewed up and spit out attacking Ukrainians. No info that i’ve seen to indicate what other equipment the NK contingent will deploy with - tanks? Apcs? truck? etc.
How Russia is maintaining its forces on the front suggests that they have increasingly been regular military elements from stations in the country’s periphery. These forces were initially kept in place as part of the Russian overall defensive scheme. Now with the casualties (dead and wounded) exceeding 500,000 and a relatively limited number of conscripted and volunteer soldiers, Russian is depleting these other forces just like they are depleting their mothballed tank/armor/artillery/truck elements. Russia may soon have to reignite new rounds of forced conscription to maintain war efforts.
Also reaching the red line are Russian air defense losses. Reports now indicate that the last S300/400 units in the Russian far east have been moved to the Ukraine theater, and its only S500 operational battery moved to Crimea. Add to it the demands for ADA to protect soft targets like petroleum related facilities and military related bases are forcing the system hard. The upgrades to the Ukraine Neptune missiles now places Moscow in the cross hairs of a more powerful and more difficult to intercept munition.
Bottom line - more of the daily, small unit meat attacks across much of the eastern front, with very little if any coordination laterally or adequate armor support. These attacks may gain some ground for Russia, but at an extremely high cost. Russian has been losing well over 1000 (KIA/wounded) on a daily basis for several months now and is losing the capability of pressing stronger offensive actions.
Europe / NATO General –
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, has been officially approved for the position of Secretary General of NATO. Under his government, The Netherlands provided Ukraine with a lot of military aid. Rutte is known as a strong ally to Ukraine.
***
Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will build a 700-kilometer defense line for €2.5 billion on the border with Russia and Belarus, — Reuters
The project aims to protect the bloc of 27 countries and will therefore require financial support from all EU members.
OBSERVATION - This defensive line will be more towards prevention of migrants entering these state under Russian/Belarus guidance. A singular line of defense in today’s world can be breached by properly trained forces in a short order. Fixed defenses as seen in Ukraine work when established in depth, forcing attackers to face multiple, sequential defensive lines and positions.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- biden reportedly is still holding / slowing delivery of key munitions.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Biden’s top aides told the visiting Israeli defense chief this week that Washington is maintaining a pause on a shipment of heavy bombs for Israel while the issue is under review, a senior U.S. official said on Wednesday.
The official, briefing reporters about national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s meeting with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, said the allies remain in discussions about the single shipment of powerful munitions, which was paused by Biden in May over concerns they could cause more Palestinian civilian deaths in Gaza.
Without providing specifics, the official said other U.S. weapons will continue to flow to Israel as it battles Hamas militants in Gaza and faces Lebanese Hezbollah fighters on its northern border, where escalating hostilities have spurred fears of a wider regional conflict.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/bombs-israel-civilian/2024/06/26/id/1170255/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Internal wars are breaking out between Hamas and the Abu Amra clan. Evidence that much of Hama’s power base has been eroded and that the clans are rising to fill the power void. Israel in general has indicated that it would prefer clan rule over Hamas in a post war scenario.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Growing reports of a buildup of forces, equipment and vehicles by Israel near the Lebanese border. European countries are calling on citizens to evacuate Lebanon.
(FO) Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary General of Hezbollah, claims 100,000 foreign fighters have come from Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Pakistan specifically to help the war effort. He did not give a timeline for how long they have been coming in but noted that many had already served together in Syria’s civil war.
OBSERVATION - Given the extensive Israeli intelligence network in lebanon, it is highly probable that they know where these forces are being bunked /staged at should they exist at all. I think it is highly probable that fighters from these areas have worked their way to Lebanon/Syria, but not in the numbers Nasrallah is boasting.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel carried out airstrikes on area of S. Zeinab (S Eastern Damascus). A Foundation (”Jihad Al-Bina”) under Hezbollah control was bombed. 2 were killed: a Syrian Hezbollah fighter from Nubul-Zahraa & a woman. A radar was also destroyed in Suwayda province
———WEST BANK——————————-
An Israeli soldier was killed and 17 others were injured in a bomb explosion and shooting in the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank. Violent clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the center of the city of Jenin.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israeli commanders keep noting that the bulk of the operations in Gaza are fast coming to a close and the focus is being shifted toward Hezbollah and the north. Since Hamas is so popular among the Gazan “civilian” population, it appears that they are not having too much difficulty getting volunteers to replace losses. However, reconstitution efforts only bring Hamas into the open where IDF can identify, isolate and eliminate vast numbers of them.
I expect to see more clashes between Hamas and clans. Hamas violently put them down when they took power some 18 years ago and grudges die hard among arabs. Israel likely will provide support the clans in exchange for more peaceable relations, as a mechanism to help mitigate Hamas in the future.
Clock winding down on actions in Lebanon. The general consensus of observers and OSINT elements still favor an August time frame at the earliest. israel likely to conduct a major call up of reserve forces within a couple weeks on a kick off date. I’m told that Reservists cannot remain called up for more than 3 months, so a later call up would maximize available forces for the initial push.
Finally, hamas affiliated terrorists in the West Bank are growing bolder and more coordinated in pushing back on Israeli Security forces. Recent action in Jenin indicate growing strength of the resistance.
Iran –
Iranians are set to vote in a snap presidential election on Friday to choose a successor to Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month.
While the president manages day-to-day government affairs, real power over key issues such as Iran’s nuclear program and foreign policy rests with the supreme leader.
Analysts suggest Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei seeks a fiercely loyal president who will align with his views. Khamenei, 85, has held his position since 1989.
Out of 80 applicants, the Guardian Council – a body of clerics and jurists under the supervision of Khamenei – approved six candidates for the election: five from Iran’s conservative political camp and one associated with the reformist camp.
The six candidates are -
1 Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: A former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, Ghalibaf is the current speaker of parliament. Seen as a close ally of Khamenei, Ghalibaf has previously run unsuccessfully for president. As Tehran’s mayor, he helped suppress the 2009 protests against alleged election fraud and has a history of quelling dissent.
2 Saeed Jalili: A 58-year-old ultra-conservative politician and former senior nuclear negotiator, Jalili is also considered close to Khamenei. Known for his hardline stance, he earned the nickname “The Living Martyr” after losing a leg in the Iran-Iraq war. Jalili opposes negotiating with the West over Iran’s nuclear program and has targeted rural voters in his campaign. He ran in Iran’s 2013 presidential election and registered in 2021 before withdrawing to support Raisi. Current CIA director Bill Burns, who dealt with Jalili in negotiations in the past, has described him as “stupefyingly opaque” in talks.
3 Masoud Pezeshkian: The only candidate not from the conservative camp, Pezeshkian, an Azeri lawmaker, is associated with the reformist camp and has served as a health minister and parliament member. His campaign focuses on youth, women, and ethnic minorities, but his chances are slim given the widespread voter apathy. The 69-year-old heart surgeon, who was barred from running in the 2021 presidential election, has said he wants to renegotiate with the West to try and restart some version of the 2015 nuclear deal.
4 Mostafa Pourmohammadi: The only cleric in the race, Pourmohammadi has a controversial history, including alleged involvement in the execution of political prisoners in 1988. He has never addressed these allegations publicly. Pourmohammadi served as interior minister from 2005 until 2008. He is considered a long-shot candidate with minimal chances of being elected.
5 Alireza Zakani: The current mayor of Tehran, Zakani, 58, aims to boost Iran’s economy through non-dollar-based trade and added-value oil products. He has promised free healthcare and cash payments but has provided few details on achieving these goals. He withdrew from the 2021 presidential election to back Raisi. Zakani has said he believes Iran can neutralize the effects of international sanctions but should pursue a diplomatic solution. Despite his ambitions, Zakani is also seen as a minor candidate in the race.
6 Amirhossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi: The incumbent vice president and head of the Martyrs’ Foundation, Ghazizadeh-Hashemi previously received low votes in the 2021 presidential election. He is viewed as another candidate with little chance of winning.
The three frontrunners are considered to be Ghalibaf, Jalili and Pezeshkian.
Many Iranians are expected to abstain from voting due to limited choices, ongoing crackdowns, and declining living standards.
OBSERVATION - Khamenei is driving the selection, so who ever is “elected” will be a follower. Who ever it is, they will face a steep power curve to readjust the nation’s military and political response towards Israel as Iranian proxy forces face serious fighting. With the disastrous missile / drone attack against Israel and the limited but sharp response back, Iran has to be reconsidering its options. First and foremost now appears to be an effort to accelerate its nuclear weapons program. While appearing to be able to have ample weapons grade uranium within a short notice, the construction of a device and the further scaling of that device into a deliverable warhead are major obstacles.
***
OSINT suggest indicates Iranian activities in recent months to shorten time needed to build nuclear bomb; dozens of scientists in Iran are reportedly working on aspects of weaponization, carried out computer tests pertaining to nuclear devices.
OBSERVATION - Computers in many ways have superseded the conduct of physical tests in the development of nuclear weapons. However computer simulations are only simulations and that actual tests on materials and designs are still needed at many levels.
Central / South America General-
A coup was attempted yesterday by a military general and supportive military elements. The attempt was quickly ended by a massive response by the Bolivian people to the call for help from the country’s president.
General Juan José Zúñiga, the military officer commanding the troops that seized central La Paz, declared that he recognized President Arce “for the moment,” but he also hinted at a potential change in cabinet and ministers.
“We are going to recover this homeland,” General Juan José Zúñiga said from Murillo Square after it was taken by troops. An elite has taken over the country; vandals have destroyed the country,” Gen. Ziga said. “The army intends to restore true democracy.”
On Monday, the military chief made an appearance on television and stated that he would arrest left-wing former President Evo Morales if he ran for office again next year.
Morales, who resigned as president and was replaced by Áñez in the midst of protests over accusations of vote-rigging in the 2019 election, urged proponents of democracy to go on strike and block roads.
OBSERVATION - Political turmoil in Central and South America has been growing over the past year as major political shifts have occurred. A lot of the regional instability is due to an absence of an engaged US foreign policy that has leaned to the left.
Thanks for the Great Reset info and the names of the 6 candidates. BUMP
Boo hoo.....
Don't try to cross illegally and you won't get hurt.
Besides, they should count their blessings they aren't getting shot for real, which is the ONLY way to deal with the border crisis.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
NOTE - I mis-dated the Netanyahu speech to this month.
***
During the presidential debate, masked far-left militants were prevented from rushing to the CNN building to shut down the event. Antifa, socialists, communists and pro-Palestine extremists had called for the debate to be shut down.
Biden did more damage to himself and his campaign than any of these punks could.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Special Operations Association of America (SOAA) Chairman Christopher Miller, notes in the letter that his organization is “concerned by the current heightened risk of terrorist attacks against targets inside the United States and both U.S. and allied interests abroad.”
https://modernity.news/2024/06/27/us-special-forces-warns-of-imminent-terror-attack-inside-america/
OBSERVATION - Key to these heightened concerns is the disastrous withdraw from Afghanistan allowing for reconstitution of terror training bases and the resurgent growth of ISIS combined with the uncontrolled flood of illegals into the US.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
CNN placed a very unusual 2 minute delay in the debate broadcasting and denied White House press pool members from watching the debate first hand.
Democrats waking up to the need to replace biden as the 2024 flag bearer now look to an empty bench with no real viable alternatives.
***
The next big event is the potential jailing of Trump from the bogus accounting charges in NY. The USSC restated the unlawful jury instructions eliminating unanimous verdicts and with the biden disaster last night, the question is just how aggressive will dems pursue the current course of lawfare
***
Garland continues to display the two tier legal/justice system in withholding the audio transcripts of Hu’s interview of biden. Could face contempt charges leading to the Sergeant at Arms attempting to arrest him as soon as today.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The democrats via their MSM mouthpieces spent the week promoting how strong and vigorous biden was, while at the same time lowering the bar of expectations for his expected performance in the debate.
Biden was so messed up, Jill Biden had to quickly come up and assist a stumbling/shuffling Joe Biden off the debate stage.
That came to a crashing halt last night as both republicans and democrats were totally shocked at the vegetable standing opposite of president Trump. In short, virtually every democrat pundit and MSM talking head had one common and clear statement - biden must step-down from the 2024 presidential run. This morning things got worse - trending calls to invoke the 25th Amendment and remove him from office now.
The likely ‘conspiracy theory’ is that this was a deliberate set up to force biden out.
I won’t go into the gory details from last night, will take too long and others are doing it better than I, but as a result of last night America is now facing a greater danger than ever before. Our ‘allies’ saw and were dismayed at him during the recent D-day memorials and G7 meetings. Now, with out a doubt, Iran, China, Russia and any other tin plated dictator and hater of America sees that the guy holding the nuclear football is a drooling mental vegetable who is not really in charge of the WH - leaving the question of WHO really is.
The potential for China to move on Taiwan has increased exponentially.
The drive by Iran to obtain the bomb has hit overdrive
Russian actions in Ukraine and against NATO have grown.
Risk of an expansive terror incident in the US is now off the charts.
The level of political and associated even constitutional crisis that a mentally and physically incompetent biden had pushed us into is beyond anything i’ve ever conceived of. Will he survive the weekend as the democrat candidate or even as the sitting president. Either way, the dumpster fire is massive and doesn’t appear to have any fire fighters responding.
China –
According to Taiwan’s defense ministry, there were consecutive double-digit numbers of People Liberation Army aircraft operating around the island in the past week. On Monday, Taiwan said that 23 PLA aircraft and seven PLA ships were detected over the past day.
The number of Chinese planes flying near Taiwan hit double-digits on June 18 and remained at that level into this week. China regularly conducts patrols in the area, but according to one report, the numbers of planes and ships involved are higher than they have been in recent years.
The stepped-up patrols are taking place in the wake of the latest US arms sales to Taiwan. The Biden administration has agreed to sell Taipei Switchblade 300 and ALTIUS 600M-V drones at an estimated cost of $360 million.
An essay in the Journal of Strategic Studies last year noted that Chinese ADIZ violations tend to correspond to politically sensitive developments such as major US and allied training in the region and visits from US or other pro-Taiwan officials.
https://warriormaven.com/china/china-massively-increases-fighter-jet-flights-above-taiwan
OBSERVATION - Increasing military activity by China servers to train its military as well as gauge Taiwan response times and measures. They also server to lull Taiwan into a false sense of normality.
Russia -
*****
Russia’s Defense Minister ordered officials to prepare a “response” to U.S. drone flights over the Black Sea, the ministry said Friday, in an apparent warning that Moscow may take forceful action to ward off the American reconnaissance aircraft.
The Russian Defense Ministry noted a recent “increased intensity” of U.S. drones over the Black Sea, saying they “conduct intelligence and targeting for precision weapons supplied to the Ukrainian military by Western countries for strikes on Russian facilities.”
“It shows an increased involvement of the U.S. and other NATO countries in the conflict in Ukraine on the side of the Kyiv regime,” the ministry said in a statement.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/russia-ukraine-war/2024/06/28/id/1170509/
OBSERVATION - Global Hawk and other NATO intel birds fly in international waters. Should Russia choose to start shooting down the unmanned drones, then things could become spicy in just how the west want to respond.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70 - 80s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine drone has attacked oil depot in Michurinsk district of Tambov region.
The Kremniy El microelectronics plant in Bryansk and a military unit in the city of Karachev, Bryansk region, were attacked by Ukraine drones overnight
Russian forces attempting to push a breakthrough in the vicinity of Pivnichne. Continued assaults in the Ocheretyne region.
Ukraine continues to make progress against Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.
Kharkiv Front -
Kharkiv axis clashes today near Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Sotnytsky Kozachok, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
Outlook —
No bold or dramatic changes to be seen. Ukraine continues its drone strikes on Russia oil related targets, with virtually no opposition.
Russian efforts on the ground continue to chew up a lot of its personnel and equipment with little to no gains.
Belarus -
Belarusian border guards claim the “Russian Volunteer Corps” RDK deployed near the border opposite Yelsk District of Gomiel region, so additional measures are being implemented in the area. Also claimed founding 2 kgs of explosives in the cache near the border
Ministry of Defense of Belarus: due to tense situation at the border with Ukraine, missile division, armed with MLRS Polonez deployed to the area
OBSERVATION - This is the same bunch that tried to reach deep across into Russia, causing mayhem along the way before pulling out. Similar activity into Belarus is far more dangerous and could provoke Belarus to counter attack into Ukraine, effectively drawing them into the war, something Belarus’ military and leadership have been working to avoid.
ISRAEL –
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued combinations of air and artillery strikes against Hamas strongholds.
Some IDF commanders are noting that it could take several months to deal with the vast tunnel network under Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah announces the killing of two of its members in Israeli raids on southern Lebanon. Hezbollah fires dozens of rockets towards Upper Galilee in probable retaliation for their deaths. Iron dome intercepts and no reports of damage or injuries.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A ship traveling through the Red Sea came under repeated missile fire Friday in a likely attack launched by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, authorities said, the latest targeting the crucial maritime route.
Five missiles landed near the vessel as it traveled off the coast of the rebel-held port city of Hodeida in Yemen, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said.
The missiles landed near the vessel, but caused no damage, the UKTMO added.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/yemen-houthi-rebels/2024/06/28/id/1170502/
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues its build up towards an operation against Hezbollah. Hezbollah, for its part, appears to be slightly frozen in place due to key leadership losses and Iran’s efforts to select a new President. Indicators still suggest that the window for invasion is anchored in August sometime.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Mall of America now has a new way to keep shoppers safe.
A new high-tech layer of security has been added after gun-related incidents in recent years.
Signs let you know you’re coming face to face with new facial recognition technology.
“Very mixed feelings about this because it could be useful and not so useful sometimes,” said Melva Bargiela, a long-time Minnesota resident who is now living in Spain.
Cameras with the ability to map faces have been installed to give shoppers peace of mind while detecting potential threats.
OBSERVATION - This is a clear example of how the left is taking the chaos it generates and then moving to impose its ‘solution’ onto the citizenry - one step at a time. Mall of America was once a shining star. With imported Muslims and grown BLM entitlists, crime and mayhem has caused a crisis at the mall, driving shoppers away due to the perception of it no longer being safe. Enter biometric identification tools - facial recognition. Yes, on one hand it can be a good tool to ID and keep troublemakers away. OTOH, it can become the camel’s nose under the tent, making way for broader and more intrusive use and a substantially larger data base of everyone - not the the criminal/troublemaker.
Now take this one step further - apply biometric digital ID’s to the mix - globally.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
NOTE - I mis-dated the Netanyahu speech to this month.
***
SCOTUS has overturned the DOJ’s use of 1512(c)(2), obstruction of an official proceeding, in J6 cases. This has the implication to free hundreds of protestors and reverse their judgements. This exposes the DOJ’s unlawful prosecution of these individuals, many of whom have spent / are spending time in prison.
Like so many other items I’ve been pointing out here for years, this is was another govt effort to silence and intimidate the population into submission. Govt at war with the people.
Word is that Garland is already digging in his heels on a timely response and release of those illegally charged under 1512(c)(2). The fight isn’t over yet.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – which rose 0.1% MoM in May (after a revised +0.3% MoM for April) and in line with expectations. The headline PCE Price Index was unchanged MoM as expected.
OBSERVATION - Note - previous months having to be revised substantially higher - expect same with May data. Just more numbers thrown into the caldron of economic forecasting.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A new report said Pentagon programs to sniff out “white supremacists” in the U.S. military came up empty-handed and were even counterproductive to military readiness and morale.
A zealous diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) bureaucracy has been established in the military and service academies, more recently “through mandated executive orders in the 2010s and 2020s,” the report, produced by the Arizona State University’s (ASU) Center for American Institutions, said. It also revealed that the efforts to “search for ‘violent extremists’ in the military,” have yielded rare and infrequent results.
The report uncovered that the military’s “search for white supremacists – seemingly the only extremists that interest the military – has come up short: only 100 members of the military were deemed to be extremists out of a force of 2.1 million.”
The military has actively pushed DEI policies and re-education classes with the goal “‘to eradicate racism, sexism, and negative biases that diminish our warfighting effectiveness,’” the report said, citing the 2021 Marine Corps DEI Plan.
“Just as private companies have abandoned the toxic advice of DEI consultants and programs, military leaders should end social engineering based on critical race theory and restore approaches that promote character and merit,” said Donald Critchlow, Director of the Center for American Institutions at ASU.
According to the report, “Spending on DEI programming is increasing. The DOD’s allocation for DEI projects jumped from $68 million in fiscal year 2022 to $86.5 million in fiscal year 2023. The Pentagon is requesting $114.7 million for fiscal year 2024.”
OBSERVATION - The link contains more that will make your blood boil. The current regime has taken these matters to an even higher, more absurd level than Obama and even Clinton did.
No wonder recruiting is way down.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The World Health Organization (WHO) has backtracked on its stance regarding the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) injections, now claiming that giving children these vaccines is a “low priority.”
Steve Watson of Modernity News highlighted this sudden turnaround, noting that anyone who didn’t recommend the COVID-19 injections would have been “suspended from social media or publicly ‘canceled.’” But given that the global health body was the one that changed its opinion, nobody batted an eyelash.
Meanwhile, Watson pointed out that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) still recommends COVID-19 vaccines for children aged six months and older. “It’s unclear whether the CDC will follow in adapting its recommendations to this revised WHO policy,” he wrote.
According to the public health agency’s website, “everyone aged five years and older should get one dose of an updated COVID-19 vaccine to protect against serious illness.” Children aged six months to four years may need “multiple doses of COVID-19 vaccines to be up-to-date,” it added. The CDC’s recommendation for unvaccinated children aged six months to four years is equally outrageous, suggesting that they get injected with “two to three doses of updated COVID-19 vaccine. (Related: CDC is about to add covid-19 vaccines to the childhood immunization schedule, creating total liability protection for Pfizer & Moderna.)
The CDC justified COVID-19 vaccines for children by parroting the “safe and effective” line, deliberately ignoring the countless stories of vaccine injuries and deaths caused by the mRNA injection. Moreover, many studies have proven that vaccine-induced immunity wanes over time and that natural immunity remains superior when it comes to COVID-19.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-06-28-who-says-covid-vaccines-low-priority-kids.html
OBSERVATION - I find it unreal that the jab continues to be pressed - especially in the light that it does absolutely nothing to prevent infection AND the massive documentation showing that the jab is more lethal than the virus.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
biden meltdown over whelms the question of who Trump’s VP choice will be. He didn’t announce it at the debate as anticipated.
Contempt vote against Garland is proceeding at a snail’s pace.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Aftershocks from Thursday’s debate still ripple across the democrat party. the biden regime quickly yesterday executed a counter attack against the plethora of voices calling for him to step aside from the 2024 run.
But biden hasn’t won the hearts of core liberal democrats yet. -
President Joe Biden should exit the 2024 presidential race following a subpar debate performance against former President Donald Trump, during which he appeared on the stage as “the shadow of a great public servant,” said The New York Times’ editorial board.
“He struggled to explain what he would accomplish in a second term. He struggled to respond to Mr. Trump’s provocations. He struggled to hold Mr. Trump accountable for his lies, his failures, and his chilling plans. More than once, he struggled to make it to the end of a sentence,” the Times’ editorial said.
“Mr. Biden has said that he is the candidate with the best chance of taking on this threat of tyranny and defeating it. His argument rests largely on the fact that he beat Mr. Trump in 2020,” it said. “That is no longer a sufficient rationale for why Mr. Biden should be the Democratic nominee this year.”
Yesterday, the effort became uniting around biden is to stop the bleeding. They don’t want to come across as a party in disarray, disunited and desperate.
Both 0bama and slick willie called for calm.
In essence, biden’s quick and forceful rejection of the calls to step down basically called the bluff of the, shall we call them the ‘anti-bidens’ of the democrat party. The party has no viable alternative candidate! Even pretty boy newscum would be hammed at this stage. They waited too long for they coup of sorts, and now they have to pay the piper.
Rumor are persisting that top Democrats have given Biden one week to prove himself fit for the presidency after his diabolical debate performance or they’ll oust him, according to reports.
Big financial backers are also warning that they will put their checkbooks away should biden continue in the race.
Next week should prove interesting unless the biden camp can further clamp down this weekend on the calls to step aside.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian losses in June continue to keep pace with the record number of personnel killed and injured in May, which averaged 1,200 per day. These numbers appear to be sustained so far for June as well.
Former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Tatyana Shevtsova, who officially was dismissed mid-June, fled to France ‘with hundreds of millions of dollars saved in cryptocurrency.’.
Tsargrad and other Telegram channels report this with reference to a number of sources, although confirmation or refutation of this data has not yet been received.
Economic Impact –
“Profits in Russia’s coal mining sector have plummeted by 93% in the first four months of 2024 to just RUB 14.3 billion (roughly US$161.2 million).”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70 - 80s and fair.
RUMINT – Ukraine forces building on the border of Belarus.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian missiles hit an apartment building in Dnipro City and unspecified targets near Kryvyi Rih.
More Russian ground attacks along most of the eastern front.
Ukraine hit another oil storage facility .
Russian 83rd Airborne Brigade has retreated from Vovchansk after a costly three-week deployment, - Forbes
They have too many casualties, they can’t fight, there are too many soldiers who refuses to fight along with the survivors of an entire battalion have been trapped in a chemical plant for two weeks.
NOTE- the 83d is ‘airborne ‘ in name only. It has the reputation of being the go-to unit to pull Russia’s fat out of the fire over the past couple years. That luck appears to have run out.
Ukraine reportedly has destroyed the new S-500 air defense system of the Russian Armed Forces, located at Dzhankoi airfield in occupied Crimea. NASA satellite detected a fire at the location.. Details are sketchy at the moment. Initial reports were that the associated radar system was taken out, later reports included the missile TELS as well. Ukraine reportedly used an ATACAMs missile in the attack. Either way a huge hit since Russia has (had) only one of these in existence. The approximate price is $600 million.
Outlook —
The Russian effort against Kharkiv is slowly coming apart and most of the effort is to construct defenses against the Ukraine counter offensive in the region. Russian losses at Vovchansk threaten the eastern wing of the Russian intrusion, splitting the Russian forces there in two and potentially setting up further encirclement because the town is behind the Russian defenses on both sides.
Russia continues to press assaults along a long front in eastern Ukraine. OSINT and other observers are noting that Russia has shifted to more straight infantry attacks - without armor or tank support - in many of these attacks. Opposite of the successes Russia gained earlier this spring, incorporating maneuver and coordinated assaults, it seems they have returned to even greater meat attacks. Many are noting the elevated and sustained levels of Russian casualties - over 1200 per day. This implies that over the past 100 days, Russia has lost as many as 120,000 soldiers killed/wounded. Russia claimed to have committed 400, 000 to the spring (now summer) offensive. This indicates that over 25% of that force is gone, and equipment losses appear to be even higher.
Ukraine losses are closely held, but it appears that they have declined now that ammo resupply has reached the front.
Ukraine is reportedly making over 1000 drones (FBV) per day, production numbers ramped up during the ammo shortage crisis. Now with restoration of supplies from the west, the battle zone has become even more lethal to Russian forces. Drones can make initial strikes on armor/vehicle columns, stopping them long enough for destruction in detail by artillery fire. Videos supplied by Ukraine consistently show that once the forces are hit with drones, Russian soldiers quickly dismount and beat feet back to their lines before the artillery comes down. Many times they are not fast enough.
Ukraine continues to successfully target key Russian air defense assets, with the biggest kill likely Russia’s only S500 unit. As noted before, this effort is paying off big time as Ukraine drones are increasing their success in reaching and hitting Russian oil related facilities. Now that drone effort is shifting to combat airfields further away from the front as Russia tries to protect its air assets by redeploying them out of ATACMS range.
Ukraine innovative and well planned tactics have driven the Black Sea Fleet to the bottom of the sea or keeping them in Russian Ports. This same effort is stripping Russia of its limited air superiority and defenses, first in Crimea and then Russian areas to the east. Remarkable successes for a nation with essentially no navy and no effective airfares to counter newer Russian jets.
Clearly, to me anyway, the Ukraine campaign to neutralize Russia ADA capabilities is a precursor to likely aggressive use of F16s once they get their hands on them and a cadre of pilots trained.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Weather/sea conditions force removal of US pier in N Gaza.
- More Iranian threats against Israel stay away from Lebanon and Hezbollah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The pier built by the U.S. military to bring aid to Gaza is being removed due to weather to protect it, and the U.S. is considering not reinstalling it unless aid begins flowing out into the population again, several U.S. officials said Friday.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/gaza-pier-humanitarian-aid/2024/06/28/id/1170583/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Considerable fighting and air strikes in N Gaza around Gaza City.
Hamas managed to lob a few rockets towards Sderot.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US military stated it had destroyed seven Houthi drones and one ground control station vehicle on Friday.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The United Kingdom submitted a brief questioning to the International Criminal Court challenging its jurisdiction over Israel, potentially delaying moves to issue an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, news reports revealed on Thursday.
The ICC awarded itself the competence to investigate war crimes in Palestinian and Israeli territory in 2021, but the British paper challenges this power.
——— FORECAST ————————-
IDF has suffered some losses in recent days due to IEDs and booby traps in central and N Gaza. Yet these operations have also taken out dozens of Hamas and affiliated elements.
More photos sourced from Hamas show civilian clad terrorists firing mortars at Israeli forces from within tent areas - likely those associated with refugees. These are clear violations of the rules of war, and the UN is complete casting a blind eye towards the practice - only speaking up when IDF takes the position out and there are collateral injuries/deaths.
Israel continues to prepare for the conflict with Hezbollah in the north. I still suspect that the main Israeli thrust will be in the far north, generally in the Sheba Farms area and into the southern Bekaah Valley. Now with July at the doorstep, if August is jump off month, one should see greater reserve call ups and exercises in the north preparing for the attack. Israel may likely use these exercises as cover for the actual attack, similar to what they did on a smaller scale against Gaza/Hamas.
Iranian political challenges associated with the runoff vote puts question marks on how ready Iran would be to respond militarily to an Israeli/Hezbollah fight.
One other wildcard developing is the growth of Lebanese opposition fighting forces looking to hit Hezbollah as well. Grudges from the many civil wars in the country has not aided Hezbollah of late. Hezbollah could face a two front war of its own, with israeli and Lebanese elements coming at them. Be sure, Israel has contacts with these other elements and likely has contingency plans to support their efforts with air power as needed. They would also provide excellent targeting intelligence to allow israel to take out leadership command posts and rocket storage locations. Remember, S Lebanon is not the dense urban environment that Gaza is and the fight will be more conventional and the IAF able to unleash with larger bombs without excessive concerns over collateral damage and losses.
Iran –
Iran announced Saturday it will hold a runoff presidential election to replace the late hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi after an initial vote saw the top candidates not securing an outright win in the lowest turnout poll ever held in the Islamic Republic.
The election this coming Friday will pit reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian against the hard-line former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.
Mohsen Eslami, an election spokesman, announced the result in a news conference carried by Iranian state television. He said of 24.5 million votes cast, Pezeshkian got 10.4 million while Jalili received 9.4 million.
Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf got 3.3 million. Shiite cleric Mostafa Pourmohammadi had over 206,000 votes.
Iranian law requires that a winner gets more than 50% of all votes cast. If not, the race’s top two candidates advance to a runoff a week later. There’s been only one runoff presidential election in Iran’s history: in 2005, when hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad bested former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
The overall turnout was 39.9%, according to the results.
OBSERVATION - This runoff could be interesting. Odds look to the one who will follow the hardline ruling mullahs the best. A ‘reformist’ doesn’t fit the mold very well. What other effects did the low turnout cause?
***
Iran’s acting FM had phone calls with EU FP chief, UN Secretary General as well as foreign ministers of Germany, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Cyprus in past 24 hours to discuss the situation in Gaza
Turkey –
Erdogan says there is no obstacle for establishing relations with Syria’s Assad. “Turkey doesn’t have any intention to interfere with Syria’s domestic affairs,” he said. “We can come together with Assad as we did in the past as a family”
OBSERVATION - Assad has not been very happy with the Turkish incursion into N Syria. Turkey and Syrian forces have fought on occasion and Turkey in some measure supports the rebels over Assad. Lately, Turkey has focused its efforts to take out Kurdish elements that have used N Syria as a base for incursions into Turkey.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane season is winding up the Gulf region. Get yourselves prepped now and avoid the crowds.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Managed retreat, also known as planned retreat, is a strategy for responding to climate change and rising sea levels by relocating people and assets out of harm’s way. It is a process where communities, buildings, and infrastructure are gradually evacuated from areas designated as uninhabitable or dangerous due to changing geology, extreme weather, or climate change.
In Australia, this concept is gaining traction as a necessary measure to mitigate the impacts of climate change, particularly in coastal communities. In New Zealand, managed retreat is becoming a necessary adaptation strategy to address the impacts of climate change.
That’s the official narrative.
Meanwhile, in New Zealand, residents are up in arms about attempts to impose “retreat” from coastal areas under the pretext of a predicted rise in sea levels.
As this media report shows, they are not buying the scaremongering climate propaganda.
Tim Rees said. “I’ve lived by Paraparaumu Beach since 1965 and the beach is actually getting bigger. For 45 years I’ve dived off Kāpiti Island and the rocks are still at the same height at low tide”.
Added Tania Lees: “The science isn’t settled and there is no consensus. We don’t believe the sea levels are rising significantly and [that] we will all be flooded.” Central and local government couldn’t fund “a process on this scale”, she said. “So far, the ratepayers have paid in excess of $4 million for the Takutai Kāpiti process. “We simply can’t afford to spend more. If implemented, managed retreat would be in excess of $1 billion.”
https://expose-news.com/2024/06/29/managed-retreat-is-a-scam-to-take-peoples-homes/
OBSERVATION - Australia and New Zealand have continued to be beta-testing sites for global reset agenda items. this is just the latest in their progressive move towards greater totalitarian.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
In its final estimates for the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised all measures of income and corporate profits downward, according to a report released by the BEA on Thursday.
Thursday’s report details the third, and final, set of revisions to data comparing the first quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2023, in terms of seasonally adjusted annual rate of change. Across the board, measures of personal, corporate and national income growth were revised downward.
Compared to the previous quarter, the first quarter increase in real gross domestic income (GDI), was revised down 0.2 percentage points, from 1.5 percent to 1.3 percent. GDI is the total income that all sectors of an economy generate, including wages, profits, and taxes.
In terms of personal income, the income that is received by persons from all sources, the final picture for the first quarter is less sunny than BEA previously reported:
Current-dollar personal income was revised down $7.7 billion to a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of $396.8 billion in the first quarter.
Disposable personal income growth was revised down by a seasonally adjusted annualized $26.6 billion to $240.2 billion in the first quarter.
Real disposable personal income increased 1.3 percent, a downward revision of 0.6 percentage points.
Likewise, the first quarter profit picture for corporations is grimmer than the BEA previously reported:
Friday’s final report also notes that the nation’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024, an upward revision of 0.1 points from the previous estimate of 1.3 percent.
Even at 1.4 percent, the growth in GDP was the slowest quarterly increase in the last seven quarters.
OBSERVATION - These numbers reflect the pocket book impacts on american perceptions regarding the economy. They do not bode well for any claim of bidenomics ‘success’
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 27 recommended forthcoming COVID-19 vaccines for virtually all Americans.
“CDC recommends everyone ages 6 months and older receive an updated 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine to protect against the potentially serious outcomes of COVID-19 this fall and winter whether or not they have ever previously been vaccinated with a COVID-19 vaccine,” the agency said in a statement.
The COVID-19 vaccines now available, which are also broadly recommended, target the XBB.1.5 strain. But observational data indicate they provide short-lived protection against COVID-19 infection and hospitalization.
OBSERVATION - Unfreeking believeable they are still pushing the jab when all the data shows it is worthless and in fact is more dangerous than wuhan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
One of the aftershocks from the biden debate debacle is the growing sense that democrats will not retain power in the Senate and lose seats in the House. The president candidate fight is sucking the oxygen from their ability to fight for congress and are rallying the forces to prevent a total melt down of the party over biden.
A deadline is fast approaching in that in a matter of a few weeks the democrats will not be able to remove biden from the ballots in several key battleground state, severely threatening to cause the loss of those states to trump.
Biden / Harris Watch –
There seems to be an ominous lull in the massive fallout following Thursday’s debate. The DNC organization is facing a difficult choice and internal wars are ongoing. They have the choice to maintain pressure on biden in order to force him to step-down on his own (preferred option). Their alternative being forcing the issue, even to the extent of a 25th amendment option.
biden is reportedly huddled with family at Camp David to discuss their path forward. Unconfirmed reports that jill biden is calling most of the shots and is demanding the DNC cough up $2 billion for a presidential library, immunity from prosecution for the WHOLE family and a $200 million dollar book deal. She’s left very little room for negotiations. Adding to that leverage are the reports that biden will hold onto campaign contributions and not turn them over to the DNC or any replacement candidate.
VP Harris, duly miffed that she has been left out of the post-biden discussions is being encouraged to execute the 25th amendment option - so that she can be president, if but for a few months, and potentially grab the rights as the next nominee. She is facing a slick, behind the curtain effort by the used car salesman newscum for that slot.
Support for biden continues to erode, with another MSM flagship news paper - the Atlanta Journal-Constitution coming forward with a front-page editorial Saturday asking Biden to pass the torch to another, more competent candidate, following the lead of The New York Times. “The unfortunate truth is that Biden should withdraw from the race, for the good of the nation he has served so admirably for half a century,” the AJC Editorial Board wrote.
Big democrat donors are joining the pressure, some outright announcing the stoppage of support.
The implications of the struggle between biden supporters and the DNC are huge. The debate totally removed any covering biden’s mental state had and exposed it to the whole world. So far post debate polls have been scarce but indicators are his numbers have crashed like the Hindenburg. Along with it any credibility of those elements that have over the past couple years continually pushed the narrative that though old, biden was still as sharp as a tack.
The potential of a switch in candidates this late in the game threatens to throw the party into chaos. They really don’t have anyone at this point that could challenge trump because of how they clung to biden’s coattails over the past few years.
One team that has been put out there is a newscum / whitmer (gov Michigan) team - a far leftist duo that will likely cause more moderate democrats to split or just not turn out.
democrats face another problem. The bylaws of the DNC do explicitly mention that the DNC’s powers include filling a vacancy on the national ticket; such a vacancy is to be filled by “voting … in accord with procedural rules adopted by the Rules and Bylaws Committee and approved by the Democratic National Committee.”
That word is key: vacancy. As long as Biden is around and running, no such vacancy exists. Changing this process means changing the party rules. And that means going to the committee named above: the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee.
Guess who fills many of these positions - biden supporters.
Bottom line is that at this stage, it appears that the biden campaign won’t cooperate with any transition effort and will not only keep all the money, but fight this process every step of the way, taking the 2024 race hostage. If Dems try to replace Biden, Team Biden will make sure that whoever they replace him with loses.
One more thing to add. Biden is only fully functional from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., according to a report by Axios published Saturday in the wake of Biden’s disastrous not-ready-for-primetime debate with President Trump Thursday night. The report states White House staff know there are ‘two Bidens’: One who is fully engaged for about six hours a day and the one Americans (and the world) saw staring into space and struggling to articulate lucid, complete thoughts during the debate Thursday night.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
In a follow up to yesterday’s note on Russian personnel losses, US officials are stating that “But despite its losses, Russia is recruiting 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers a month — roughly as many as are exiting the battlefield”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70 - 80s and fair.
RUMINT – So far unconfirmed but F16 might have flown its first combat mission yesterday in Ukrainian airspace.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 36 drones overnight. Ukraine drones did manage to hit some of their targets - explosions were reported in Lipetsk overnight
Large Russian ground assault in the Ocheretyne area as well as further north in the Pivnichne region.
Russian ministry of defense claimed full occupation of Spirne village in Donetsk region of Ukraine
Ukraine forces have pushed back Russian forces in the Kharkiv region as well as some areas around Chaziv Yar. In the Vovchans`k direction (Kharkiv front) Ukrainian forces continue to have success. One of the more important things of the situation here, is Ukrainian aircraft are operating more freely with the destruction of most Russian air defenses in the area.
Outlook —
Ukraine is gaining advantaged in the Kharkiv front to the extent that Ukraine fixed wing ground attack aircraft are operating with little to no threat due to the targeted decimation of Russian ADA elements.
Elsewhere on the ground, the standard grind of battle, with no evidence of any pending Russian breakthrough and growing indicators that Ukraine is retaking ground.
Europe / NATO General –
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who is known to be sympathetic toward Israel, has been nominated to replace Joseph Borrell as the next European Union foreign minister. Kallas, who has yet to be formally appointed, belongs to the liberal European political camp. She supports the two-state solution but, at the same time, has expressed strong support for Israel.
***
France is voting in a parliamentary election that could make history, with the far right closer to power than it has ever been in modern times.
The National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella is well ahead in the polls - three weeks to the day since they won European elections. President Emmanuel Macron reacted immediately by calling a national vote and stunning his country.
A high turnout is expected among 49 million voters for such a pivotal election and polls close in the big cities at 20:00 (18:00GMT), when the first exit polls come out.
This is a two-round election, and most of the National Assembly’s 577 seats will not be decided until the second-round run-off vote next Sunday.
Marine Le Pen declares there will be mass deportations if her party wins the upcoming French election.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Significant show of force over Lebanon by IDF assets.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Saturday that Iran’s message of an “obliterating war” made it worthy of destruction
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) Pre-Trial Chamber I decided on Thursday to delay its decision on whether to allow ICC prosecutor Karim Khan to issue arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes.
***
Hamas says its leader, Haniyeh, discussed by telephone with the head of Egyptian intelligence on ceasefire negotiations in Gaza from his palace in Qatar.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting in the Gaza City and Rafah areas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah publicly thanked Iran for its support of Lebanon on Saturday.
Hezbollah’s leader thanked Iran following the Islamic Republic’s envoy to the UN addressing Friday night’s tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, and after he posted on his official X, formerly Twitter, account that, “if Israel expands its activities in Lebanon, a war of annihilation will ensue.”
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati addressed the tensions, stating, “The threats facing Lebanon are a form of psychological warfare. We are at war, and there are many casualties and destroyed villages due to Israeli aggression. The intensity of psychological warfare is escalating, but I believe we will overcome this phase to achieve a semblance of stability at the borders.”
IAF launched a display of force operation over S Lebanon and Beruit. Residents in Beruit reported sonic booms.
Saudi Arabia urges its citizens to leave Lebanon immediately.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Explosion heard in the Damascus area from a suspected IAF strike.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Very high number of Israeli security operations throughout the West Bank overnight.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Arab League removed Hezbollah from the list of terrorist organizations.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Continued pockets of intense fighting as IDF locates and liquidates Hamas elements trying to reform.
Growing reports of Hamas / clan warfare as each tries to establish control for a post war leadership in Gaza.
Israel continues to prepare for war with Hezbollah and yesterday’s IAF demonstrations are designed to war the govt of Lebanon the dangers of not confronting Hezbollah causing the fight to eventually spread to other areas of Lebanon. Still see the opening of an offensive window being some time in August at the earliest.
Iran –
Masoud Pezeshkian, who is the sole reformist running in Friday’s election, made the comments to journalists after voting, according to The Associated Press.
Responding to a question from a journalist about how Iran would manage international relations if he were president, Pezeshkian replied, “God willing, we will try to have friendly relations with all countries except Israel.”
His anti-Israel comments are not surprising, as both moderates and hardliners have long been critical of Israel.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/392286
OBSERVATION - The big question is how quickly either candidate can organize a response to any war in S Lebanon and to what extent Iran will be able to support Hezbollah.
Syria -
Russian Ministry of Defense - on June 29, from 11:00 to 11:05, over the village of Es-Sukhneh, Homs province, at altitudes from 7.5 thousand to 8.5 thousand meters, there was once again a dangerous approach of the MQ-9 “Reaper” unmanned aerial vehicle “coalition” with the Su-35 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces
OBSERVATION - Russia building the case for a shoot down. May see a shoot down over Syria more defendable than shooting down the Black Sea drone clearly operating in international airspace.
Misc of Note –
Beryl, the first named hurricane of the season, is due to make landfall on a number of Caribbean islands late on Sunday.
The major storm is growing in strength as it moves across the Atlantic Ocean towards the Caribbean islands of Barbados, Dominica, Grenada and Martinique, among others.
Forecasters say that Hurricane Beryl, which formed Friday night, has the potential to grow into a Category 3 storm as it moves from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days.
They predict that by the time the storm reaches the Windward Islands - made up of Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada - there will be “hurricane-force” winds, a “life-threatening” storm surge and heavy rainfall.
OBSERVATION - The current track has this hurricane tracking almost due west and straight into southern Mexico.
XBB 1.5 strain to hurricane Beryl including info in between. Thanks Godzilla.
Added Tania Lees: “The science isn’t settled and there is no consensus. We don’t believe the sea levels are rising significantly and [that] we will all be flooded.” Central and local government couldn’t fund “a process on this scale”, she said.
Liberal alarmists want us to believe water on one side of a coffee cup can be higher than on the other side.... And they use that lie to push totalitarian solutions to a problem that at best is minor. Also, while we're obsessing about 'warming' we might be missing things that are really happening.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Ireland’s new Hate Speech Bill offers no clear definition of what “hate” entails. Experts warn this could pave the way for the criminal prosecution of a wide range of expression considered unfavourable by authorities…“The world is watching Ireland. The censorial ‘hate speech bill’, if passed, would not only shut down conversation nationally – as the home of various international social media headquarters, it would have a global impact on what we can all discuss online.”
https://expose-news.com/2024/06/30/irelands-hate-speech-bill-will-have-a-global-impact/
OBSERVATION - Concern growing that laws like this can spill over into the rest of the internet and contaminate open discussions there. This reflects the overall goal of globalist to outlaw any speech that goes against their narrative.
In another example of politicians using judges to suppress free speech, Justice Alexandre de Moraes of Brazil has once again set his sights on trying to censor content on X globally.
He gave them 2 hours to delete posts criticizing a Brazilian politician or face a daily fine of 100,000 real ($18,000 USD).
Despite X complying in good faith by withholding the posts in Brazil, he issued a fine of 700,000 real ($126,000 USD), which he claimed was 100,000 real for each of the 7 posts he wanted deleted.
X paid the original 100,000 real fine and is appealing the order, citing “a clear denial of due process.”
NOTE - what can’t be accomplished presently by a singular, global element, is being nibbled away at by individual, leftist govts.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
NOTE - I mis-dated the Netanyahu speech to this month.
***
Pro-hamas protestors upset a number of LGBT parades over the week end.
These islamic elements are beginning to cast aside the activist elements of LGBT as the movement to force islamic principles and govt on the US grows. Casting away the useful idiots - not surprising as they have fulfilled their initial purpose of pulling larger crowds together. I suspect that the level of violence towards LGBT from islamaphiles may grow over the coming months.
***
There are some rumored attempts at leftists to organize protests on the 4th. Observers / OSINT elements are noting a lack of enthusiasm for an national event on social media. Some level of protests can be expected in the common areas such as Portland, etc.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
U.S. military bases in Europe were put on a heightened state of alert over the weekend as installations urged vigilance among their members. At U.S. European Command headquarters in Stuttgart, the Army garrison on Sunday issued a community wide alert that the force protection threat level was elevated to condition “Charlie” until further notice. Similar directives were sent to other bases in Germany, including the Army’s Rheinland-Pfalz and Ramstein Air Base, which together form the largest U.S. military community overseas. The Rheinland-Pfalz garrison alert includes Baumholder and outlying installations in Romania and Bulgaria. Aviano Air Base in Italy also rose its condition level to Charlie, and other installations in Italy introduced enhanced security measures. The Charlie threat level “applies when an incident occurs or intelligence is received indicating some form of terrorist action or targeting against personnel or facilities is likely,” according to the Army’s website.
OBSERVATION (H/T Oorang) - There have been growing concerns of terrorism across much of Europe over the past couple months. Some RUMINT that the threat source may be ISIS who’s been active in Russia over the past year.
***
Special reminder now that we are in the 4th of July celebration week. Because of the high visibility of the holiday and associated concentrations of people, conditions are ripe for some kind of terror strike - from lone wolf to a larger, organized action. There are a substantial number of known and suspected individuals from terrorist states here that have crossed the border illegally.
Enjoy the holiday, but keep your heads on a swivel.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Finland plans to offer preemptive bird flu vaccination as soon as next week to some workers with exposure to animals. They are going to administer these shots before any pandemic, epidemic or public health emergency has even been declared and without any evidence, this has even mutated to infect human beings.
OBSERVATION - Panic, panic, panic. IIRC, such actions historically have been bad news for humanity as it permits the sudden mutation of the virus.
***
A recent study using CDC data has uncovered a worrying trend: a significant increase in deaths from neurological diseases among young adults aged 15-44 in the United States. The study, conducted by Phinance Technologies, highlights a sharp rise in deaths where neurological conditions were either the primary cause or a contributing factor, especially from 2020 onwards.
https://greatgameindia.com/breaking-covid-19-vaccines-linked-to-rise-in-neurological-deaths-study/
OBSERVATION - Not familiar with the author of this report - as to the respectability of this ‘report’. However, it does track with other reports of neurological issues associated with the jab.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is expected to release their decision on former President Trump’s executive immunity claims at 10 AM EST this morning.
***
Aftershocks continue to roll through the political sphere from last Thursday’s debate. MSM and some appear to have drawn back from over expressions of support for biden. Others, like pelosi have gone full monty gaslighting claiming the it was Trump who actually displayed mental degenerations.
Needless to say, the biden saga has sucked a lot of air out of democrat house and senate races, as those who’ve hitched their wagon to biden and now trying to softly disengage themselves. Here is a rare example of national politics hitting hard on what are essentially local races.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Results of the biden confab at Camp David are leaking out and it appears that they have decided to support the continuation of his run for president. The decision was not without a great deal of converse. biden’s sister Valerie reportedly accused Jill of ‘elder abuse’ and that biden can no longer cognitively make decisions for himself.
Not surprisingly, the greatest advocate of continuing the campaign is the on that is facing the most current legal challenges - Hunter. He teamed up with Jill to push the continuation of the campaign. Without the cover of the president, hunter is hanging out to dry and facing multiple other charges - currently held at bay by his association with his father.
Another result is that the “family” have targeted biden’s top advisors, putting the blame on them for Biden’s poor performance at the debate They reportedly demanding Joe fire or demote his top campaign staffers.
Growing storm of public opinion post debate may cause the ‘family’ to reconsider. An alarming 72% of Americans say biden is not only mentally and cognitively unfit to be president but he also should not run for reelection, an eye-opening poll result released Sunday found after Thursday night’s debate.
Biden does not have the “mental and cognitive health to serve as president,” according to 72% of Americans in the CBS News/You Gov poll out Sunday.
While this total is alarming, it only expands on the majority of Americans who already saw it. This 72% is 7 points higher than three weeks ago, when it was still a 65% majority of Americans who see it the way Donald Trump, his campaign, and conservative media have seen it for years.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/cognition-unfit-president/2024/06/30/id/1170723/
OBSERVATION - The democrat crisis is not over, not by a long shot. The question now becomes how badly are the democrats willing to allow themselves to be blown away at the ballot box and how many seats lost in Congress. The DNC, though putting on the face of support, is actively allowing the negative reporting via MSM on biden’s decayed cognitive abilities to persist and grow, like the latest being his shortened hours of having any kind of mental functioning. With biden as president - even as a vegetable - the ‘family ‘ will continue to rake in $$$$ and other power perks. 4 more years would provide cover from DOJ actions to curtail their crimes.
The easy out for the democrats - biden ‘voluntarily’ stepping down - is currently denied. This leaves only a few other alternative means of removal, more potentially damaging to party unity. One being the 25th amendment route, with another being an ‘open’ convention where he could be replaced.
A name rising on the list of replacements is Michigan gov Whitmer, the wicked witch of the north. In addition to Whitmer, others under consideration include.Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and even California Governor Newsom. Major problem is they (including newscum) are not well known outside of their state - creating a huge PR campaign with a very short window before the elections. Second, many key swing states will have locked in their ballots - so removing biden will not be an option in as many as three of them, if I understand the democrat concerns correctly.
At this stage, biden will be the nominee unless something further happens either directly due to his mental/physical condition or elements within the party decide to act in a more aggressive manner.
China –
China is attempting to clone a SpaceX Falcom booster rocket. They had a major set back yesterday as an engine test failed spectacularly. China’s quality and technology have come a long way, but will need to make a substantial jump to match what SpaceX has been doing for the past four years.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Some Russian commentators are calling for a demonstration nuclear detonation as a means to escalate Russia pressure on NATO for supplying longer range and more lethal munitions to Ukraine. Some of this propaganda may well also to be to warn off US allowing Ukraine to us ATACMS to strike key airbases 200 km from the border. These airbases contain the bulk of Russian aircraft being used in the war.
Kerch Bridge update –
Overnight Ukraine targeted Russia ADA sites established to protect the bridge. Numerous explosions and large fires reported by locals, suggesting the strikes were successful.
Logistics –
Rumors that Russia is beginning to dig mothballed BTR-70s and bring them into service. These APC are notorious for being called death traps by Russian soldiers, in part due to the small escape door located between the middle two wheels as well as having two gasoline engines and gasoline tanks in vulnerable locations. Additionally, armor on these vehicles is very easily penetrated by machine guns.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Big fire after and explosion in Nova Kakhovka at occupied part of Kherson region following a Ukrainian missile strike
Russian missile struck Dnipro city. Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Stepova Novoselivka village of Kharkiv region of Ukraine and Novopokrovske village of Donetsk region.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims it shot down 36 drones in the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions overnight.
Reports overnight that Ukraine struck a key air defense position near the Kerch Bridge, temporally closing the bridge.
Ukraine continues to take ground in fighting around Hlyboke and Vovchansk, Kharkiv region
Russian Territory –
Residents of the Belgorod region are complaining about massive power outages. There is no electricity throughout the entire region: in Belgorod and its suburbs, in the Belgorod, Valuysky, Shebekinsky districts, the city of Stary Oskol and other settlements, local Telegram channels write. The channels, citing power engineers, report that there will be no electricity until 13:00 Moscow time. The cause of the accident is not specified.
NOTE - blackout occurred at the same time Ukraine launched a drone attack on the region.
Outlook —
In some key battlefield areas the tide of battle has shifted into Ukraine’s favor and they are regaining ground lost to Russia over the past several months. The Russian spring offensive has drained them of a lot of men and more so, key equipment like tanks, APCs and artillery. The Ukraine UAV attacks are relentless and in some ways more effective than artillery.
Russian forces are increasing attempting what some are calling “Mad Max” assaults, where Russia troops are mounted on motorcycles and ATVs in a mad dash towards jumping off locations for ground assaults. Needless to say, these assaults come with high casualties for Russian forces.
Increasingly, Russian sources / milbloggers are reporting of substantially low morale as units have been decimated to just a few survivors - and Russian commanders force them into more ‘meat assaults”.
No word on the rumored first tactical use of F16s by Ukraine.
A bigger thing to watch is if Ukraine gets the OK to attack Russian airbases outside the 100 mile limit set by the US. Expansion of the area of engagement will further twist the tails of Kremlin planners. Ukraine has developed other missiles capable of striking these bases needing no US approval, but the ATACMS systems are very efficient and virtually unstoppable by Russian ADA assets. Casual Russian parking of these important combat aircraft - as documented by open source imagery , would make such a strike shooting ducks in a barrel.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO representatives have expressed concern over Russia’s actions in the NorthSea over the potential mining of critical Western infrastructure. Russian ships reportedly performed as many as a thousand suspicious maneuvers
***
Macron’s call for snap election have backfired on him in a big way. Yesterday France’s far right National Rally (RN) made big gains in the first round of the parliamentary election, winning 33.4% of the vote. The left wing coalition New Popular Front came second with 27.9%
Celebrating her party’s success, Marine Le Pen said “democracy has spoken” as she declared President Emmanuel Macron’s camp “practically wiped out” - his alliance came third with 20.7% of the vote
It is unclear if the RN will be able to garner enough support at the second round next Sunday to take full control of the National Assembly.
Voter turnout in Sunday’s poll soared - the highest in a parliamentary election since 1997
Almost immediately after results came out, thousands of leftists/antifa and muslim took to the streets, burning and looting businesses in Paris and other town. Many businesses quickly boarded up in anticipation of more rioting.
France may well be on the edge of a civil war over the next couple weeks.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting reported in the Gaza City, Khan Yunis and Rafah areas overnight
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Explosion heard in the Damascus area from a suspected IAF strike.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces arrested at least 16 Palestinians from the West Bank last night
——— FORECAST ————————-
Continued IDF operations which allow Hamas elements to regroup only to have them hit by IDF raids, artillery and air strikes to continue.
Israeli pressure on the official govt of Lebanon to continue in an effort to develop a split of some degree with Hezbollah will continue as well. This, combined with continued precision targeting of Hezbollah key leaders will keep the organization on its toes and degrade Hezbollah’s ability to plan and eventually to respond to future Israeli operations.
Finally, Iran works thru its election for a new president, disrupting its own preparations against Israel.
What is concerning is that Iran appears to be making the case for Israel’s war against Hezbollah to justify accelerating its nuclear program. Iran may be counting on the mental case biden has clearly shown the world that he is. But this is a two edged sword. Jumping forward towards a nuke and fearing no coherent US response may release Israel - seeing the same demential US president - to take matters into its own hands.
Turkey –
Israeli airline El Al reported that its Warsaw to Tel Aviv flight was not allowed to refuel at Turkey’s Antalya airport after making an emergency landing.
According to El Al’s statement, workers at the Antalya airport refused to refuel flight LY5102 before it could take off for Israel. Following the incident, the plane flew to Rhodes in Greece, where “it will refuel before taking off to Israel,” the airline said.
The plane was eventually allowed to take off to Rhodes, Greece to refuel before flying to Israel.
Turkish diplomatic sources confirmed that the plane was allowed to make an emergency landing for medical reasons.
After last year’s earthquake in Turkey , Israel sent the largest international rescue team, saving countless lives.
OBSERVATION - This act is an affront to civilized behavior.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
NOTE - I mis-dated the Netanyahu speech to this month.
***
IMHO, we are now crossing the threshold into CW2 and have not reached the kinetic stage yet. Leftist hysterics over the USSC immunity decisions sparked calls all over for the assassination of Trump, conservative USSC members and many other conservative leaders. These calls for violence are from all up and down the line. One example posted on “X” -
- “President Biden, acting within the scope of his official duties, could dispatch the military to take out the conservative justices on the Court” – Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA)
- According to the Supreme Court, Biden could now send in Seal Team 6 to take all of them out. He could send in the military to take out Trump. He has “immunity” for official acts now! - Harry Sission
- CNN’s Jake Tapper, who’s at the center of a $1 billion defamation suit against CNN, kept coming back to an insane, liberal conspiracy theory that the ruling opened the door to presidents assassinating their political rivals.
After playing oral argument audio from April, in which liberal Justice Sotomayor floated the bonkers notion of a president ordering SEAL Team 6 to assassinate a political rival, Tapper asked a panel of CNN legal analysts: “Did the court say, ‘Yeah, you can assassinate a political rival?’”
Democrats, as usual, take their conclusions to the dramatic extreme in order to provoke public fear through emotionally energized disinformation. Leftists have been fantasizing publicly about murdering Trump for some time now. However, these “theories” on how Biden could respond to the Supreme Court are not simple hypotheticals for the sake of argument, there is an element of desperation and bloodlust.
The howls from the left were loud and shrill overnight across social media. The critical matter is that such howling for assassination tends to trigger actions by leftists to go out and do the deed - since their base values (conservatives don’t deserve to live) are validated by these leftists leaders and influencers .
I’ve said this many times, as the desperation level rises in the left, the chances for the unthinkable rise exponentially. Such an assassination attempt could likely pull the restraint totally away from elements on the right.
***
Next week DC is hosting the 2024 NATO Summit - expect levels of protests to increase accordingly .
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
A startling new report has revealed that an ISIS-affiliated smuggling network was able to slip over 400 individuals through the U.S. southern border on the Biden administration’s watch, with the location of more than 50 of them currently unknown. Experts say the administration’s open border policies are vastly increasing the likelihood of a major terrorist attack occurring on U.S. soil.
Three U.S. officials told NBC News that 150 of the individuals have been arrested, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is currently attempting to locate the remaining persons. During an appearance on MSNBC on Wednesday, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas stated that “we have no evidence that they are individuals plotting to harm the United States. ... It’s very important to note that the safety and security of the American people is our highest priority. We screen and vet individuals at the time of encounter. If we learn of derogatory information, we take enforcement action.”
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=7049#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - This is a continuation of the warnings from last week. White washing the incident by Mayorkas. The simple fact that they smuggled here by ISIS - who doesn’t do charity work - is fact enough that the ultimate intent was to cause harm to the country.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
From the Louisiana Office of the Attorney General Liz Murrill
On Monday, July 1, U.S. Federal Judge James Cain Jr. of the Western District of Louisiana, issued a preliminary injunction in Louisiana’s favor for the State’s lawsuit against President Joe Biden and the United States Department of Energy over the unlawful decisions to ban new liquefied natural gas exports to non-free trade agreement countries.
Judge Cain’s order lifts the LNG export ban effective immediately.
In his ruling, Judge Cain said, “It appears that the DOE’s decision to halt the permit approval process for entities to export LNG to non-FTA countries is completely without reason or logic and is perhaps the epiphany of ideocracy.”
Judge Cain also asked attorneys for the federal government, “So why the change of the past normal practice? And why now?”
The decision by President Biden and his Department of Energy from back in January ignores the clear text of the Natural Gas Act and departs from decades of agency policy. Just six months ago, the Department of Energy even acknowledged, “There is no factual or legal basis” for halting approval of LNG exports.
Shortly after that announcement, Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill led a coalition of 16 states in filing the lawsuit to stop the ban.
The State of Louisiana was joined by the States of Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
OBSERVATION - I think this crashes against the recent USSC ruling permitting these kinds of laws for TX.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Donald Trump’s lawyers on Monday asked the New York judge who presided over his criminal trial to set aside his conviction and delay his sentencing, scheduled for next week.
The letter to Judge Juan M. Merchan cited the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling earlier Monday and asked the judge to delay Trump’s sentencing while he weighs the high court’s decision and how it could influence the New York case, according to the letter obtained by The Associated Press.
The lawyers argue that the Supreme Court’s decision confirmed a position the defense raised earlier in the case that prosecutors should have been precluded from introducing some evidence they said constituted official presidential acts, according to the letter.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/donald-trump-hush-money-supreme-court/2024/07/01/id/1170896/
OBSERVATION - The lawfare renewed since the USSC decisions. Merchan is the democrat’s great white hope for getting trump jailed before the elections (and convention). The question is is he willing to risk it all considering that the recent rulings and overall abuse of the justice system he’s done will come crashing down on him if he responds in a political manner.
***
Major Democrat donors are beginning to turn on Joe Biden‘s 2024 re-election campaign after the 81-year-old incumbent appeared cognitively impaired during last Thursday’s presidential debate with former President Donald J. Trump. Concerned that Biden will be unable to hold on to the White House, some donors are asking the campaign to refund their contributions so they can redirect the money to down-ballot races.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Team biden working fast to quell the rebellion in the party following the debate. Now Bloomberg reports that the Democratic National Committee is considering formally nominating Joe Biden as early as mid-July to ensure that the president is on November ballots, while helping to stamp out intra-party chatter of replacing him after last week’s poor debate performance.
Democrats had already planned to nominate Biden, 81, before the convention in order to ensure he appears on the ballot in Ohio, which had an Aug. 7 deadline for candidates to be certified.
A potential date for Biden’s nomination is July 21, when the Democratic convention’s credentials committee meets virtually, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity.
***
An orange faced biden gave a mumbling 5 minute address to the nation regarding the USSC decision on immunity. In it he attacked the USSC and its recent decisions. Quoting Sotomayor’s dissent he said “...with fear for our democracy, I dissent”, to which he added “so should the American people dissent, I dissent.”
Biden also read the “end of quote” prompt on the teleprompter again.
***
Illegal Immigration –
A law enabling Oklahoma officials to order illegal immigrants to leave the state was blocked on June 28 by a federal judge, who said the statute is likely unconstitutional.
Oklahoma House Bill 4156, signed into law in April by Gov. Kevin Stitt, allows state charges to be brought against illegal immigrants who are found in Oklahoma. It also requires those convicted to leave the state within 72 hours.
U.S. officials sued over the law before it took effect on July 1, arguing that it violated the U.S. Constitution by adopting a state-based immigration system that clashes with the federal system.
***
Good news from the border. Well, kinda. According to FNC’s Bill Melugin, both Republicans and Democrats can claim positive talking points.
Melugin’s CBP sources say that in the month of June, 87,670 illegal aliens were apprehended at the southern border. That is the lowest number in over three years. Previously, the lowest number was 75,316 in January 2021.
It’s important to note that these numbers do not include the roughly 60,900 migrants encountered at ports of entry in June. That is mostly due to the use of the CBP One app. Most all of them were released into the United States.
This number also does not include up to 30,000 illegal aliens per month paroled into the United States via the controversial Biden mass parole program, CHNV. The Biden administration flies them directly into the U.S.
The Biden administration admits about 70,000 to 80,000 migrants into the United States every single month through both programs. The programs allow migrants to come into the U.S. lawfully with 2-year humanitarian parole grants. This prevents them from crossing the border illegally. Smoke and mirrors, my friends, smoke and mirrors.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine launched more drone attacks with some hitting the Kursk area, reportedly near military unit and military warehouses, resulting in a big fire.
Russia forces continue to press the Pivdenne region, south of Chasiv Yar.
Outlook —
Very little change in current situation. Russia continues to take large losses with very little to show for it.
I am getting the impression that Ukraine will be making another move to take out the Kersch Bridge soon, given the amount of targeting of ADA sites in Crimea.
Belarus -
Still a lot of rumblings of Ukraine build up on the Belarus border.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF orders evacuation of Khan Younis.
- US and other countries continue to warn citizens to leave Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the Israel Defense Forces is on the verge of destroying Hamas’ terror army, a key goal of the nearly nine-month-old war.
“I returned yesterday from a visit to the Gaza Division. I saw very considerable achievements in the fighting being carried [out] in Rafah. We are advancing to the end of the stage of eliminating the Hamas terrorist army; we will continue striking its remnants,” said Netanyahu during a meeting with Israel National Defense College cadets.
“I was very impressed by the achievements above ground and below ground, and by the commanders’ fighting spirit. With this spirit we will achieve our objectives: Returning our hostages, eliminating Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, ensuring that Gaza will not constitute a threat and also returning our residents securely to their homes in both the south and the north,” added the premier.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/benjamin-netanyahu-idf-hamas/2024/07/02/id/1170916/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli army ordered a mass evacuation of Palestinians from much of Khan Younis on Monday, a sign that troops are likely to launch a new ground assault in the Gaza Strip’s second largest city.
The order suggested that Khan Younis will be the latest target of Israel’s raids into parts of Gaza it had previously invaded in the war, as it pursues regrouping Hamas militants. Much of Khan Younis was destroyed in a long assault earlier this year, but large numbers of Palestinians have moved back in to escape another Israeli offensive in Gaza’s southernmost city, Rafah.
The Israeli military says the 99th Division destroyed a kilometer-long tunnel, killed approximately 100 militants and killed and more than 100 terrorist structures in the central Gaza Strip
Included was the destruction of a large bunker/tunnel complex used by PIJ to construct rockets.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lufthansa Group has halted nighttime flights to and from Beirut from June 29 up to and including July 31 due to the “current developments” in the Middle East, a spokesperson said on Monday. (Reuters)
US Embassy in Beirut has issued a new travel advisory warning American citizens to stay away from Lebanon. “We remind US citizens to strongly reconsider travel to Lebanon,” said the fresh notice which follows prior similar alerts. It warned in particular about travel to the south of Lebanon and in border areas with Syria, and to also avoid refugee settlements.
In the event of a “sudden outbreaks of violence and armed conflict” the Lebanese government nor the US Embassy can ensure US citizens’ safety, the notice warned further. Some European countries have issued similar alerts, with the Netherlands and Germany being the latest to warn their nationals to evacuate the country.
But the Pentagon clearly believes a big escalation is imminent, and has moved assets off the coast in preparation for a potential emergency evacuation of Americans in the event of all-out war:
The Pentagon is moving U.S. military assets closer to Israel and Lebanon to be ready to evacuate Americans as fighting between Israel and Hezbollah intensifies, according to three U.S. defense officials and a former U.S. official familiar with the plans.
The USS Wasp, an amphibious assault ship, and Marines from the 24th Expeditionary Unit, which is special operations capable, moved into the Mediterranean on Wednesday to join the dock landing ship USS Oak Hill and another ship in their amphibious ready group, according to the Marine Corps. The Wasp will operate in the eastern Mediterranean to be ready for a Military Assisted Departure and other missions, the officials said.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Police stormed downtown Jericho.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
A senior Egyptian official on Monday denied reports in the media on an Egyptian agreement to move the Rafah crossing from its current location or to build a new crossing near Kerem Shalom.
The official stressed that Egypt is not discussing the possibility of Israel supervising the Rafah crossing, and it is still adhering to its position that the IDF must withdraw fully from the Palestinian Arab side of the Rafah crossing.
Since the seizure of the Rafah crossing, Egypt has expressed opposition to opening the crossing as long as the IDF troops control it, and has placed full responsibility on Israel for the worsening of the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip due to the closure of the crossing.
Egypt claims that it continues to work to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, but refuses to allow many trucks located on the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing to enter the Gaza Strip as long as the IDF controls the Rafah crossing.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/392406
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel is cycling into another move of Khan Younis and surrounding. Again, this is a tactic they ‘ve been using - create a pocket to allow Hamas et al to try to reform, then collapse that pocket. In doing so they eliminate a lot of terrorists as well as expose underground tunnels that they may have missed on the previous passes.
Indicators continue to point to Israel acting against Hezbollah as early as August. There is an outside chance that Hezbollah may attempt to launch a spoiling attack before then to disrupt Israeli buildup and operation plans.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane Beryl has reached Cat 5 levels - the earliest to do so on record. There is a very, very slight chance it could deflect north along the mexican coast line to the US, but chances are slim it will follow that path.
Is this accurate? Did Representative Zoe Lofgren really call for military action against Supreme Court Justices?
Isn't this an arrestable terroristic threat?
It’s from her “X” account
https://www.facebook.com/groups/26012226159/permalink/10159887332946160/?mibextid=RtaFA8
Sentencing delayed to September 18th per above article.
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