Globalism / Great Reset –
Managed retreat, also known as planned retreat, is a strategy for responding to climate change and rising sea levels by relocating people and assets out of harm’s way. It is a process where communities, buildings, and infrastructure are gradually evacuated from areas designated as uninhabitable or dangerous due to changing geology, extreme weather, or climate change.
In Australia, this concept is gaining traction as a necessary measure to mitigate the impacts of climate change, particularly in coastal communities. In New Zealand, managed retreat is becoming a necessary adaptation strategy to address the impacts of climate change.
That’s the official narrative.
Meanwhile, in New Zealand, residents are up in arms about attempts to impose “retreat” from coastal areas under the pretext of a predicted rise in sea levels.
As this media report shows, they are not buying the scaremongering climate propaganda.
Tim Rees said. “I’ve lived by Paraparaumu Beach since 1965 and the beach is actually getting bigger. For 45 years I’ve dived off Kāpiti Island and the rocks are still at the same height at low tide”.
Added Tania Lees: “The science isn’t settled and there is no consensus. We don’t believe the sea levels are rising significantly and [that] we will all be flooded.” Central and local government couldn’t fund “a process on this scale”, she said. “So far, the ratepayers have paid in excess of $4 million for the Takutai Kāpiti process. “We simply can’t afford to spend more. If implemented, managed retreat would be in excess of $1 billion.”
https://expose-news.com/2024/06/29/managed-retreat-is-a-scam-to-take-peoples-homes/
OBSERVATION - Australia and New Zealand have continued to be beta-testing sites for global reset agenda items. this is just the latest in their progressive move towards greater totalitarian.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
In its final estimates for the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised all measures of income and corporate profits downward, according to a report released by the BEA on Thursday.
Thursday’s report details the third, and final, set of revisions to data comparing the first quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2023, in terms of seasonally adjusted annual rate of change. Across the board, measures of personal, corporate and national income growth were revised downward.
Compared to the previous quarter, the first quarter increase in real gross domestic income (GDI), was revised down 0.2 percentage points, from 1.5 percent to 1.3 percent. GDI is the total income that all sectors of an economy generate, including wages, profits, and taxes.
In terms of personal income, the income that is received by persons from all sources, the final picture for the first quarter is less sunny than BEA previously reported:
Current-dollar personal income was revised down $7.7 billion to a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of $396.8 billion in the first quarter.
Disposable personal income growth was revised down by a seasonally adjusted annualized $26.6 billion to $240.2 billion in the first quarter.
Real disposable personal income increased 1.3 percent, a downward revision of 0.6 percentage points.
Likewise, the first quarter profit picture for corporations is grimmer than the BEA previously reported:
Friday’s final report also notes that the nation’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024, an upward revision of 0.1 points from the previous estimate of 1.3 percent.
Even at 1.4 percent, the growth in GDP was the slowest quarterly increase in the last seven quarters.
OBSERVATION - These numbers reflect the pocket book impacts on american perceptions regarding the economy. They do not bode well for any claim of bidenomics ‘success’
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 27 recommended forthcoming COVID-19 vaccines for virtually all Americans.
“CDC recommends everyone ages 6 months and older receive an updated 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine to protect against the potentially serious outcomes of COVID-19 this fall and winter whether or not they have ever previously been vaccinated with a COVID-19 vaccine,” the agency said in a statement.
The COVID-19 vaccines now available, which are also broadly recommended, target the XBB.1.5 strain. But observational data indicate they provide short-lived protection against COVID-19 infection and hospitalization.
OBSERVATION - Unfreeking believeable they are still pushing the jab when all the data shows it is worthless and in fact is more dangerous than wuhan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
One of the aftershocks from the biden debate debacle is the growing sense that democrats will not retain power in the Senate and lose seats in the House. The president candidate fight is sucking the oxygen from their ability to fight for congress and are rallying the forces to prevent a total melt down of the party over biden.
A deadline is fast approaching in that in a matter of a few weeks the democrats will not be able to remove biden from the ballots in several key battleground state, severely threatening to cause the loss of those states to trump.
Biden / Harris Watch –
There seems to be an ominous lull in the massive fallout following Thursday’s debate. The DNC organization is facing a difficult choice and internal wars are ongoing. They have the choice to maintain pressure on biden in order to force him to step-down on his own (preferred option). Their alternative being forcing the issue, even to the extent of a 25th amendment option.
biden is reportedly huddled with family at Camp David to discuss their path forward. Unconfirmed reports that jill biden is calling most of the shots and is demanding the DNC cough up $2 billion for a presidential library, immunity from prosecution for the WHOLE family and a $200 million dollar book deal. She’s left very little room for negotiations. Adding to that leverage are the reports that biden will hold onto campaign contributions and not turn them over to the DNC or any replacement candidate.
VP Harris, duly miffed that she has been left out of the post-biden discussions is being encouraged to execute the 25th amendment option - so that she can be president, if but for a few months, and potentially grab the rights as the next nominee. She is facing a slick, behind the curtain effort by the used car salesman newscum for that slot.
Support for biden continues to erode, with another MSM flagship news paper - the Atlanta Journal-Constitution coming forward with a front-page editorial Saturday asking Biden to pass the torch to another, more competent candidate, following the lead of The New York Times. “The unfortunate truth is that Biden should withdraw from the race, for the good of the nation he has served so admirably for half a century,” the AJC Editorial Board wrote.
Big democrat donors are joining the pressure, some outright announcing the stoppage of support.
The implications of the struggle between biden supporters and the DNC are huge. The debate totally removed any covering biden’s mental state had and exposed it to the whole world. So far post debate polls have been scarce but indicators are his numbers have crashed like the Hindenburg. Along with it any credibility of those elements that have over the past couple years continually pushed the narrative that though old, biden was still as sharp as a tack.
The potential of a switch in candidates this late in the game threatens to throw the party into chaos. They really don’t have anyone at this point that could challenge trump because of how they clung to biden’s coattails over the past few years.
One team that has been put out there is a newscum / whitmer (gov Michigan) team - a far leftist duo that will likely cause more moderate democrats to split or just not turn out.
democrats face another problem. The bylaws of the DNC do explicitly mention that the DNC’s powers include filling a vacancy on the national ticket; such a vacancy is to be filled by “voting … in accord with procedural rules adopted by the Rules and Bylaws Committee and approved by the Democratic National Committee.”
That word is key: vacancy. As long as Biden is around and running, no such vacancy exists. Changing this process means changing the party rules. And that means going to the committee named above: the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee.
Guess who fills many of these positions - biden supporters.
Bottom line is that at this stage, it appears that the biden campaign won’t cooperate with any transition effort and will not only keep all the money, but fight this process every step of the way, taking the 2024 race hostage. If Dems try to replace Biden, Team Biden will make sure that whoever they replace him with loses.
One more thing to add. Biden is only fully functional from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., according to a report by Axios published Saturday in the wake of Biden’s disastrous not-ready-for-primetime debate with President Trump Thursday night. The report states White House staff know there are ‘two Bidens’: One who is fully engaged for about six hours a day and the one Americans (and the world) saw staring into space and struggling to articulate lucid, complete thoughts during the debate Thursday night.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
In a follow up to yesterday’s note on Russian personnel losses, US officials are stating that “But despite its losses, Russia is recruiting 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers a month — roughly as many as are exiting the battlefield”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70 - 80s and fair.
RUMINT – So far unconfirmed but F16 might have flown its first combat mission yesterday in Ukrainian airspace.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 36 drones overnight. Ukraine drones did manage to hit some of their targets - explosions were reported in Lipetsk overnight
Large Russian ground assault in the Ocheretyne area as well as further north in the Pivnichne region.
Russian ministry of defense claimed full occupation of Spirne village in Donetsk region of Ukraine
Ukraine forces have pushed back Russian forces in the Kharkiv region as well as some areas around Chaziv Yar. In the Vovchans`k direction (Kharkiv front) Ukrainian forces continue to have success. One of the more important things of the situation here, is Ukrainian aircraft are operating more freely with the destruction of most Russian air defenses in the area.
Outlook —
Ukraine is gaining advantaged in the Kharkiv front to the extent that Ukraine fixed wing ground attack aircraft are operating with little to no threat due to the targeted decimation of Russian ADA elements.
Elsewhere on the ground, the standard grind of battle, with no evidence of any pending Russian breakthrough and growing indicators that Ukraine is retaking ground.
Europe / NATO General –
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who is known to be sympathetic toward Israel, has been nominated to replace Joseph Borrell as the next European Union foreign minister. Kallas, who has yet to be formally appointed, belongs to the liberal European political camp. She supports the two-state solution but, at the same time, has expressed strong support for Israel.
***
France is voting in a parliamentary election that could make history, with the far right closer to power than it has ever been in modern times.
The National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella is well ahead in the polls - three weeks to the day since they won European elections. President Emmanuel Macron reacted immediately by calling a national vote and stunning his country.
A high turnout is expected among 49 million voters for such a pivotal election and polls close in the big cities at 20:00 (18:00GMT), when the first exit polls come out.
This is a two-round election, and most of the National Assembly’s 577 seats will not be decided until the second-round run-off vote next Sunday.
Marine Le Pen declares there will be mass deportations if her party wins the upcoming French election.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Significant show of force over Lebanon by IDF assets.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Saturday that Iran’s message of an “obliterating war” made it worthy of destruction
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) Pre-Trial Chamber I decided on Thursday to delay its decision on whether to allow ICC prosecutor Karim Khan to issue arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes.
***
Hamas says its leader, Haniyeh, discussed by telephone with the head of Egyptian intelligence on ceasefire negotiations in Gaza from his palace in Qatar.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting in the Gaza City and Rafah areas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah publicly thanked Iran for its support of Lebanon on Saturday.
Hezbollah’s leader thanked Iran following the Islamic Republic’s envoy to the UN addressing Friday night’s tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, and after he posted on his official X, formerly Twitter, account that, “if Israel expands its activities in Lebanon, a war of annihilation will ensue.”
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati addressed the tensions, stating, “The threats facing Lebanon are a form of psychological warfare. We are at war, and there are many casualties and destroyed villages due to Israeli aggression. The intensity of psychological warfare is escalating, but I believe we will overcome this phase to achieve a semblance of stability at the borders.”
IAF launched a display of force operation over S Lebanon and Beruit. Residents in Beruit reported sonic booms.
Saudi Arabia urges its citizens to leave Lebanon immediately.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Explosion heard in the Damascus area from a suspected IAF strike.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Very high number of Israeli security operations throughout the West Bank overnight.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Arab League removed Hezbollah from the list of terrorist organizations.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Continued pockets of intense fighting as IDF locates and liquidates Hamas elements trying to reform.
Growing reports of Hamas / clan warfare as each tries to establish control for a post war leadership in Gaza.
Israel continues to prepare for war with Hezbollah and yesterday’s IAF demonstrations are designed to war the govt of Lebanon the dangers of not confronting Hezbollah causing the fight to eventually spread to other areas of Lebanon. Still see the opening of an offensive window being some time in August at the earliest.
Iran –
Masoud Pezeshkian, who is the sole reformist running in Friday’s election, made the comments to journalists after voting, according to The Associated Press.
Responding to a question from a journalist about how Iran would manage international relations if he were president, Pezeshkian replied, “God willing, we will try to have friendly relations with all countries except Israel.”
His anti-Israel comments are not surprising, as both moderates and hardliners have long been critical of Israel.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/392286
OBSERVATION - The big question is how quickly either candidate can organize a response to any war in S Lebanon and to what extent Iran will be able to support Hezbollah.
Syria -
Russian Ministry of Defense - on June 29, from 11:00 to 11:05, over the village of Es-Sukhneh, Homs province, at altitudes from 7.5 thousand to 8.5 thousand meters, there was once again a dangerous approach of the MQ-9 “Reaper” unmanned aerial vehicle “coalition” with the Su-35 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces
OBSERVATION - Russia building the case for a shoot down. May see a shoot down over Syria more defendable than shooting down the Black Sea drone clearly operating in international airspace.
Misc of Note –
Beryl, the first named hurricane of the season, is due to make landfall on a number of Caribbean islands late on Sunday.
The major storm is growing in strength as it moves across the Atlantic Ocean towards the Caribbean islands of Barbados, Dominica, Grenada and Martinique, among others.
Forecasters say that Hurricane Beryl, which formed Friday night, has the potential to grow into a Category 3 storm as it moves from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days.
They predict that by the time the storm reaches the Windward Islands - made up of Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada - there will be “hurricane-force” winds, a “life-threatening” storm surge and heavy rainfall.
OBSERVATION - The current track has this hurricane tracking almost due west and straight into southern Mexico.
XBB 1.5 strain to hurricane Beryl including info in between. Thanks Godzilla.
Added Tania Lees: “The science isn’t settled and there is no consensus. We don’t believe the sea levels are rising significantly and [that] we will all be flooded.” Central and local government couldn’t fund “a process on this scale”, she said.
Liberal alarmists want us to believe water on one side of a coffee cup can be higher than on the other side.... And they use that lie to push totalitarian solutions to a problem that at best is minor. Also, while we're obsessing about 'warming' we might be missing things that are really happening.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Ireland’s new Hate Speech Bill offers no clear definition of what “hate” entails. Experts warn this could pave the way for the criminal prosecution of a wide range of expression considered unfavourable by authorities…“The world is watching Ireland. The censorial ‘hate speech bill’, if passed, would not only shut down conversation nationally – as the home of various international social media headquarters, it would have a global impact on what we can all discuss online.”
https://expose-news.com/2024/06/30/irelands-hate-speech-bill-will-have-a-global-impact/
OBSERVATION - Concern growing that laws like this can spill over into the rest of the internet and contaminate open discussions there. This reflects the overall goal of globalist to outlaw any speech that goes against their narrative.
In another example of politicians using judges to suppress free speech, Justice Alexandre de Moraes of Brazil has once again set his sights on trying to censor content on X globally.
He gave them 2 hours to delete posts criticizing a Brazilian politician or face a daily fine of 100,000 real ($18,000 USD).
Despite X complying in good faith by withholding the posts in Brazil, he issued a fine of 700,000 real ($126,000 USD), which he claimed was 100,000 real for each of the 7 posts he wanted deleted.
X paid the original 100,000 real fine and is appealing the order, citing “a clear denial of due process.”
NOTE - what can’t be accomplished presently by a singular, global element, is being nibbled away at by individual, leftist govts.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
NOTE - I mis-dated the Netanyahu speech to this month.
***
Pro-hamas protestors upset a number of LGBT parades over the week end.
These islamic elements are beginning to cast aside the activist elements of LGBT as the movement to force islamic principles and govt on the US grows. Casting away the useful idiots - not surprising as they have fulfilled their initial purpose of pulling larger crowds together. I suspect that the level of violence towards LGBT from islamaphiles may grow over the coming months.
***
There are some rumored attempts at leftists to organize protests on the 4th. Observers / OSINT elements are noting a lack of enthusiasm for an national event on social media. Some level of protests can be expected in the common areas such as Portland, etc.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
U.S. military bases in Europe were put on a heightened state of alert over the weekend as installations urged vigilance among their members. At U.S. European Command headquarters in Stuttgart, the Army garrison on Sunday issued a community wide alert that the force protection threat level was elevated to condition “Charlie” until further notice. Similar directives were sent to other bases in Germany, including the Army’s Rheinland-Pfalz and Ramstein Air Base, which together form the largest U.S. military community overseas. The Rheinland-Pfalz garrison alert includes Baumholder and outlying installations in Romania and Bulgaria. Aviano Air Base in Italy also rose its condition level to Charlie, and other installations in Italy introduced enhanced security measures. The Charlie threat level “applies when an incident occurs or intelligence is received indicating some form of terrorist action or targeting against personnel or facilities is likely,” according to the Army’s website.
OBSERVATION (H/T Oorang) - There have been growing concerns of terrorism across much of Europe over the past couple months. Some RUMINT that the threat source may be ISIS who’s been active in Russia over the past year.
***
Special reminder now that we are in the 4th of July celebration week. Because of the high visibility of the holiday and associated concentrations of people, conditions are ripe for some kind of terror strike - from lone wolf to a larger, organized action. There are a substantial number of known and suspected individuals from terrorist states here that have crossed the border illegally.
Enjoy the holiday, but keep your heads on a swivel.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Finland plans to offer preemptive bird flu vaccination as soon as next week to some workers with exposure to animals. They are going to administer these shots before any pandemic, epidemic or public health emergency has even been declared and without any evidence, this has even mutated to infect human beings.
OBSERVATION - Panic, panic, panic. IIRC, such actions historically have been bad news for humanity as it permits the sudden mutation of the virus.
***
A recent study using CDC data has uncovered a worrying trend: a significant increase in deaths from neurological diseases among young adults aged 15-44 in the United States. The study, conducted by Phinance Technologies, highlights a sharp rise in deaths where neurological conditions were either the primary cause or a contributing factor, especially from 2020 onwards.
https://greatgameindia.com/breaking-covid-19-vaccines-linked-to-rise-in-neurological-deaths-study/
OBSERVATION - Not familiar with the author of this report - as to the respectability of this ‘report’. However, it does track with other reports of neurological issues associated with the jab.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is expected to release their decision on former President Trump’s executive immunity claims at 10 AM EST this morning.
***
Aftershocks continue to roll through the political sphere from last Thursday’s debate. MSM and some appear to have drawn back from over expressions of support for biden. Others, like pelosi have gone full monty gaslighting claiming the it was Trump who actually displayed mental degenerations.
Needless to say, the biden saga has sucked a lot of air out of democrat house and senate races, as those who’ve hitched their wagon to biden and now trying to softly disengage themselves. Here is a rare example of national politics hitting hard on what are essentially local races.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Results of the biden confab at Camp David are leaking out and it appears that they have decided to support the continuation of his run for president. The decision was not without a great deal of converse. biden’s sister Valerie reportedly accused Jill of ‘elder abuse’ and that biden can no longer cognitively make decisions for himself.
Not surprisingly, the greatest advocate of continuing the campaign is the on that is facing the most current legal challenges - Hunter. He teamed up with Jill to push the continuation of the campaign. Without the cover of the president, hunter is hanging out to dry and facing multiple other charges - currently held at bay by his association with his father.
Another result is that the “family” have targeted biden’s top advisors, putting the blame on them for Biden’s poor performance at the debate They reportedly demanding Joe fire or demote his top campaign staffers.
Growing storm of public opinion post debate may cause the ‘family’ to reconsider. An alarming 72% of Americans say biden is not only mentally and cognitively unfit to be president but he also should not run for reelection, an eye-opening poll result released Sunday found after Thursday night’s debate.
Biden does not have the “mental and cognitive health to serve as president,” according to 72% of Americans in the CBS News/You Gov poll out Sunday.
While this total is alarming, it only expands on the majority of Americans who already saw it. This 72% is 7 points higher than three weeks ago, when it was still a 65% majority of Americans who see it the way Donald Trump, his campaign, and conservative media have seen it for years.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/cognition-unfit-president/2024/06/30/id/1170723/
OBSERVATION - The democrat crisis is not over, not by a long shot. The question now becomes how badly are the democrats willing to allow themselves to be blown away at the ballot box and how many seats lost in Congress. The DNC, though putting on the face of support, is actively allowing the negative reporting via MSM on biden’s decayed cognitive abilities to persist and grow, like the latest being his shortened hours of having any kind of mental functioning. With biden as president - even as a vegetable - the ‘family ‘ will continue to rake in $$$$ and other power perks. 4 more years would provide cover from DOJ actions to curtail their crimes.
The easy out for the democrats - biden ‘voluntarily’ stepping down - is currently denied. This leaves only a few other alternative means of removal, more potentially damaging to party unity. One being the 25th amendment route, with another being an ‘open’ convention where he could be replaced.
A name rising on the list of replacements is Michigan gov Whitmer, the wicked witch of the north. In addition to Whitmer, others under consideration include.Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and even California Governor Newsom. Major problem is they (including newscum) are not well known outside of their state - creating a huge PR campaign with a very short window before the elections. Second, many key swing states will have locked in their ballots - so removing biden will not be an option in as many as three of them, if I understand the democrat concerns correctly.
At this stage, biden will be the nominee unless something further happens either directly due to his mental/physical condition or elements within the party decide to act in a more aggressive manner.
China –
China is attempting to clone a SpaceX Falcom booster rocket. They had a major set back yesterday as an engine test failed spectacularly. China’s quality and technology have come a long way, but will need to make a substantial jump to match what SpaceX has been doing for the past four years.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Some Russian commentators are calling for a demonstration nuclear detonation as a means to escalate Russia pressure on NATO for supplying longer range and more lethal munitions to Ukraine. Some of this propaganda may well also to be to warn off US allowing Ukraine to us ATACMS to strike key airbases 200 km from the border. These airbases contain the bulk of Russian aircraft being used in the war.
Kerch Bridge update –
Overnight Ukraine targeted Russia ADA sites established to protect the bridge. Numerous explosions and large fires reported by locals, suggesting the strikes were successful.
Logistics –
Rumors that Russia is beginning to dig mothballed BTR-70s and bring them into service. These APC are notorious for being called death traps by Russian soldiers, in part due to the small escape door located between the middle two wheels as well as having two gasoline engines and gasoline tanks in vulnerable locations. Additionally, armor on these vehicles is very easily penetrated by machine guns.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Big fire after and explosion in Nova Kakhovka at occupied part of Kherson region following a Ukrainian missile strike
Russian missile struck Dnipro city. Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Stepova Novoselivka village of Kharkiv region of Ukraine and Novopokrovske village of Donetsk region.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims it shot down 36 drones in the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions overnight.
Reports overnight that Ukraine struck a key air defense position near the Kerch Bridge, temporally closing the bridge.
Ukraine continues to take ground in fighting around Hlyboke and Vovchansk, Kharkiv region
Russian Territory –
Residents of the Belgorod region are complaining about massive power outages. There is no electricity throughout the entire region: in Belgorod and its suburbs, in the Belgorod, Valuysky, Shebekinsky districts, the city of Stary Oskol and other settlements, local Telegram channels write. The channels, citing power engineers, report that there will be no electricity until 13:00 Moscow time. The cause of the accident is not specified.
NOTE - blackout occurred at the same time Ukraine launched a drone attack on the region.
Outlook —
In some key battlefield areas the tide of battle has shifted into Ukraine’s favor and they are regaining ground lost to Russia over the past several months. The Russian spring offensive has drained them of a lot of men and more so, key equipment like tanks, APCs and artillery. The Ukraine UAV attacks are relentless and in some ways more effective than artillery.
Russian forces are increasing attempting what some are calling “Mad Max” assaults, where Russia troops are mounted on motorcycles and ATVs in a mad dash towards jumping off locations for ground assaults. Needless to say, these assaults come with high casualties for Russian forces.
Increasingly, Russian sources / milbloggers are reporting of substantially low morale as units have been decimated to just a few survivors - and Russian commanders force them into more ‘meat assaults”.
No word on the rumored first tactical use of F16s by Ukraine.
A bigger thing to watch is if Ukraine gets the OK to attack Russian airbases outside the 100 mile limit set by the US. Expansion of the area of engagement will further twist the tails of Kremlin planners. Ukraine has developed other missiles capable of striking these bases needing no US approval, but the ATACMS systems are very efficient and virtually unstoppable by Russian ADA assets. Casual Russian parking of these important combat aircraft - as documented by open source imagery , would make such a strike shooting ducks in a barrel.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO representatives have expressed concern over Russia’s actions in the NorthSea over the potential mining of critical Western infrastructure. Russian ships reportedly performed as many as a thousand suspicious maneuvers
***
Macron’s call for snap election have backfired on him in a big way. Yesterday France’s far right National Rally (RN) made big gains in the first round of the parliamentary election, winning 33.4% of the vote. The left wing coalition New Popular Front came second with 27.9%
Celebrating her party’s success, Marine Le Pen said “democracy has spoken” as she declared President Emmanuel Macron’s camp “practically wiped out” - his alliance came third with 20.7% of the vote
It is unclear if the RN will be able to garner enough support at the second round next Sunday to take full control of the National Assembly.
Voter turnout in Sunday’s poll soared - the highest in a parliamentary election since 1997
Almost immediately after results came out, thousands of leftists/antifa and muslim took to the streets, burning and looting businesses in Paris and other town. Many businesses quickly boarded up in anticipation of more rioting.
France may well be on the edge of a civil war over the next couple weeks.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting reported in the Gaza City, Khan Yunis and Rafah areas overnight
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Explosion heard in the Damascus area from a suspected IAF strike.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces arrested at least 16 Palestinians from the West Bank last night
——— FORECAST ————————-
Continued IDF operations which allow Hamas elements to regroup only to have them hit by IDF raids, artillery and air strikes to continue.
Israeli pressure on the official govt of Lebanon to continue in an effort to develop a split of some degree with Hezbollah will continue as well. This, combined with continued precision targeting of Hezbollah key leaders will keep the organization on its toes and degrade Hezbollah’s ability to plan and eventually to respond to future Israeli operations.
Finally, Iran works thru its election for a new president, disrupting its own preparations against Israel.
What is concerning is that Iran appears to be making the case for Israel’s war against Hezbollah to justify accelerating its nuclear program. Iran may be counting on the mental case biden has clearly shown the world that he is. But this is a two edged sword. Jumping forward towards a nuke and fearing no coherent US response may release Israel - seeing the same demential US president - to take matters into its own hands.
Turkey –
Israeli airline El Al reported that its Warsaw to Tel Aviv flight was not allowed to refuel at Turkey’s Antalya airport after making an emergency landing.
According to El Al’s statement, workers at the Antalya airport refused to refuel flight LY5102 before it could take off for Israel. Following the incident, the plane flew to Rhodes in Greece, where “it will refuel before taking off to Israel,” the airline said.
The plane was eventually allowed to take off to Rhodes, Greece to refuel before flying to Israel.
Turkish diplomatic sources confirmed that the plane was allowed to make an emergency landing for medical reasons.
After last year’s earthquake in Turkey , Israel sent the largest international rescue team, saving countless lives.
OBSERVATION - This act is an affront to civilized behavior.