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RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, NOVEMBER 27
The Institute for the Study of War ^ | November 27, 2022 | Grace Mappes and Frederick W. Kagan

Posted on 11/28/2022 9:11:32 AM PST by Timber Rattler

The Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in eastern Kherson Oblast, possibly threatening all of the critical ground lines of communications (GLOCs) from Crimea to the mainland. Russian forces have been digging trench lines and concentration areas in eastern Kherson since early October 2022 in obvious preparation for the withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River and Kherson City. Russian troops are preparing either to defend in depth or to conduct operational or strategic delay operations. Russian forces clearly do not expect to be able to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting across the river, nor are the Russians prioritizing defensive positions to stop such a crossing. The Russian military is setting conditions for a protracted defense in eastern Kherson Oblast that could allow the establishment of a solid Ukrainian lodgment on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The assessment that follows examines the Russian defensive laydown and evaluates the expectations for the flow of operations likely guiding that laydown exclusively.

(snip)

Russian defensive positions are optimized to defend against Ukrainian forces attempting to advance along GLOCs rather than driving cross-country as Ukrainian forces have previously done. Russian forces concentrated most of their defenses at multiple locations astride critical GLOCs, establishing only a handful in the open fields between the highways. However, Ukrainian forces have previously conducted long cross-country drives in Kharkiv Oblast to capitalize on their success in breaking through Russian defensive lines near Balakliya, enabling them to more quickly advance on and surround Russian strongpoints such as Kupyansk and Izyum and push Russian forces from the Siverskyi Donets River in Kharkiv Oblast to the international border in most of the oblast.

(Excerpt) Read more at understandingwar.org ...


TOPICS: Government; History; Military/Veterans
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To: cranked

You said Russia was going to defend. Why did they leave if Ukraine was a threat?

“As trains of Russian made pillboxes head to Kherson city proper and surrounding areas.
8 posted on 11/3/2022, 11:32:31 AM by cranked”


41 posted on 11/28/2022 11:44:36 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: cranked

Um, Russia left Kherson. Russia announced they did and Ukraine took over.

Are you saying Russia still holds Khereson? (with all those pillboxes)


42 posted on 11/28/2022 11:46:04 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince

“Interviewed by Spiegel, Merkel stated today she wasn’t surprised by Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine:

“It wasn’t a surprise. The Minsk agreements had been destroyed. After the meeting between Biden & Putin, I wanted to create a separate European format for talks with Putin.””
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1596194750620585984


43 posted on 11/28/2022 11:47:38 AM PST by cranked
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To: cranked

Why are you chaning the subject?

Are you claiming Russia still holds Khereson City?

If Ukraine military sucks, why did they withdraw? Wasnt this Russian territory now?


44 posted on 11/28/2022 11:50:28 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince

“If Ukraine military sucks...”

Speaks for itself.......

#SaveUkraineSendMoreTanks
#SaveUkraineSendMorePlanes
#SaveUkraineSendMoreAFVs
#SaveUkraineSendMoreArtillery
#SaveUkraineSendMoreMunitions
#SaveUkraineSendMoreHelicopters
#SaveUkraineGiveUsDamnPlanes!
#SaveUkraineSendMoreAirDefenses
#SaveUkraineSendMoreManpower
#SaveUkraineSendMoreBillions
#SaveUkraineSendMoreGenerator
#SaveUkraineSendMoreTransformers
#SaveUkraineSendMoreBlankets
#SaveUkraineCauseWeBroke
#SaveUkraineSendMoreCandles
#SaveUkraineSendMoreBatteries
#SaveUkraineSendMoreFlashlights
#SaveUkraineWillingToPayForMercs
#SaveUkraineSendAnything!!
#SaveUkraineSendEverything!!!


45 posted on 11/28/2022 11:51:55 AM PST by cranked
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To: FreshPrince

See, withdrawals are real....

“Some kilometers north #RussianArmy & #DPR forces entered in the town of Spirne/Спірне without resistance following the withdrawal of #UkrainianArmy.”
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1597293430518198274


46 posted on 11/28/2022 12:00:00 PM PST by cranked
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To: Timber Rattler

Mercs fighting for Ukraine just getting shat all over in the Donbass region...

“1,200 Polish soldiers dead and about 3 times that number injured in the SMO.”
https://twitter.com/Nikolai11449196/status/1597306195215536128


47 posted on 11/28/2022 12:03:21 PM PST by cranked
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To: cranked

Again,

You said Ukraines re-possession of Khereson was fake like the Ghost of Kiev.

Are you claiming Russia still holds it and is manning the concrete pillboxes in Khereson city?


48 posted on 11/28/2022 12:07:06 PM PST by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince

‘A Day at a Ukrainian field hospital’ and we ain’t talking tents...
https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1597282642910932992


49 posted on 11/28/2022 12:10:27 PM PST by cranked
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To: cranked

wont answer the question..

Unwilling to accept reality.

There a pillbox waiting for you in Kherson, get into it and defend the motherland!


50 posted on 11/28/2022 12:13:44 PM PST by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince

Questions are made to be answered?

When you get around to the past questions I have asked you and you not answered, let me know, kthx.


51 posted on 11/28/2022 12:14:42 PM PST by cranked
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To: cranked

You havent asked me squat.

You are under the delusion that Russia still occupies Kherson.


52 posted on 11/28/2022 12:18:22 PM PST by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince

Post history says otherwise......


53 posted on 11/28/2022 12:19:07 PM PST by cranked
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To: FreshPrince

“Jesus…Ukes breaking out 1941 model M101 105mm arty. Next up bringing back the BT-7”
https://twitter.com/TheHumanFund5/status/1597313225439469569


54 posted on 11/28/2022 12:20:13 PM PST by cranked
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To: cranked

Again your delusion about the status of Khereson City:

To: FreshPrince
“Ukraine holds the territory. Russia doesnt.”
The Ghost of Kyiv is real too.
Believe what you will.
11/28/2022, 2:43:14 PM by cranked

Seek help...


55 posted on 11/28/2022 12:22:00 PM PST by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince

Ukes hauling ass out of the area south of Artemovsk
https://twitter.com/TheHumanFund5/status/1597274176427282433

#UkraineStillWinning


56 posted on 11/28/2022 12:23:09 PM PST by cranked
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To: cranked

seek help


57 posted on 11/28/2022 12:25:24 PM PST by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince

The Dutch newspaper NRC published a report from a cemetery in Kryvyi Rih, where Ukrainian military personnel are buried. Local residents say that a separate field has recently been set aside exclusively for them, and it is already half full.
https://twitter.com/TobiAyodele/status/1596884993820590080

#UkraineWinning


58 posted on 11/28/2022 12:26:21 PM PST by cranked
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To: cranked

“Russia Readies Knock Out Blow in Donbass...”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-78WysP5EQ
81 posted on 8/1/2022, 12:27:32 PM by cranked


59 posted on 11/28/2022 12:36:29 PM PST by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince

“Life in the city has become a humanitarian hell since the return of Ukrainian militants. Unbearable conditions and hunger force local residents to leave Kherson as soon as possible. The video shows kilometer-long queues of”
https://twitter.com/dana916/status/1596677096360873984


60 posted on 11/28/2022 12:36:59 PM PST by cranked
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