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RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, NOVEMBER 27
The Institute for the Study of War ^ | November 27, 2022 | Grace Mappes and Frederick W. Kagan

Posted on 11/28/2022 9:11:32 AM PST by Timber Rattler

The Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in eastern Kherson Oblast, possibly threatening all of the critical ground lines of communications (GLOCs) from Crimea to the mainland. Russian forces have been digging trench lines and concentration areas in eastern Kherson since early October 2022 in obvious preparation for the withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River and Kherson City. Russian troops are preparing either to defend in depth or to conduct operational or strategic delay operations. Russian forces clearly do not expect to be able to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting across the river, nor are the Russians prioritizing defensive positions to stop such a crossing. The Russian military is setting conditions for a protracted defense in eastern Kherson Oblast that could allow the establishment of a solid Ukrainian lodgment on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The assessment that follows examines the Russian defensive laydown and evaluates the expectations for the flow of operations likely guiding that laydown exclusively.

(snip)

Russian defensive positions are optimized to defend against Ukrainian forces attempting to advance along GLOCs rather than driving cross-country as Ukrainian forces have previously done. Russian forces concentrated most of their defenses at multiple locations astride critical GLOCs, establishing only a handful in the open fields between the highways. However, Ukrainian forces have previously conducted long cross-country drives in Kharkiv Oblast to capitalize on their success in breaking through Russian defensive lines near Balakliya, enabling them to more quickly advance on and surround Russian strongpoints such as Kupyansk and Izyum and push Russian forces from the Siverskyi Donets River in Kharkiv Oblast to the international border in most of the oblast.

(Excerpt) Read more at understandingwar.org ...


TOPICS: Government; History; Military/Veterans
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To: circlecity

*sigh* ok...another predictions I have to catalog and force feed back. Fighting propagandists job never ends...


21 posted on 11/28/2022 11:06:53 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: circlecity
The Ukrainian counter offensive petered out after accomplishing very little.

LOL. the Ukrainians drove the Russians out of most of the territory they took in the spring of 2022 and destroyed huge amounts of Russian equipment and the people associated with it.

Is retreating and leaving equipment and dead soldiers behind a Russian tactic now?

22 posted on 11/28/2022 11:08:36 AM PST by freeandfreezing
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To: freeandfreezing

Yes its a feint!! LOL!

If these Ukrainian successes are “PR” offensives, I cant wait to see the real ones!


23 posted on 11/28/2022 11:10:13 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: circlecity
And Russia will take it all back and more in the Winter offensive.

First they have to figure out how to thaw out all the Russian conscripts who are freezing to death.

Video of Russian hypothermia victims

24 posted on 11/28/2022 11:11:50 AM PST by freeandfreezing
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To: FreshPrince

“Why?”

Won’t because the Ukies were pushing them out, that is for sure.......


25 posted on 11/28/2022 11:12:31 AM PST by cranked
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To: Its All Over Except ...

First of all, ISW does not make retarded “predictions” like the pro-Russian “analysts” and putards that are so fun to mock. For example from the ISW:

“This assessment makes no effort to determine whether Ukrainian forces intend to cross or are capable of crossing the Dnipro River in this region and offers no forecast about whether or not they will make any such attempt.”


26 posted on 11/28/2022 11:14:24 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: cranked

Yes the Ukes put the pressure on after cutting off the supply routes, forcing Russia to withdraw.

A brillant counter-offensive

Ukraine 1, Russia 0


27 posted on 11/28/2022 11:15:50 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: circlecity

Look up Kinburn spit/peninsula.

It’s the westernmost part of Crimea.

The Ukrainians are there. Technically they’ve already crossed the Dnieper River.


28 posted on 11/28/2022 11:18:40 AM PST by meatloaf
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To: FreshPrince

PR wins are nothing and they don’t win wars or conflicts.

Freshly created cemeteries in Ukraine filling up faster than tickets being sold to a Taylor Swift concert.

Ukies withdrawing from Kherson proper.

ZelenskyyIdiot still begging, pleading, and grifting.....you know, in all that #UkraineWinning.....

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#SaveUkraineWillingToPayForMercs
#SaveUkraineSendAnything!!
#SaveUkraineSendEverything!!!

#USHasHardlyAnymoreToSendSorryGrifter
#NATOHasHardlyAnymoreToSendSorryGrifter


29 posted on 11/28/2022 11:20:16 AM PST by cranked
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To: cranked

The Kinburn split controls the Black Sea area at the mouth of the Dnieper and Bug Rivers. It’s a strategic part of Crimea.

Neither the Ukrainians nor the Russians are talking about it except for the Ukrainians admitting they have troops there.


30 posted on 11/28/2022 11:23:02 AM PST by meatloaf
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To: cranked

“PR wins are nothing and they don’t win wars or conflicts.”

PR is what you call it.

Ukraine has taken back significant land from Russia. Land that Russia annexed.

Thats not “PR”....


31 posted on 11/28/2022 11:25:34 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: cranked

Russia will have to take back Kherson. It will cost russia lives and material. Wouldnt be the case if it was a PR offensive


32 posted on 11/28/2022 11:27:49 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince

In every encounter with the Russians in a straight up fight, the Ukies have never won....they may have stall-mated, but never won.

Ukrainian wins, PR wins, have come from Russians planned withdrawals, period.


33 posted on 11/28/2022 11:28:33 AM PST by cranked
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To: FreshPrince

“Russia will have to take back Kherson”

No they won’t.
More than one way to skin a cat bruh.


34 posted on 11/28/2022 11:29:08 AM PST by cranked
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To: cranked

So it will remain in Ukraine hands then. Ok...


35 posted on 11/28/2022 11:40:25 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince

Why they withdrawing then?


36 posted on 11/28/2022 11:40:52 AM PST by cranked
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To: cranked

Again,

Why withdraw if Ukraine cant force you out?


37 posted on 11/28/2022 11:40:56 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: cranked

Ukraine is ecavcuating civilians as the Russias are shelling them from the other side of the river.

Ukraine holds the territory. Russia doesnt.


38 posted on 11/28/2022 11:42:26 AM PST by FreshPrince
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To: FreshPrince

Research is your friend.


39 posted on 11/28/2022 11:42:33 AM PST by cranked
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To: FreshPrince

“Ukraine holds the territory. Russia doesnt.”

The Ghost of Kyiv is real too.
Believe what you will.


40 posted on 11/28/2022 11:43:14 AM PST by cranked
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