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Transitory Inflation Turning Into An Inflationary Spiral
Schiff Gold ^ | 7-13-2021 | Schiff Gold

Posted on 07/13/2021 11:47:48 AM PDT by blam

Consumer prices have been rising precipitously this year. If you annualize the Consumer Price Index through the first five months of 2021, you get a CPI increase of over 6%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to push the narrative that inflation is transitory, but not everybody buys into this storyline. On the Wolf Street Report, Financial Analyst Wolf Richter said Powell’s temporary inflation is turning into an “inflation spiral.” Richter said some measure of inflation will likely tick down in the months ahead, but to steal Powell’s term, the relief will be transitory and only serve to offer false hope before inflation starts rising again.

The first bout of inflation always looks temporary. But during those first bouts of inflation, that’s when the triggers of persistent inflation, namely the inflationary mindset and inflation expectations are being unleashed.”

The markets seem increasingly skeptical of Powell’s insistence that inflation is transitory. Last week, the IMF warned of a “sustained” inflation rise in the United States. Many people are starting to talk about the Fed tightening monetary policy sooner rather than later to fight rising prices and worry this could cause a slowdown in the economic recovery. But Peter Schiff says the markets are bracing for the wrong impact. The Fed won’t fight inflation because it can’t. There is no way to tighten monetary policy without collapsing the economy.

It’s not that inflation is going to turn out to be not transitory and therefore the Fed is going to fight it,” Schiff said. “It’s that inflation is not transitory and the Fed is not going to fight it. And because the Fed is not going to fight the non-transitory inflation, it’s actually going to end up getting much worse than people think.”

Regardless of what the Fed may or may not do in the future, the fiscal and monetary stimuli are still ongoing today. As Richter put it, “the government and the Fed still have their foot fully on the accelerator.”

Meanwhile, prices continue to rise throughout the economy, for all kinds of reasons. There are certainly supply chain issues as demand returns in the wake of the pandemic. There have been price increases due to shortages. Some commodity prices have spiked And of course, we also have artificial demand created by central bank and government stimulus. Richter said the bottom line is that prices are rising, and at this point, nobody is resisting the price increases.

So much cash has been created and handed out that price doesn’t even matter anymore. People are paying whatever, even for discretionary purchases that they don’t have to buy.”

As a result, we have price spikes cascading from product to product and service to service.

This surge of inflation is becoming engrained in the inflation expectations of company decision-makers and consumers alike. They’re adjusting to it and in this manner inflation becomes persistent.”

In a nutshell, the overall inflationary environment isn’t transitory, although some of the factors that unleashed the inflationary cascade might be transitory.

Richter says we’re looking at a generational change. People who became adults in the 1990s or later have never experienced this kind of inflation.

Even if the economy doesn’t move into hyperinflation, persistent rising prices will be extremely disruptive to the economy – whether the Fed reacts quickly or slowly.

This persistent inflation is what is being triggered right now by the fiscal and monetary stimulus and by the temporary inflation spikes. And the Fed, by putting that issue officially on ignore is making it far worse.”


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: inflation; inflationprediction; investing; shortages; transitory

1 posted on 07/13/2021 11:47:48 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Weimar America. Prove me wrong.


2 posted on 07/13/2021 11:49:52 AM PDT by DesertRhino (A coup government may not claim the protection of the same constitution it overthrew. )
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To: blam
One of the greatest economies ever, destroyed by wokester voters—layabouts and parasites, "working" part time as a barista at Starbucks. No skin in the game. Living from "stimulus" check to "stimulus" check.

3 posted on 07/13/2021 11:53:54 AM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie ("Success is 10 percent inspiration and 90 percent perspiration." — Thomas Edison)
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To: blam

xiden’s economy. Working hard to make it worse than carter’s.


4 posted on 07/13/2021 11:54:07 AM PDT by freedumb2003 (The democrats have just replaced KKK with CRT. /Kevin McCarty 7/6/21)
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To: blam

Keep printing Trillions out of thin air.

What could go wrong.


5 posted on 07/13/2021 11:54:30 AM PDT by lurk ( )
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To: Governor Dinwiddie

Destroyed by the Federal Reserve and the Congress of the United States, not some baristas. Baristas and welfare bums don’t print the dollars.


6 posted on 07/13/2021 11:58:14 AM PDT by Seruzawa (The political Left is the Garden of Eden of Incompetence - Marx the Smarter (Groucho))
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To: DesertRhino
I think it's the other way around.

DEFLATION is a much bigger threat to the U.S. today than anyone seems to realize.

Anemic population growth coupled with negative productivity growth is a recipe for disaster -- and it isn't inflation that I'm talking about.

7 posted on 07/13/2021 11:58:52 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("And once in a night I dreamed you were there; I canceled my flight from going nowhere.")
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To: blam

The Fed has been increasing the money supply at 38% per year. Guess where inflation is going to go?


8 posted on 07/13/2021 12:06:23 PM PDT by Nateman (If the Left is not screaming , you are doing it wrong.)
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To: Alberta's Child
DEFLATION is a much bigger threat to the U.S. today than anyone seems to realize.

I tend to agree with you. The issue is velocity of money.

The hyper-regulated US economy has made employees very expensive, and mechanization is picking up momentum which means a trend of much lower total employment of people.

A large part of consumer expenditures in a western economy are not for necessities.

Once the summer vacation season is over, watch out below....
9 posted on 07/13/2021 12:13:24 PM PDT by cgbg (A kleptocracy--if they can keep it. Think of it as the Cantillon Effect in action.)
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To: blam
The Fed won’t fight inflation because it can’t. There is no way to tighten monetary policy without collapsing the economy.

Money quote. We're in deep Kimshee.

10 posted on 07/13/2021 12:21:54 PM PDT by Obadiah
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To: Seruzawa
True. But those who voted for Biden are the folks with no skin in the game. For them, a regular "stimulus" is like hitting it big with scratch-off ticket. But you are entirely correct, the banksters and the Fed are the puppeteers.

11 posted on 07/13/2021 12:41:45 PM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie ("Success is 10 percent inspiration and 90 percent perspiration." — Thomas Edison)
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To: blam

“So much cash has been created and handed out that price doesn’t even matter anymore. People are paying whatever, even for discretionary purchases that they don’t have to buy.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Uh price matters to me and I have cut down on discretionary purchases...


12 posted on 07/13/2021 1:02:51 PM PDT by Freedom56v2 (If I wanted to live in China, I would move there!)
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To: DesertRhino

“Weimar America. Prove me wrong.”

No need. The future will do that.


13 posted on 07/13/2021 1:04:39 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods ( comment might be sarcasm, or not. It depends. Often I'm not sure either.)
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To: cgbg
Raging Inflation Sparks Bond Bloodbath, Slams Stocks As Dollar Spikes
14 posted on 07/13/2021 1:14:58 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

This inflation is not transitory and will lead to chaos.


15 posted on 07/13/2021 1:23:23 PM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: blam

“The first bout of inflation always looks temporary. “

To whom? Everyone knew exactly what was going to happen with the installation of Chomo Joe. Gasoline is now up over 1.50 per gallon where I am. Everything is way more expensive. I see “inflation jumped by 4.5%” or some such nonsense. Maybe if you don’t buy anything. For my standard or living, which is spartan at best, it’s easily 100% higher. Add to that the government pretty much shuttering my industry and YAY BIDEN!!! Most popular president EVER!!!


16 posted on 07/13/2021 1:42:50 PM PDT by Organic Panic (Democrats. Memories as short as Joe Biden's eyes.)
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