Posted on 01/02/2020 5:19:04 PM PST by Godzilla
Threat Matrix 2020
Established in 2001 after the 9/11 attack on America, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make founded decisions and actions.
FYI - this isn’t “my” thread, but I like to post here.
Going into this new year our country faces numerous challenges and threats both internally and externally. The matrix above is a tool to go through all the info out there to sort out the crap and find the gems. NOTE: There are an abundance of “fake” news sites as well as many pundits out there with the tinfoil wrapped a little too tightly around their heads. I recommend folks look deeper for confirmation of information.
I’ll post my own matrix soon as I digest what has happened and what can happen this year.
The probability the Democrats will nominate a crazy socialist for president or vice president is close to 100%.
I nominate all four members of “The Squad” for the threat matrix.
Take a break and our President makes good his promise of hitting Iran back for the embassy attack.
Things I’m monitoring for this year, probably morph with time. Feel free to chip in on what you see.
Priority 1.
1a - Iran. Huge potential for a regional war with US, Israel or (more likely) both.
1b - Election turmoil - Democrats/leftists have openly threatened violence in response to the president and other conservative/republicans. Still hanging are -
- Impeachment resolution
- Barr/Durham investigation of the deep state
- Black swans / red flags
1c - Israel vs Hamas/Hezzbollah - this may take off based on Iran or separately. Hamas is currently attempting to put the lid down on some of the protests to gain some concessions from Israel. But there are enough wild cards in the mix to cause concern.
Priority 2
2a - North Korea- Right now it seems Kim is resuming rhetoric and later strategic weapons testing. The high council meetings that just ended indicate there is still a window of potential negotiations available
2b - Virginia Gun Grab. Any laws passed will take effect in July UNLESS the legislature passes them with 80% of vote for a urgent matter. This will simmer, but has potential for Bundy Ranch scenarios.
2c - Hong Kong - Protests continue, but violence level has dropped significantly since their elections. I would expect China to play long game on this
2d - Mexico / illegals - The construction of the fence and enforcement of law has made an impact, how the narco-terrorists respond is to be seen
2e - Blue area meltdown - partially associated with 2020 elections, homelessness, budgets in the deep red, and continued travel down the cesspool of progressivism make things unstable.
Priority 3
3a - Middle east conflicts - these include Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Turkish involvement. Turkey may get a higher priority view depending upon their actions in Syria, Libya and Cyprus
3b - Natural disasters - can’t predict but there are some biggies on the horizon that can hit at any moment.
They fall under priority 1 election related observations.
Thanks. This is my first time on a threat matrix thread.
Iran/Iraq
Lots happening fast. Missile strike killed at least 5 senior Iranian military officers including:
Qassem Soleimani & Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis - Iranian Quds force
2nd in command of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Naim Qassem
US marines arrested Qais AlKhazali and Hadi AlAmry.
All key players involved in the embassy attack and iranian supported militias in Iraq.
US is warning all civilians to avoid Iraq and are warning that they expect more attacks. Esper in as statement said the US will conduct preemptive strikes as they see fit.
The Iraqi army and much of the govt is relatively neuteral.
welcome
Please add me to the ping list.
Will Homeland Security sue states over licensing of illegals...drivers and “matriculates” cards?
That’s where election fraud stars.
G
Thanks for the ping!
Glorious Victory Tonight!
DONE
Hadi al-Amiri was captured tonight by Marines
Iran
it is reported that Patriot batteries in Bahrain have been activated. Likely ALL patriot batteries in region activated.
Senator Graham threatens that the US would take out Iran’s oil production if they continue
Hard fast analysis/guesstimate.
There may be some localized attacks by Iranian backed milita against US interests in Iraq in the next day or so. A spokesman for Iraqi Hezbollah has reportedly announced, “We will soon target all U.S. bases in Iraq.” A more organized response will be delayed because of the magnitude of the decapitation strike. Iranian officers and militia leaders will be more covert in their movements. They were way too cocky and paid the price.
A more serious option is by Iran attacking in the Gulf. Ballistic missiles with naval attacks strong possibility. Additionally, attacks could be directed against US allies in the region. Soleimani was an extremely important leader in Iran and Iran is pushed up to the wall in regards to the level of response. They cannot ignore or under attack. Finally, it is reported that Iran’s national security council is currently meeting to address the issue.
US build up in the region growing. huge numbers of C17 cargo craft carrying 82D ABN units enroute still. Heavy lifters also departing from Ft Stewart GA. Looking for info to see if a second (or third) carrier group is enroute.
Israel
In related Israel closes Mt. Hermon ski resort to visitors in wake of U.S. strike.
A spokesman for Iraqi Hezbollah has reportedly announced, “We will soon target all U.S. bases in Iraq.”>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Looks like we need to help put the Sunni back into power in Iraq, and send the Shia back into the 12th imams well back in Iran.Saudi would pay to have that happen.
We as Westerners forget that Iran wants to use Iraq as a launching platform to retake Mecca. This is what motivates Iran to oust USA from Iraq.
Esper says they will conduct preemptive strikes as they see fit...
I’m ok with that!
The US bases in Iraq are the most likely front line target - certainly.
However, the loss of this much leadership is forcing Iran into a corner and there is an increasing potential for a much wider strike.
State department has called for all civilians to leave Iraq immediately. Meanwhile, US military forces continue to stream into the middle east. Many are staging in Kuwait before moving into Iraq. OSINT observers note extremely high levels of military aircraft activity supporting the airlift.
A number of middle eastern airlines have shut down flights to bagdad. Embassies of european nations at elevated alert stature.
Iranian options - still much speculation but here are some options
1. Milita attacks on US military and persons throughout the region. - currently highest possibility. Includes Yemeni ‘rebels’. Iran will want to hide behind these ‘militas’ for as long as possible.
2. Unconventional/asymmetrical attacks - cyber attacks and sabotage Terror attacks - it is pretty well known that Iran has operative cells throughout the west and the potential is high they may target US embassies or diplomats. Major cities ramping up alert levels though DHS states no specific threats have been identified.
3. Conventional military operations - first attacking shipping in the Gulf to seize up oil supplies. However, US and allied nations have a lot of combatants in the region already to protect shipping and would be costly to Iran.
- Ballastic missiles targeting naval and Saudi facilities. Failure to stand up to Iran after the refinery attack puts them as ‘weak’ in Iranian eyes and a potential target with low probability of punching back
- Israel - I don't think Iran and its forces (hezebollah) are ready to pokes that tiger yet as they have their hands full already.
The most serious concern is that Iran will go for all three at once. Iran has lost a lot of "face" in having a "hero" so easily taken out of the game after they though they had the US behind the 8 ball. They need something big to regain credability in the region Evaluation of the US response Very robust to say the least. Shows that Trump is taking Iranian threats very seriously. Troop deployments bolster Iraqi assets, airpower (and I'm pretty sure there is evidence of fast movers headed to the region - probably Saudi Arabia - and strategic bombers have a bigger stick to strike Iran proper. Again, still looking for evidence of additional carrier(s) heading to the region. I further think that our military will not not have its hands tied by oppressive "rules of engagement". That is apparent from the fact that we hit them at the 'bagdad airport.'
All signs suggest that a ground war against Iran is not immediately in the works. However, there are enough big stick items that can hit Iran that should strike fear into their black hearts. Other responses - there are reports that Iraqi's and Iranian protestors were celebrating the deaths. Not gonna see in main stream media any time soon, but videos and reports are getting out. Iran's condition - economy in shambles due to economic sanctions with very little reserve. The US actions may have emboldened Iraqi and Iranian protestors to be more aggressive in their actions. In Iraq, protestors have extra hate of iranian supported militias and should provide a wealth of targeting intelligence for US planners.
N Korea - Being overwhelmed by Iran. Basically the 'christmas present' was a bust. Decision made to proceed with a new strategic rocket (possibly solid fuel and MIRV) and outside chance of renewed nuclear tests. However, the door remained open for a diplomatic effort. Wondering what Kim is thinking as he watches US response to Iranian aggression.
Israel - Netanyahu has returned early from Greece to meet with his cabinet to monitor the situation in Iraq.
Thanks much for the ping, your post, and all of the posters on TM.
But be ALERT, there is increasing numbers of bogus reports floating out there.
Iran
US Embassies on Alert 🚨
• Iraq
• Bahrain
• Pakistan
• Lebanon
• UAE US placed brigade in Italy on alert to send to Lebanon if needed. The entire Division Ready Brigade, 82d ABN to deploy to Iraq/region. 3500 total
Israel has quietly upped its readiness. reports of missile systems (probably iron dome) near Tel Aviv. They have warned Hamas and PIJ not to participate in any Iranian response.
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