Take a break and our President makes good his promise of hitting Iran back for the embassy attack.
Things I’m monitoring for this year, probably morph with time. Feel free to chip in on what you see.
Priority 1.
1a - Iran. Huge potential for a regional war with US, Israel or (more likely) both.
1b - Election turmoil - Democrats/leftists have openly threatened violence in response to the president and other conservative/republicans. Still hanging are -
- Impeachment resolution
- Barr/Durham investigation of the deep state
- Black swans / red flags
1c - Israel vs Hamas/Hezzbollah - this may take off based on Iran or separately. Hamas is currently attempting to put the lid down on some of the protests to gain some concessions from Israel. But there are enough wild cards in the mix to cause concern.
Priority 2
2a - North Korea- Right now it seems Kim is resuming rhetoric and later strategic weapons testing. The high council meetings that just ended indicate there is still a window of potential negotiations available
2b - Virginia Gun Grab. Any laws passed will take effect in July UNLESS the legislature passes them with 80% of vote for a urgent matter. This will simmer, but has potential for Bundy Ranch scenarios.
2c - Hong Kong - Protests continue, but violence level has dropped significantly since their elections. I would expect China to play long game on this
2d - Mexico / illegals - The construction of the fence and enforcement of law has made an impact, how the narco-terrorists respond is to be seen
2e - Blue area meltdown - partially associated with 2020 elections, homelessness, budgets in the deep red, and continued travel down the cesspool of progressivism make things unstable.
Priority 3
3a - Middle east conflicts - these include Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Turkish involvement. Turkey may get a higher priority view depending upon their actions in Syria, Libya and Cyprus
3b - Natural disasters - can’t predict but there are some biggies on the horizon that can hit at any moment.
Iran/Iraq
Lots happening fast. Missile strike killed at least 5 senior Iranian military officers including:
Qassem Soleimani & Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis - Iranian Quds force
2nd in command of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Naim Qassem
US marines arrested Qais AlKhazali and Hadi AlAmry.
All key players involved in the embassy attack and iranian supported militias in Iraq.
US is warning all civilians to avoid Iraq and are warning that they expect more attacks. Esper in as statement said the US will conduct preemptive strikes as they see fit.
The Iraqi army and much of the govt is relatively neuteral.