State department has called for all civilians to leave Iraq immediately. Meanwhile, US military forces continue to stream into the middle east. Many are staging in Kuwait before moving into Iraq. OSINT observers note extremely high levels of military aircraft activity supporting the airlift.
A number of middle eastern airlines have shut down flights to bagdad. Embassies of european nations at elevated alert stature.
Iranian options - still much speculation but here are some options
1. Milita attacks on US military and persons throughout the region. - currently highest possibility. Includes Yemeni ‘rebels’. Iran will want to hide behind these ‘militas’ for as long as possible.
2. Unconventional/asymmetrical attacks - cyber attacks and sabotage Terror attacks - it is pretty well known that Iran has operative cells throughout the west and the potential is high they may target US embassies or diplomats. Major cities ramping up alert levels though DHS states no specific threats have been identified.
3. Conventional military operations - first attacking shipping in the Gulf to seize up oil supplies. However, US and allied nations have a lot of combatants in the region already to protect shipping and would be costly to Iran.
- Ballastic missiles targeting naval and Saudi facilities. Failure to stand up to Iran after the refinery attack puts them as ‘weak’ in Iranian eyes and a potential target with low probability of punching back
- Israel - I don't think Iran and its forces (hezebollah) are ready to pokes that tiger yet as they have their hands full already.
The most serious concern is that Iran will go for all three at once. Iran has lost a lot of "face" in having a "hero" so easily taken out of the game after they though they had the US behind the 8 ball. They need something big to regain credability in the region Evaluation of the US response Very robust to say the least. Shows that Trump is taking Iranian threats very seriously. Troop deployments bolster Iraqi assets, airpower (and I'm pretty sure there is evidence of fast movers headed to the region - probably Saudi Arabia - and strategic bombers have a bigger stick to strike Iran proper. Again, still looking for evidence of additional carrier(s) heading to the region. I further think that our military will not not have its hands tied by oppressive "rules of engagement". That is apparent from the fact that we hit them at the 'bagdad airport.'
All signs suggest that a ground war against Iran is not immediately in the works. However, there are enough big stick items that can hit Iran that should strike fear into their black hearts. Other responses - there are reports that Iraqi's and Iranian protestors were celebrating the deaths. Not gonna see in main stream media any time soon, but videos and reports are getting out. Iran's condition - economy in shambles due to economic sanctions with very little reserve. The US actions may have emboldened Iraqi and Iranian protestors to be more aggressive in their actions. In Iraq, protestors have extra hate of iranian supported militias and should provide a wealth of targeting intelligence for US planners.
N Korea - Being overwhelmed by Iran. Basically the 'christmas present' was a bust. Decision made to proceed with a new strategic rocket (possibly solid fuel and MIRV) and outside chance of renewed nuclear tests. However, the door remained open for a diplomatic effort. Wondering what Kim is thinking as he watches US response to Iranian aggression.
Israel - Netanyahu has returned early from Greece to meet with his cabinet to monitor the situation in Iraq.
But be ALERT, there is increasing numbers of bogus reports floating out there.
Iran
US Embassies on Alert 🚨
• Iraq
• Bahrain
• Pakistan
• Lebanon
• UAE US placed brigade in Italy on alert to send to Lebanon if needed. The entire Division Ready Brigade, 82d ABN to deploy to Iraq/region. 3500 total
Israel has quietly upped its readiness. reports of missile systems (probably iron dome) near Tel Aviv. They have warned Hamas and PIJ not to participate in any Iranian response.