Posted on 03/16/2012 11:09:58 AM PDT by techno
President Obama now trails former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum by four points in a hypothetical 2012 matchup in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virgina. The president continues to hold a modest lead in those states.
Santorum leads the president 48% to 44% in the so-called Core Four states. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and two percent (2%) are undecided. This marks a shift from last week, when the president was slightly ahead of Santorum (5 points).
Obama remains ahead of Romney 46% to 42% showing no change from last week. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in the matchup, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Combined the Core Four have 75 Electoral College votes, and if the president is successful in these states, it would be just about impossible for the GOP candidate to win the White House. On the other hand, if a Republican were to win the four states, the president's prospects for reelection would be minimized.
During 2008, Obama picked up 52% of the vote in these states to Republican nominee John McCain's 48%.
The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 10-15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports.
Both GOP candidates lead the president by roughly 20 points among men in the four states. The president holds similar leads over his opponents among women.
Among voters not affiliated with either major political party in those states, Romney is slightly ahead by 44% to 40%. But Santorum leads the president 56% to 34% among unaffiliated voters in those states.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
GO SANTORUM, GO
And time for Gingrich to GO home.
I don’t care how many dead people and illegals O’Bama turns out, if Santorum is winning independents by that huge of a margin Obama can not beat Santorum in the swing states. Period.
I’m not a great RS fan, but I’ll support him enthusiastically in the general.
Has anybody noticed that the second sentence conflicts with the first?
Sure does
Obuggery will lose all of these four as he is hated in them.
Yes it does. But I wrote it as Rasmussen wrote it.
G) Obama can't win Wisconsin or Indiana and is on his way to losing Pennsylvania
Apparently those that say this election will be close enough for NC to mean anything are just plain wrong.
The hypothetical combination of all 4 states gives the edge to Santorum, although individually state-by-state Obama has a slight lead at this time. How that could be isn’t disclosed, but it sure means zero for an incumbent has little to no strength against a lesser-known challenger.
Same here. Besides, this sort of poll is about useless until we hit late September/early october - too much can happen in the mean time.
That is kind of bizarre. LOL
With all due respect I disagree. Here is why:
a)Cuts deeply into the argument that Romney is more electable than Santorum. When there is a 8 point gap between candidates in swing states that is huge.
b)And destroys the argument that Santorum cannot do well with independent voters or female independents. A 22 point advantage over Obama is simply out of this world especially when Romney only boasts a 4 point lead in the same demographic.
c)Will encourage conservatives to rally around Santo and to leave Gingrich. This poll result will need time to filter down to the masses but by Tuesday I expect the folks in Illinois will know of its existence.
d)And I expect Santorum to cite this poll result now in his speeches to give himself further credibility with his audience.
Remember, poll after poll shows that Romney’s chief advantage over Santorum among conservatives is his electability. Take that away from the Mittster and what does he have left?
I think that article Rush was talking about was written to make people accept only Romney can win.
just guessing
Yeah, I did. But I assumed it’s because I’m stupid as a poster in another thread just called me....
North Carolina and Virginia used to be solidly conservative. I’m surprised Pennsylvania is no longer considered a swing state. This left-leaning state does go for Republicans, as it did in 2010.
So, for me, the premise here is wrong. Tell me about the following states:
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Florida
Missouri
Wisconsin
Colorado
New Mexico
North Carolina
Whoever gets the majority of the electoral votes of these states probably wins the election.
The libs are ramping up hit pieces like crazy now. The Huffington post is posting multiple ones daily, but let’s show them it’s not going to work! Go Rick!
That first sentence is a little misleading.
A possible preview of this poll from Purple Strategies in Feb 2012:
Purple America is defined by 12 purple states:
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Head to head in all purple states:
Obama 47 Romney 43
Obama 46 Santorum 44
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
Obama 47 Romney 44
Obama 46 Santorum 47
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Obama 48 Romney 39
Obama 47 Santorum 42
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
Obama 44 Romney 46
Obama 43 Santorum 48
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
Obama 47 Romney 45
Obama 47 Santorum 45
Obama approval/disapproval:
The Wild West: 46/48
The Heartland: 43/49
The Rust Belt 40/53
Southern Swing 46/50
All purple states 44/50
Poll was conducted between Feb 18-21/2012 among 1343 likely voters.
http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/Feb2012Poll_v7.pdf
I'm not a fan of Ricky either. That said, since Tuesday I support thim for the nomination.
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