Sarah Palin in "The Undecided," or, Only Her Halibut Knows for Sure

One of the most fascinating, and maddening, topics among the political class in the past few weeks has been the electoral prospects of one Sarah Louise Palin (Schwerpunkt-AK), former GOP Vice Presidential Candidate and Governor of Alaska. A number of GOP-friendly websites seem to have parted ways over her candidacy, with flamewars, purgings, and divisions running rampant. Among the sites with strong opinions are The Other McCain (pro), Ace of Spades (somewhat con), RedState (which seems to have descended into fullbore Palin Derangement Syndrome over the last few days), and Free Republic, which is officially pro-Sarah but has developed a goodly crop of naysayers, ranging from Cainiacs and Perrywinkles all the way out to full-fledged orcs.

There seem to be almost as many opinions on what she is doing as there are posts; and especially since Palin's interview with David Brody at the Iowa State Fair back in August, of which the relevant portion is as follows:

Palin: There is still a lot of contemplation that goes on within a family, deciding whether to engage in such a life-changing venture, putting yourself forward in the name of service, in such a position as President of the United States. So, we’re still thinking about it, and the impact on family.

Family comes first in my life, and I just don’t want to adversely affect the family. So, we’re still talking about it, thinking about it. And that’s what I want supporters to understand.

At the same time, I want to be very fair to supporters and not keep them hanging on in perpetuity. It’s fair to them to give them an answer here, in short order, so that they can jump on board with someone else, and/or to decide for themselves what they want to do. So, still haven’t made up my mind, haven’t decided when that announcement would be yet.

Palin: I think that that is a fair timeline for people, because Fall time, they can start getting engaged with different campaigns, but still thinking about it, and really, really desiring to be a participant in the positive change that needs to happen in this country.

Economy getting back on the right track. Jobs created for Americans. I want to be a part of that, whether it be as a candidate, or as a supporter of the right candidate. I’m still in that decision making phase.

It is interesting, by the way, that political analysts such as Fred Malek said on September 12 is too late for Palin to enter the race but that conventional sources are still claiming that there is sufficient time and room for Chris Christie (Jabba-NJ) to enter, with various VIPs from former First Lady Barbara Bush to Henry Kissinger reportedly urging him to run following his speech at the Reagan Library.

There are only so many possibilities. Let's list them one by one and then try to get a feel for the situation.

This is the favorite choice of the orcs and of some of the more vicious partisans of other candidates; in the light of Palin's long history of personal character (despite the fevered accusations to the contrary from the left), they are left grasping at straws as to why. The two favorite explanations seem to be ego (camera time) or money (millions of dollars in TV shows and speaking fees). In particular they opine that a failed Presidential bid will mean the end of her marketability.

This is absurd on its face, given that Mike Huckabee turned his candidacy into a Fox News gig; and the fact that the popularity she is sure to generate by declaring will not suddenly deflate due to the presence of a previously hidden skeleton in her closet (remember, she *has* not Gardasil stories lurking in her past, and her official emails have already been swept under the rug).

Even the fever swamps of MSNBC and NPR have declined to give Joe McGinniss's "exposé" any exposure.

Oddly enough, this seems the least credible; after all this time, surely someone in Palin's position would know by now if she is planning to run? The family vacation "bus tours" including the upstaging of Romney's declaration, and the visits to Iowa, the Facebook postings...why else would they have happened unless she is running?

Well, perhaps. Maybe it would help to take a step back and look at the big picture.

Let's start by considering the past. Palin is such a rock star, a political phenomenon, that it is hard to believe that just over three years ago, nobody except a few fanatical political junkies, and some Exxon-Mobil lawyers up in Alaska, had even *heard* of her.

Recall the 2008 Presidential race, where, despite the claims of the RINOs and insiders, Palin supporters did not cost the GOP the Presidential race by staying home in a huff: McCain alienated the GOP base, as well as most of the independents, by apparently losing his nerve during the September financial crisis, abandoning the campaign ("unilateral disarmament" since Obama did not stop campaigning) to "deal with the crisis." Few people remember it, but at that point the McCain-Palin ticket actually had the lead.

McCain more or less went on to throw the election to Obama, going so far as to say of his opponent during a debate "don't fear this man as your President" and refusing the pleas of a disgruntled Sarah Palin to appear in Michigan to try to pull that state to the GOP column. Not to mention the inside-baseball news of betrayals by McCain staffers in setting up Palin for "gotcha" interviews in the press. Despite all of these elements, the final election was not a blowout as some have held; even though the Obama ticket won a majority of states, the popular vote was merely 53%-47%. (This is significant for a GOP loss, but not a GOP victory, since there are few "deep red" cities in which GOP candidates can stack the deck to make a losing cause seem closer than it was, or make a fairly close *national* vote contest look like a mandate.)

And further aiding the Obama machine was the attraction, particularly of young voters, of the "coolness factor" of voting for the nation's First Black President^TM and the open partisanship of the press in cooperating with the Obama campaign in a virtual cover-up of his early life.

The electoral loss did not diminish Palin's status as a rock star, which began at the Republican National Convention with her speech: three years AFTER being at the bottom of a losing ticket, Palin is still in demand for speeches and in person. How many other ex-VP candidates can say this?

But the popularity did not come without a price. Palin, as payback for making the race so close, was soon to be subjected to Chicago thug politics (which she called "The Thumping" in her first New York Slimes bestseller, Going Rogue). The politics of personal destruction, despite Clinton's assurances, were not over: Palin was hit with dozens of nuisance lawsuits, under an Alaska whistleblower law which she herself had signed. The suits were designed to defame her, ruin her good name as a future candidate, and to destroy her personally and politically by dragging her and her family through the mud and bankrupting her. My favorite suit is the one which claimed that her legal defense fund was illegal: despite the fact that it was crafted BY lawyers to match exactly prior legal defense funds which had already survived legal scrutiny. She was forced to return the money from this fund, after those attacking her claimed that the word "Official" in the title implied state sponsorship: even though that title was there only to distinguish the fund from FAKE Sarah Palin Defense Funds set up by political operatives to siphon donations away from her.

So, Sarah was facing legal bills of half-a-million dollars (and climbing, with dozens of more knowingly spurious suits waiting), on a salary of $125,000 / year; and with the state's time and effort grinding to a halt in the effort to comply with the discovery requirements of the lawsuits.

Sarah's response was one of the most unexpected developments in modern American political history: instead of hanging on as a useless lame duck, she resigned the governorship, removing herself as a target for the suits: and then went on the offensive -- first writing a New York Slimes bestseller entitled Going Rogue, then starring in a reality show on TLC called Sarah Palin's Alaska: millions of dollars of free, FAVORABLE publicity and positioning with a likely voter demographic, which she not only paid no money for, but which instead paid HER. And then acting as unofficial face of and spokesman for the nascent Tea Party movement, culminating in a historic sweep of Congressional and Legislative seats nationwide, in November of 2010: the greatest power shift in close to 50 years.

This, then, is the Sarah Palin who is considering a run for the Presidency. But despite her popularity, and her accomplishments, she has made enemies as well. Even as the Bible speaks of "The World, The Flesh, And The Devil" fighting against the soul, so too, Palin faces three sets of enemies fighting against her candidacy: The Press, the GOP Insiders, and The Democrats.

The World is the Press: the hustling, bustling, oh-so-connected, wiser, and generally just more sophisticated than her (and you) in every way.

Despite their disdain, it is obvious that they suffer a toxic codependence on Palin. Since Bush is no longer President, they need someone as a target (since John Boehner is too much of a jellyfish to get people riled up over). And she lives, rent-free, inside their heads. Their thinking goes like this: as long as she draws a crowd, she is newsworthy, and, oh, the sheer JOY of being the next one to catch a major gaffe, or manufacture one; and try to imagine the horror of being the one organization SCOOPED if and when she announces for President and I am not covering it.

...but if we go ahead and cover her, that keeps her in the public eye, and what's worse, gives her credibility: we can't bury the REAL woman in myths and clips from old Tina Fey spoofs and Katie Couric and Charles Gibson "gotcha!" interviews to make a false persona. Dammit.

Look at all of the dirt the Press had ready to go against her, and all so-coincidentally scheduled to hit right when they estimated she would be just beginning a new national campaign: from Nick Broomfield's Sarah Palin, You Betcha! to the ill-fated Joe McGinniss book. Sarah's counteroffensive took two forms: first, political judo by pushing back any announcement, so that the dirt hit not a candidate, but a private citizen; and secondly, announcement of a possible libel lawsuit against the deep pockets of McGinniss's publisher, Random House (and by extension, its owner, the giant German publishing house Bertelsmann, which by some coincidence also published Obama's Dreams From My Father. Small world.) It is also noteworthy that following the lawsuit, a number of the orc-like anti-bloggers seem to have quietened down, and normally reliable progressive outlets like NPR and MSNBC suddenly declined to have McGinniss on for the expected softball interviews.

Moving on to the Flesh -- the temptation from within, the lust, the appetite to power. As Palin herself said in Going Rogue, "In politics one either eats well or sleeps well." And the current GOP, especially the entrenched Washington crowd -- they have been feeding very well at the trough of late. Why should they want to end it?

Lobbying influence, philosophical control. Rush Limbaugh loves to recount how various household-name, national level Republican insiders love to take him aside during cocktail hour or somesuch, and speak to him in a low voice of how he has got to make "his people" -- the unwashed, the flyover country, the social conservatives -- UNDERSTAND. Nobody really goes for that "God and Country stuff", but they'll tolerate it for appearances; but you know, that pro-life fanaticism just HAS to go, there's no room for it. (By which I take it to mean that a lot of the pampered wives of Washington insiders are pro-abortion, and have their husbands by the ovaries.)

And of course, the resurgence of the Tea Party, and their threat to not play ball, bids fair to upset the long tradition of Republicans showing their moral superiority to Democrats by acquiescing and compromising away their principles on every major policy issue as soon as it threatens to be inconvenient for the Democrats. Tea Partiers threaten to live up to their principles: making the GOP insiders look bad by comparison.

2) K-street insiders: look what Palin did to corruption in Alaska. They’re SCARED. If the corruption in DC was eliminated, the federal budget could probably be cut in HALF. And what would become of the lobbyists who can no longer get paid six-figure or higher incomes for what is nothing more than sophisticated indirect bribery with other people's money?

3) Oft overlooked, because of all of the “she can’t win, let’s push somebody ELECTABLE” propaganda, is that Obama is weak. Dhimmi Carter weak. LBJ weak. And — in the opposite of how Bill Clinton got elected, because none of the major players wanted to challenge Bush ‘41 after the First Gulf War’s success, EVERYONE wants to challenge Obama. And Sarah has shown that she is more popular than ANY of the other GOP field in play right now.

And then, finally, after the World and the Flesh, there's the Devil. The Democrats.

Given all of these factors, we can summarize her tactical position with regard to entering the GOP Presidential race as follows:

1) Getting in now makes her the primary target from all sides
2) As an observer, and not a declared candidate, she can let the others fight it out and make some of them drop out (which means more time and room for her at the podium when she *does* show up at a debate)
3) Sitting out also means she can study the opposition and perform SWOT analyses on them, while she remains (as a politician) more of an unknown quantity (lots is known about her, but not as much about how she performs under fire: you *know* she has grown in savvy and polish since the old Gibson / Couric interviews, but doesn't want to tip her hand about it yet)
4) And she can save money: she doesn’t have the personal wealth of a Romney or the Texas Slush Funds of Perry: and much of the money (and the voters) are sitting out. Maybe those voters, and their wallets are waiting for her?
5) But not everyone is just waiting for Palin. Karl Rove is s pretty sophisticated operator, and he is likely behind one of the memes that “she is declaring today / later this week / this weekend / next week FOR SURE.” Get the rumor going and make Sarah deny it: if she denies it enough, it looks like she is denying running at all; then if she does run hold those statements against her. And if she doesn’t deny it, then "Goody, she’s not running." And in the meantime Rove can make his own do-it-yourself Palin fatigue by proxy, without her doing anything, by starting his own destructive rumors.

So, is she or isn’t she? Has she made up her mind? Well, I think so, but also, that the answer is that she has both made up her mind, and also that she honestly doesn’t know if she is running.

I think she has made up her mind to move in such a way to maximize the influence of the Tea Party, to maximize the good to the country. She thinks that she can do this best by becoming President — but due to all the opposition she has faced, she doesn’t want to run for the sake of running, or of chances for future publicity, but only if she can win: for a certain type of failure would set the Tea Party back to nowhere.

And so she waits and considers: she wants to bleed the opponents, and find a time when they are all at more or less a low ebb (the first campaign enthusiasm wearing off) and she can ride the initial wave of interest and excitement to get an early lead in some primaries. And there are no other RINO or establishment candidates about to enter. And this is yet another reason she hesitates: first, she doesn’t know *when* her conditions to allow her to enter will occur; secondly, some of the establishment types, like Rove, have figured out she is waiting for the right combination of circumstances in order to declare, and they keep on hinting / bluffing at new RINOs with extensive establishment backing (Perry, Christie, Jeb Bush?) in order to keep her off balance and hoping to push back her announcement until it really IS to late to declare with any hope of victory.

And so the answer is YES, she has decided to run IF she can find the right opening; but NO, she doesn’t see that opening yet. She is not toying with her supporters but keeping an eye on the race, hoping to see the circumstances which will ALLOW her to run.

And if such an opening doesn't appear this cycle, she will continue as a commentator, and cheerleader, and bide her time...until 2016.

Last I heard was that The Undefeated comes to Wally World tomorrow. It will be real soon after that. Or else it will be after the Glenn Beck thing, or after her speech overseas.

Anyway, sometime.

RE :"Last I heard was that The Undefeated comes to Wally World tomorrow. It will be real soon after that. Or else it will be after the Glenn Beck thing, or after her speech overseas."

I would watch it if it ran on Showtime, Stars or The Movie Channel. Other political movies seem to show up there.

Remember when the initial release was a sign she was going to announce? Then the PPV release date was another? The suspense is killing me LOL

Sarah Palin notes this decision as a “life-changing decision”-probably the most important in her life-and you are upset she won’t follow YOUR timeline? Do as YOU would?

that observation ALONE....”life-changing decision” speaks volumes as to the integrity of any answer she finds finally to that question.

Who among us...in her shoes..with the media at our feet....with Senators, Congressmen, and Governors standing in rows to receive her imprimatur...tens of thousands roaring in the wings for HER...could sit contemplatively..pondering, obviously praying, over such a “life-changing decision”? Most of us would rush the cameras in a heartbeat, as hard as Al Sharpton ever would, launching ourselves onto CNN, MSNBC, FOX etc. chasing our 15 minutes headlong into futility...

Regardless of what she decides, we already have been graced with her gifts such as they are, to our Republic...and consider any further offering of herself upon the national stage as a gift from Him, one far beyond what we as a nation deserve.

Wow, good one. You are really impressive in your come backs.

Fact is, you know, and we all know, that the day of reckoning is coming.

You are going to look like a fool here very soon.

I sort of feel sorry for you. Deep down inside you know that Palin is not running, and you know that you (like a woman, incidentally) have blindly followed a path that was going nowhere. Now you’re getting defensive. I understand, but, you have sort of brought this on yourself.

Try to learn from this, and you’ll be better off. In the meantime, you might want to stock up on some chocolate girlie, because depression is about to set in.....

You are going to look like a fool here very soon.

The reason I changed my tagline is because I came across the Reagan quote and liked it.

When Sarah gets in, I will post a thread linked to your post just to show everybody what a fool you are.

okie dokie.

If she runs, I’ll be glad, as it looks like no one is going to mount a serious challenge to Romney...at least at this stage. So, unlike you, I would welcome something to be other than I have predicted. I haven’t advocated that she not run, because I don’t have strong feelings. If she does, great...although I wouldn’t have high hopes because it is going to be difficult in the extreme at this stage to beat Romney, and last week, with FL moving up just made it worse. If she doesn’t, as I think will happen, well, she is just in the same category as Daniels, Barbour, Jindal, DeMint, etc., etc., etc., etc., all those who didn’t run. And whether I am right or not in my prediction is of no consequence. So enjoy your next few weeks as this story plays out to its conclusion.....

It's as simple as this; I support Palin because I believe she is an honorable person. There are almost none of those in Washington.

As an honorable person, she would not be playing games with people who believe in her.

Her delaying tactic is strategic. It keeps all her opponents, both foreign (I'm looking at you, Barry) and domestic, off-balance.

Evidently you do not believe Palin is an honorable person, so I view your feigning support for her with a jaundiced eye.

You are either a liar or an idiot. Neither one is good.

You are either a liar or an idiot. Neither one is good.”

Um, ok.

If she doesn’t run, which is certainly possible (if not probable at this stage), then logically there are also other possibilities.

We’ll know soon enough.

(No dispute that DC is perpetually void of honor, by the way....that should hardly be news to anyone around here....)

It's pretty obvious that Palin only has a sliver of support among Conservatives. The recent Herman Cain Straw Poll from the National Federation of Republican Women clearly illustrates what I am saying.

One of the questions was about Christy and Palin, whether it would have changed their vote if they were listed in the poll, and 32% said they would vote Christie, only 22% mentioned Palin and 46% said neither one would change their vote.

The money is also pretty much locked in, this late in the game. Any non candidate who thinks they can jump in now and take full command of all votes and contributions is rather naive or stupid. The same can be said for those who would support such a candidate.

I doubt he can pick up on the obvious signs of her imminent candidacy.

I spilled my cup of coffee on the floor this morning. Look at this. Definitely a sign she's running.

Wipe up your mess and look at this.

This tells me all I need to know!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2787145/posts

Nice cut-and-paste job of your own reply from other threads.

Tell you what, since you seem to be supporting Sarah, and have been here since 1998.

Try actually reading the article in its entirety, with more attention to detail than you did the first time.

It was an apologia for Palin, the very opposite of a complaint.

Cheers!

Wow! The author describes the gop beautifully:

“(The Tea Party)bids fair to upset the long tradition of Republicans showing their moral superiority to Democrats by acquiescing and compromising away their principles on every major policy issue as soon as it threatens to be inconvenient for the Democrats.”

Nail. Hammer. Impact.

Her actions now are not in context. We don’t see the whys and wherefores. The conclusion has not taken place.

Your deciding she’s teasing people assumes a conclusion that is unknown.

How about...I know this is crazy...but how about we wait and see what happens before damning her for actions, much less her motivations behind said actions that haven’t even been finished yet?

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