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Anyone Noticing The Bogus Polls That Are Intentionally Oversampling Blacks?
10/6/2008 | Laissez-Faire Capitalist

Posted on 10/06/2008 4:53:15 PM PDT by Laissez-faire capitalist

Has anyone been paying attention to the bogus polls that are intentionally adding in blacks to the tally of surveved voters to apparently increase Obama's percentage in said polls?

1.) Here's one such poll:

From The ABC News/Washington Post poll:

"This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 27-29, 2008, among a randon sample of 1,271 adults, including an oversample of African Americans weighted to their correct share of the national population, for a total of 165 black respondents."

There is no need to increase the number of blacks into this poll or any poll, because over time - four, five or six polls in a row - the average of those polls will come very close to the correct share of blacks, whites, hispanics and so on of the national population.

2.) On top of that, the polls are oversampling Democrats, and undersampling Republicans.

3.) And on top of that, none of the polls are taking into account the Bradley (Wilder) Effect. This effect didn't show up in the recent Democratic primaries between Hillary and Obama, because these primaries weren't general election matchups. These primaries didn't have lots of independents voting in them, nor did they have lots of Republicans voting in them.

In 1982, when Tom Bradley ran against his Republican opponent in the general election matchup, the polls showed him clearly beating George Deukmejian, but on election day, Bradley lost.

In 1989, the polls showed Democrat L. Douglas Wilder beating Republican Marshall Coleman, but on election day, Wilder lost.

Bradley (Wilder Effect) in a nut-shell:

What ultimately happens as a result of when people are polled and some don't want anyone to think they are racist, so they say that they will vote for the black guy, when they have no intention of actually voting for the black guy.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Miscellaneous; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; abc; barackobama; bradleyeffect; democrat; democrats; electionpresident; mccain; mccainpalin; nobama08; obama; obamatruthfile; swingstates; wapo; wildereffect
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist

I have seen the bogus polls, and I do not even read them.


21 posted on 10/06/2008 5:41:25 PM PDT by tessalu
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Will backfire. Blacks will not go to the polls if they think O has already won.


22 posted on 10/06/2008 5:43:08 PM PDT by anton
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To: snippy_about_it

Sometimes, I get discouraged, but then I come to “Free
Republic”, and then I see so many lovely Americans, who love their country, and their freedom, and then I am able to get up and fight on. I love the people who pray for our nation and our people.


23 posted on 10/06/2008 5:47:26 PM PDT by tessalu
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist

All I know is that I’m usually surprised on election day.


24 posted on 10/06/2008 5:53:34 PM PDT by keats5 ("I hope for his sake, Joe Biden got that VP thing in writing."- Rudy)
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist
The MSM will never allow for the Pubs to be ahead. It's been happening every
election. Gore by 10, Kerry by 5, and now Obama by 8. Thay want to
steal the election through the courts that the Communists have crawled into.
25 posted on 10/06/2008 5:55:19 PM PDT by MaxMax (I'll welcome death when God calls me. Until then, the fight is on)
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist
I say that I have no explanation for the polls, other than..

they ususally are wrong..

that I sense a strong surge for the McPalin ticket and that we have visual data that shows us the FRENZY for McPalin( okay, Palin).

We do know Sarah is drawing huge unprecedented numbers to her rallies, her coffees, her anything, that this is unheard of for a VP nominee let alone a Pub following 8 yrs of poor leadership from a Pub president. We do know the RNC and compliance fund SEEMS to be gathering LOTS of money....

We also know that sampling of the population no matter what the pollsters say is just a shot in dark and if you make any variance in the people you call....during the day?..black?..illegal?...welfare?..muslim?..stupid?....that the polls are going to be skewed....

that is what I say...

we have plenty of historical evidence where who "should have" won gave the concession speech.

26 posted on 10/06/2008 6:27:34 PM PDT by cherry ( chinese crisis: danger vs opportunity......we have opportunity!)
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To: ZULU
poll numbers are what they are......they were wrong two times running haven't they?....yes, they have been....

read em' and weap, but pray and pass the ammunition anyway.....

besides, I found out today that my husbands boss is going to Medagorje(sp)tomorrow and hes' taking a plain envelope with my husbands deepest request: asking God not to let evil take over our country.....so its in the bag people....we are going to win....Alleluia.!!..(but I chided my hubby for not naming names...he says GOD knows!)

27 posted on 10/06/2008 6:32:08 PM PDT by cherry ( chinese crisis: danger vs opportunity......we have opportunity!)
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist

This is all setting up like Harry Truman beating Thomas Dewey. In that day, the polls were all skewed for Dewey and the pollsters stopped polling in September-October 1948 and what happened - Truman won! In the last 30 days Truman went on the offensive through whistle stops on the presidential train.


28 posted on 10/06/2008 6:33:46 PM PDT by DocT111
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To: cherry

The priest who started Medagorje was a fraud. The Vatican has even denounced his “shrine.”


29 posted on 10/06/2008 6:37:15 PM PDT by Clemenza (PRIVATIZE FANNIE AND FREDDIE! NO MORE BAILOUTS!)
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist
I don't understand the criticism.
"weighted to their correct share of the national population"
It says they've oversampled black people and then interpolated the results down to the correct proportion to get a more accurate result. The reasoning is likely that a large proportion of black people will vote Obama and pollsters want an accurate estimate on the percentage to sell to news agencies. All polls to this to a certain extent - they changed their results based on those polls to try and even out the demographics and biases in the sample. One typical example is because comparatively young people (18-35) have home phone lines and pollsters can't poll cell phones, they have to extrapolate to get a more accurate prediction from those who do answer. They'll do the same thing based on registered Democrat supporters vs. Republican supporters and so on. The Bradley effect is potentially an issue, but it's impossible to say what, if any, impact it will have. This will be controversial here, but I think a greater potential issue than the Bradley effect will be what happened to the UK Conservative Party in 1992 - they got a narrow win after polls showed a landslide for the Labour Party and it has been suggested that people were embarrassed to admit to pollsters they were voting Conservative after 12 years of power when faced with an impending Labour landslide.
30 posted on 10/06/2008 6:41:21 PM PDT by cherryade
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist

The pollsters ARE accounting for the bradley effect. What they are do is as “would your NEIGHBOR vote for a black man?” Then when they answer, THAT is accounting for the bradley effect.


31 posted on 10/06/2008 6:49:24 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist

If they don’t put this stuff out there now, the can’t cry “it wuz stollin” later. That will lead to race riots (the backlash will be the Patriot Riots as coined by someone on the Fox blog I saw) and the media will have something else to cover for weeks and weeks rather than have to utter the President McCain and Vice President PAlin?


32 posted on 10/06/2008 6:53:04 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (I Love The Smell Of Schmidt Storm in the Morning...and Afternoon....and at Night!!!!!)
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To: cherry

As people of faith, we know every prayer helps.


33 posted on 10/07/2008 6:58:53 AM PDT by ZULU (Non nobis, non nobis Domine, sed nomini tuo da gloriam. God, guts and guns made America great.)
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist
In 1989, the polls showed Democrat L. Douglas Wilder beating Republican Marshall Coleman, but on election day, Wilder lost.

Actually..Wilder won..but it was a lot closer than the polls showed..they had Wilder winning in a landslide..

34 posted on 10/07/2008 7:05:55 AM PDT by BerniesFriend
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