Posted on 04/12/2002 5:43:45 AM PDT by blam
Black Death 'was not plague' say experts
The Black Death may not have been caused by bubonic plague after all, say US scientists.
They have been looking at church records from the 14th century to find out how the disease spread.
They now think it was probably some other infection passed on by human contact and not bubonic plague which relies on flea-ridden rats.
Records show the disease spread along busy roads and rivers and over natural barriers which would have restricted rats.
They also say there are other diseases with similar symptoms which are more likely candidates.
The modern version of the plague usually occurs when there is an increase in the number of rat deaths - something not recorded during the 1300s.
Experts at Penn State University say an ancestor of bubonic plague might have been responsible, but if so it has evolved into something very different.
Bubonic plague was first suggested as the cause of the Black Death by 19th century doctors.
But Penn State's Dr James Wood said: "This disease appears to spread too rapidly among humans to be something that must first be established in wild rodent populations, like bubonic plague.
"An analysis of priests' monthly mortality rates during the epidemic shows a 45-fold greater risk of death than during normal times, a level of mortality far higher than usually associated with bubonic plague."
Story filed: 13:23 Friday 12th April 2002
Do you think symptoms still linger with you? Sounds a little scary.
I have heard a number of well informed experts opine that much of the virulence of this outbreak was due to a bacterium [in the Haemophilus genus as I recall] which occurred along with the influenza virus. Do you know if such an association was found and, if so, were any LD50 testings done?
Sorry, don't know about the bacteria angle or any other conclusions.
We can guess a lot of things until we have a undisputed sample.
Mel Brooks and Carl Reiner did a lot of "The 2000 Year Old Man" skits.
The most rare and deadly form was the scepticemic plauge, with almost 100% mortality rate. This literally caused the blood to coagulate in the veins, causing the skin to turn black (thus the name, the Black Death). This is most similar in symptoms to a hemmoragic fever, like Ebola.
As the plauge progressed across Europe, it changed to a pneumonic plauge that attacked the lungs. Victims coughed up bloody mucus at first, then as the lung tissues broke down, the liquid became clear red fluid, flowing freely. Death quickly followed. The pneumonic plauge had a 90-95% mortality rate. Also, this type of plauge was air transmissable, and thus extremely infectious. Was this a rapid mutation of the bacterium/virus, or was it another bacterium/virus infection taking advantage of the victims of the original plauge and their overwhelmed immune systems? Thus, in its later stages, it could well have been a multiple organism plauge.
The plauge killed between one-quarter and one-half of the entire population of Europe. If it was in fact bacterial in nature, as originally believed, then a new outbreak could be effectively treated with antibiotics, unless a highly resistant form emerges or is genetically engineered. On the other hand, if it was viral in nature, it would be extremely difficult to treat. There are breakthroughs occuring today in anti-viral drugs and therapies, but right now vaccines are the only effective and feasible large-scale tool to control a viral plauge. Developing a vaccine takes time, and it takes even long to produce in large quantities. Once you've started to manifest serious symptoms, it9;s too late for the vaccine to help you. A new and unknown highly virulent and infectious viral plauge would be devastating, possibly as much so as the Black Death of 14th Century Europe. This is especially true of such an organism purposely introduced as a bioweapon, as those wielding such a weapon would certainly release it at multiple infection sites in places where it would be certain to be spread quickly, resulting in widespread infection before symptoms began to manifest in the first victims. This would make quarantene efforts very difficult and far less effective, as the plauge would be pandemic before we even knew it was present in the population.
One thing that such a modern plauge would likely repeat from the Black Death plauge is the total breakdown of the social order. Everyone would be afraid of everyone, and thus avoid all human contact outside of their own small intimate social group, family and maybe a few friend and neighbors. Of course, food shipments to cities would screech to a halt. The various governments would step in, but their effectiveness would be limited at best. Fear, anarchy, infrastructure breakdown, crime, emotional breakdown, even conventional or nuclear retaliation against suspected perpetrating nations, all would cause as much chaos as the disease itself. With modern citizens being so dependant on society and incapable of taking care of themselves, it would get very ugly very quickly.
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