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Posted on 12/20/2025 6:02:42 AM PST by MtnClimber
It was less than three years ago — early 2023 — that I was writing about the then-universal government and industry line that electric vehicles (EVs) would soon be taking over the American car market. In April 2022 the Biden Administration had adopted aggressive vehicle mileage standards intended to be achievable only through rapid transition to EVs. Our “climate leader” states, California and New York, had then adopted regulations in August and September 2022, respectively, mandating a phase-out of sales of combustion vehicles, to culminate in 2035, after which only EVs would be allowed. In a post in January 2023, I linked to the websites of Ford and GM, where they both touted their grand plans for rapid conversion of their companies to the manufacture of mostly or entirely EVs. At that time, Ford was claiming that it would “lead America’s shift to EVs,” and would achieve 50% of its sales in that category by 2030. GM bragged about its “path to an all-electric future” by 2035.
In a post on February 23, 2023, I expressed skepticism.
It seems like all the smart people have made up their minds that the future of automobiles belongs to electric vehicles. . . . So, are electric vehicles about to sweep the country and become the dominant form of transportation? I bet against it.
Here was my reasoning:
This is just a specific instance of the general principle that it is always wise to bet against central planning of the economy. EVs may be a successful niche product for a small number of wealthy consumers, but the idea that they will fully replace gasoline powered cars in short order is the dream of central planners, who think they can implement their dream by coercion. Central planning never works, and won’t work this time either.
The past few weeks have brought a lot of news on the EV front. The short version is that even I would not have predicted how quickly and completely the EV fantasy has collapsed.
The background, of course, is that the second Trump administration took prompt steps on re-entering office to end the huge federal support that had been propping up EV sales. The large tax credit for EV purchases was ended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed on July 4 and effective after September 30, 2025. On December 3, the administration announced the roll-back of the vehicle mileage standards known as “CAFE,” to levels at which combustion vehicles can comply.
The collapse of EV sales began immediately with the end of the tax credit. On October 31, trade publication Inside EVs reported on the first month’s results after the end of the credit:
Both J.D. Power and S&P Global Mobility estimate that October's EV market share plummeted to around 5% in the U.S., from a record high of over 12% in September. The battery-powered share of sales also dropped significantly on a year-over-year basis, from over 8% in October 2024. The last time EVs made up 5% of U.S. vehicle sales was in early 2022. According to S&P Global Mobility, some 64,000 new electric vehicles were sold in October. That's an epic drop from September, when Americans bought or leased nearly 150,000 EVs as they scrambled to cash in on the expiring $7,500 incentive.
The big automakers were quick to realize that they had to do a pivot. On December 15 the Wall Street Journal reported that Ford would take a massive charge of $19.5 billion to write down its EV investments:
Ford Motor said Monday it expected to take about $19.5 billion in charges, mainly tied to its electric-vehicle business, a massive hit as the automaker retrenches in the face of sinking EV demand. The sum is among the largest impairments taken by a company and marks the U.S. auto industry’s biggest reckoning to date that it can’t realize its electric-vehicle ambitions anytime soon.
The $19.5 billion is in addition to some $13 billion of operating losses that Ford has incurred over the past 3 years trying to compete in the EV business, even with the huge government subsidies:
Ford . . . has lost $13 billion on its EV business since 2023. . . .
Over at GM, the write-down is smaller, but the change of direction is no less stark. From NBC News, October 16:
On Tuesday, General Motors reported it was taking losses totaling $1.6 billion related to planned changes to its EV rollout. The company attributed some of the change to President Donald Trump’s elimination of the $7,500 in EV purchasing incentives enacted by President Joe Biden.
Nor is the collapse of EV sales limited to Ford and GM. From the NBC piece, as to Tesla:
Plunging sales at Tesla — still the U.S. leader in EV sales — are also contributing to the weakening outlook. Its second-quarter sales dropped almost 13%, and CEO Elon Musk has warned of some “rough quarters” ahead for the company.
And a comparable phenomenon is occurring in other countries, although under differing regulatory and policy regimes. From the Wall Street Journal, October 14:
The Rest of the World Is Following America’s Retreat on EVs. Canada, U.K. and European Union back off electric-vehicle targets as economic reality sets in and even China shows cracks. . . . Carmakers argue the EV business model is an unprofitable proposition given still-high battery costs, spotty car-charging networks and dwindling government subsidies. Incentive programs have ended or have been pared back across Europe and in the U.S. and Canada.
Let’s face it, this was always ill-conceived central planning, and it was never going to work. I went back to the links that I had included to the Ford and GM websites in my January 2022 post. Both links remain active, but the excited talk about leading the way to an all-EV future has been scrubbed from both. Instead, if you go there, you will find, in the case of GM, further links to follow if you want to buy yourself an EV; and in the case of Ford, general news about the company. Reality has returned.
electric isn’t free. someone (employer, et al) is paying for the electricity that is charging her car.
+1!
(See user name, Milton Friedman’s license plate ;)
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Ask Elon Musk. EVs make you a target of the communist DemonRAT Party of Death, Destruction, Sexual Mutilation, Assassinations, and America hating criminal invaders out to take over America.
And I told everyone that a new EV battery plant going up on the north side of Kokomo, IN, was gonna be a bust. They haven't declared it dead yet I know they will soon. All those millions poured into it are gonna go to waste.
I am so glad I hung unto my old Toyota. It may outlast every electric vehicle out there.
In my opinion, EVs are a classic case of the initial concept going off the rails because it ignored several basic facts....
Without getting into a lot of details, years ago I sat through several energy brainstorming sessions ... much of this involved a lot of stupid stuff with wind and solar for which the problem preventing it from making sense was always the disconnect between supply and demand (how does that work for a grid when the electrical generation is random in nature?) and the fact that ‘storing electricity’ is not that easy when the system has developed without storage.... you go to turn the lights on, you expect the electricity to be there to make the lights work.
As part of these discussions, EVs came up.... this was before Tesla was even a thing. I strongly suggested to the group that if EVs were ever going to be a thing on the marketplace, it would only work properly if battery sizes and configurations could be standardized enough so that when one’s battery charge was depleted, the car owner would go to a battery charge location which was setup so that the depleted battery was exchanged with a fully charged one. If the car and the battery exchange station was designed properly, the entire exchange could be done in a matter of minutes. Essentially when the car was purchased, it was without a battery.... the car owner would ‘buy electrons’ via the ongoing exchange of batteries.
There was a primary reason for this concept of battery exchange that had a huge benefit.... it was because virtually every electrical utility has plenty of demand during the day and very low demand at night. Under the concept of battery exchange, depleted batteries could be charged at night when demand was low and electricity was a lot cheaper. What the concept of battery exchange would help do is something that the electrical generation utilities have been trying to figure out for years... how to achieve a more levelized grid.
EVs could still be charged at home and take advantage of lower overnight electrical rates... but the Achilles heel of EVs has always been that they don’t accommodate travel away from one’s home very well....take too long to charge and it’s far less likely that one can take advantage of cheaper rates overnight.
These were pushed - hard - in California - where traveling over long distances is not uncommon, public transportation is dangerous and/or non-existent to where you want to go - and we have an overloaded, past-its-prime, out dated electrical grid, including rolling blackouts in some parts of the states.
During the summer months, I get warnings not to plug in EVs b/c the grid is overloaded.
I swear I’m seeing far fewer EVs now, including Teslas which people bought for some kind of status symbol. I’ve only seen one or two Rivians on the freeways, which I travel daily.
Cool ...
If you had named her "Charlene", I'd be a bit concerned.
He was upset ‘cause some of his sales to the stupid people depend on them (the stupid people) accepting the idea that: “If the gov’mt says this is necessary it must be good.”
He is selling a product. Not meth or fentanyl, a car.
Thank you.
People also don’t consider the raw materials costs in making the batteries.
There’s only so much lithium on the planet. And can solar and wind, which also have their problems with producing them and disposal, meet the demand?
If the whole country went electric, would there be enough in the grid to supply that demand? I’m guessing not in light of the AI electric demand issue that’s come up recently.
Technology doesn’t make them feasible yet.
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May be so but......
Battery powered vehicles for travel aren’t in the script yet.
Yes they can be used for short trips around town, delivery
of goods, mail, etc. But long haul, large loads, miles aren’t
in the picture yet.
When do you think ships, air planes, trains, etc will become
a part of the picture? How many years after we are dead and
gone will battery power become the mode of power? Nuclear
is going to become more involve as time progress. jmo
It’s not so much the technology per se, altough it was not really ready for competive prime time, it was the communists forcing EVs upon the populace that is, and was, the big mistake.
EVs meet the needs of some folks quite well. Others/ not so much or even at all. The technology couldn’t stand on it’s own feet in a competive environment making it unready for complete primtime.
I blame the moronic communists for this failure more than than the technology.
Their AWFULs are morons and dangerous to a functioning society.
As i have been saying for 3+ years, the relentless improvement in battery technology is the real story here.
We spent 100 years improving internal combustion - lots of R&D and $$$$.
In the last 10 years batteries are improving at a much faster rate than did the horsepower/efficiency curve of IC.
The salt based battery has just now entered commercial production - It is already only 1/3 the cost of LFP, which is 2/3 the cost of Lithium Ternary batteries. CATL says prices will further drop, making it 20-30% of the cost of today’s LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate).
Let me explain what that means
1) A battery that is lighter (in weight) than today’s batteries.
2) Operates perfectly fine from -30 degrees to 140 degrees - almost no losses or damage due to temp
3) Can be used to build packs that last 2 - 3 Million miles (@ 10k/year that’s a 25 - 30 year lifetime) - lasts longer than the car suspension!
4) Immune to catching fire
5) Total pack cost (for 120KW) would be ~5K.
6) 120KW will enable cars with ranges of 650 - 1000 miles due to lower weigh/KWH
7) Recharge to 80% in 10-15 minutes
Have you priced a new IC engine or transmission in a newish car?
The average engine swap is now 5-6K! Trans is 3-5K! Some a much higher!
There are far, far fewer parts in an electric car. And the main cost driver now is in freefall cost-wise, while improving all the basic metrics...This should wake you up!
Within a few years, if ICE cars do not lower cost by 30-50% they won’t be able to compete. I give trucks a few extra years - but they too, eventually will be displaced. Meanwhile auto manufactures keep raising prices faster than inflation...Have you priced a midsize car or full sized truck lately?
This is all economics - Nothing to do with “saving the planet” and without subsidies. You can still have your regular gasoline car, but soon you will be paying far more for it than you could be if you went electric.
I have a Roush Mustang GT with a Coyote engine (one of the best engines FORD ever built), and a Tesla Model Y. They are both great cars - but i can tell you that it’s over for ICE. Just a matter of time. Enjoy the rumble/shake while you can, soon it will be a nostalgic classic antique people drive on Sunday afternoons (like a 70s muscle car is today).
I pay ~10 cents KWH for my home electicity. The plan also includes unlimited car charging midnight until 8 AM for 10$ a month. I charge overnight, and in 6 months have only needed to supercharge on a long drive once. So my fuel for 6 months has cost me 60$, for about 7,000 miles. I drive the Mustang much less, and pay about 40$ per tank, or about 160/Month, or 960$ over the same 6 months.
Insurance is within 5$ a month for each car, even though the Tesla is 4 years newer. Also I just replace the wiper fluid on the Tesla, no oil changes, etc.
From what I see, by the time I buy the next car (in 2-4 years), it will probably be electric for many reasons, and will cost less (reverse inflation!)
If you love your ICE car, that’s fine. You can keep it and buy a new one if you wish - it will take quite a few years (3-10) for the market to adjust to the new reality.
The times though, they are changing.
And that, of course, would cause demand to be high and electricity to not be a lot cheaper.
I have been buying Honda Accords for about the past 20 years or so. My first car was a 1960’s Rambler that I could actually work on myself but those days are gone. Curiously enough, my second car was a Pontiac Astre that spontaneously erupted overnight and burned to a slab of molten metal.
This spring I decided that Tesla had essentially solved door to door autonomous driving, which definitely intrigued me so this summer I took the plunge and got a ModelY Tesla. I don’t care about carbon credits, saving more trees or anything else. A car is just a mode for transportation to me. Even without the tax credit you can get a base Model Y for the same price as a top of the line Accord which I think is as a reasonable comparison for look and feel as you can get these days. After 6 months and 2 long distance road trips I am not going back. FSD, Tesla’s essentially hands free driving, is a game changer. I’m not sure when or if it will ever be truly able to let you sleep and drive at the same time, but I could go on and on about just that benefit alone. That does cost me extra but I think it is worth it for door to door coverage. Range and charging stations for out of town trips is a non issue. In fact, I spent more total time gassing up my Accord than I do charging my Tesla.
A Travel America truck stop near me has a dozen or so car charters on the corner lot. They have not been installed yet and are fenced off. Have been there for near two years now. Flash in the government subsidy pan so to say…
EVs will be competitive with petroleum powered vehicles about 20 years after fusion power is commercially implemented.
Criminals run this country. The idiots are just the citizen-facing puppets.
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