As i have been saying for 3+ years, the relentless improvement in battery technology is the real story here.
We spent 100 years improving internal combustion - lots of R&D and $$$$.
In the last 10 years batteries are improving at a much faster rate than did the horsepower/efficiency curve of IC.
The salt based battery has just now entered commercial production - It is already only 1/3 the cost of LFP, which is 2/3 the cost of Lithium Ternary batteries. CATL says prices will further drop, making it 20-30% of the cost of today’s LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate).
Let me explain what that means
1) A battery that is lighter (in weight) than today’s batteries.
2) Operates perfectly fine from -30 degrees to 140 degrees - almost no losses or damage due to temp
3) Can be used to build packs that last 2 - 3 Million miles (@ 10k/year that’s a 25 - 30 year lifetime) - lasts longer than the car suspension!
4) Immune to catching fire
5) Total pack cost (for 120KW) would be ~5K.
6) 120KW will enable cars with ranges of 650 - 1000 miles due to lower weigh/KWH
7) Recharge to 80% in 10-15 minutes
Have you priced a new IC engine or transmission in a newish car?
The average engine swap is now 5-6K! Trans is 3-5K! Some a much higher!
There are far, far fewer parts in an electric car. And the main cost driver now is in freefall cost-wise, while improving all the basic metrics...This should wake you up!
Within a few years, if ICE cars do not lower cost by 30-50% they won’t be able to compete. I give trucks a few extra years - but they too, eventually will be displaced. Meanwhile auto manufactures keep raising prices faster than inflation...Have you priced a midsize car or full sized truck lately?
This is all economics - Nothing to do with “saving the planet” and without subsidies. You can still have your regular gasoline car, but soon you will be paying far more for it than you could be if you went electric.
I have a Roush Mustang GT with a Coyote engine (one of the best engines FORD ever built), and a Tesla Model Y. They are both great cars - but i can tell you that it’s over for ICE. Just a matter of time. Enjoy the rumble/shake while you can, soon it will be a nostalgic classic antique people drive on Sunday afternoons (like a 70s muscle car is today).
I pay ~10 cents KWH for my home electicity. The plan also includes unlimited car charging midnight until 8 AM for 10$ a month. I charge overnight, and in 6 months have only needed to supercharge on a long drive once. So my fuel for 6 months has cost me 60$, for about 7,000 miles. I drive the Mustang much less, and pay about 40$ per tank, or about 160/Month, or 960$ over the same 6 months.
Insurance is within 5$ a month for each car, even though the Tesla is 4 years newer. Also I just replace the wiper fluid on the Tesla, no oil changes, etc.
From what I see, by the time I buy the next car (in 2-4 years), it will probably be electric for many reasons, and will cost less (reverse inflation!)
If you love your ICE car, that’s fine. You can keep it and buy a new one if you wish - it will take quite a few years (3-10) for the market to adjust to the new reality.
The times though, they are changing.
Now that was a great post. Informative and intelligent.
https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/
are you sure you have your facts right on KWH cost?
My point is to not discredit you but your facts don't apply to every situation. If works for you I am fine with that if your facts are right. You analysis just looks a few datapoints. Throw in depreciation of your outdated technology and what is the cost?
And the rules and prices will be changing.
Appropriated technology is just that, appropriate for certain situations and people. Freedom to choose and responsibility with those freedoms. I'd like to see you pay your road tax.
My repeated issue is the one size fits all mandated by a centralized govt.
A point of reference, and I keep meticulous records of all cash costs, not including depreciation. MY 97 suburban is my cheapest operating vehicle at $.25 per mile. The dodge minivan is $.28. When I had a motorcycle years back, it cost me $.60 per mile (but more smiles per mile).
But at what costs. Batteries use a lot of silver and silver is exploding in price. So how much is a battery going to cost in a few years, even if they can surmount this obstacle?