Posted on 12/20/2025 6:02:42 AM PST by MtnClimber
It was less than three years ago — early 2023 — that I was writing about the then-universal government and industry line that electric vehicles (EVs) would soon be taking over the American car market. In April 2022 the Biden Administration had adopted aggressive vehicle mileage standards intended to be achievable only through rapid transition to EVs. Our “climate leader” states, California and New York, had then adopted regulations in August and September 2022, respectively, mandating a phase-out of sales of combustion vehicles, to culminate in 2035, after which only EVs would be allowed. In a post in January 2023, I linked to the websites of Ford and GM, where they both touted their grand plans for rapid conversion of their companies to the manufacture of mostly or entirely EVs. At that time, Ford was claiming that it would “lead America’s shift to EVs,” and would achieve 50% of its sales in that category by 2030. GM bragged about its “path to an all-electric future” by 2035.
In a post on February 23, 2023, I expressed skepticism.
It seems like all the smart people have made up their minds that the future of automobiles belongs to electric vehicles. . . . So, are electric vehicles about to sweep the country and become the dominant form of transportation? I bet against it.
Here was my reasoning:
This is just a specific instance of the general principle that it is always wise to bet against central planning of the economy. EVs may be a successful niche product for a small number of wealthy consumers, but the idea that they will fully replace gasoline powered cars in short order is the dream of central planners, who think they can implement their dream by coercion. Central planning never works, and won’t work this time either.
The past few weeks have brought a lot of news on the EV front. The short version is that even I would not have predicted how quickly and completely the EV fantasy has collapsed.
The background, of course, is that the second Trump administration took prompt steps on re-entering office to end the huge federal support that had been propping up EV sales. The large tax credit for EV purchases was ended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed on July 4 and effective after September 30, 2025. On December 3, the administration announced the roll-back of the vehicle mileage standards known as “CAFE,” to levels at which combustion vehicles can comply.
The collapse of EV sales began immediately with the end of the tax credit. On October 31, trade publication Inside EVs reported on the first month’s results after the end of the credit:
Both J.D. Power and S&P Global Mobility estimate that October's EV market share plummeted to around 5% in the U.S., from a record high of over 12% in September. The battery-powered share of sales also dropped significantly on a year-over-year basis, from over 8% in October 2024. The last time EVs made up 5% of U.S. vehicle sales was in early 2022. According to S&P Global Mobility, some 64,000 new electric vehicles were sold in October. That's an epic drop from September, when Americans bought or leased nearly 150,000 EVs as they scrambled to cash in on the expiring $7,500 incentive.
The big automakers were quick to realize that they had to do a pivot. On December 15 the Wall Street Journal reported that Ford would take a massive charge of $19.5 billion to write down its EV investments:
Ford Motor said Monday it expected to take about $19.5 billion in charges, mainly tied to its electric-vehicle business, a massive hit as the automaker retrenches in the face of sinking EV demand. The sum is among the largest impairments taken by a company and marks the U.S. auto industry’s biggest reckoning to date that it can’t realize its electric-vehicle ambitions anytime soon.
The $19.5 billion is in addition to some $13 billion of operating losses that Ford has incurred over the past 3 years trying to compete in the EV business, even with the huge government subsidies:
Ford . . . has lost $13 billion on its EV business since 2023. . . .
Over at GM, the write-down is smaller, but the change of direction is no less stark. From NBC News, October 16:
On Tuesday, General Motors reported it was taking losses totaling $1.6 billion related to planned changes to its EV rollout. The company attributed some of the change to President Donald Trump’s elimination of the $7,500 in EV purchasing incentives enacted by President Joe Biden.
Nor is the collapse of EV sales limited to Ford and GM. From the NBC piece, as to Tesla:
Plunging sales at Tesla — still the U.S. leader in EV sales — are also contributing to the weakening outlook. Its second-quarter sales dropped almost 13%, and CEO Elon Musk has warned of some “rough quarters” ahead for the company.
And a comparable phenomenon is occurring in other countries, although under differing regulatory and policy regimes. From the Wall Street Journal, October 14:
The Rest of the World Is Following America’s Retreat on EVs. Canada, U.K. and European Union back off electric-vehicle targets as economic reality sets in and even China shows cracks. . . . Carmakers argue the EV business model is an unprofitable proposition given still-high battery costs, spotty car-charging networks and dwindling government subsidies. Incentive programs have ended or have been pared back across Europe and in the U.S. and Canada.
Let’s face it, this was always ill-conceived central planning, and it was never going to work. I went back to the links that I had included to the Ford and GM websites in my January 2022 post. Both links remain active, but the excited talk about leading the way to an all-EV future has been scrubbed from both. Instead, if you go there, you will find, in the case of GM, further links to follow if you want to buy yourself an EV; and in the case of Ford, general news about the company. Reality has returned.
You seem to mistakenly have an all or nothing mindset, all at once. You do not permit the concept of evolution.
Tesla has provided what was in 2024 the Model Y that was the car model with the second best sales in the whole world. The number 1 best seller was the Toyota RAV4.
Tesla made electric cars. The legacy auto manufacturers made cars that were electrified. The difference is that the legacy EV’s don’t sell because they are severely inferior to the Teslas.
Most of your objections simply don’t apply to the Tesla products.
One of the reasons I enjoy FreeRepublic is because people like you are here. Thanks for sharing.
FR THREAD LINK: (VANITY) First US Based IV Generation Nuclear Power Plant to come online in 2026
There are a lot of people on the forum who don't like this or that about Trump and his administration, but one thing they absolutely do understand is the drag of excessive bureaucratic red tape on the ability to innovate.
They understand that removing or reducing the bureaucratic, legal, and environmental overhead in an innovation and investment economy is akin to removing the barnacles that encrust the sleek hull of a warship.
Very excited about that. Thing is, more generation capability is one component of all these things, the infrastructure, transmission line availability and capability, etc. is something not being addressed.
That said, if we can bring SMR nuclear plants onsite for towns and cities, the transmission infrastructure obviously is less of an obstacle because if you are purchasing and installing an SMR for a data center...the distance of the lines you need to beef up is much shorter.
Very exciting!
Small modular reactors will probably perform as advertised, but there is an overhead associated with nuclear plants that cannot be reduced: there are the safety systems consisting of diesel generators coolant reserve tanks, etc. that can run the coolant pumps in case of an unplanned outage, the paperwork planning and recordkeeping that would be the same for a 100MW reactor as for a 1000MW reactor, and the security force that protects the reactors from home grown wackjobs, terrorists, and other Muslims. I don’t know how many are required, but they have enough people to respond to a significant threat 24 hours a day and armed with m-16s large reactors have an economy of scale that small modular reactors lack.
The SMRs are being designed to deal with a lot of the issues you mention here such as the required safety systems.
Trump is trying to have the regs down scaled to make the SMRs more affordable.
One of the problems with the older Nukes was that each plant was unique and each plant had to be have its design approved as a one off.
Much of the plant licensing can be streamed lined if the SMR is built on an existing nuclear power plant site.
The nuke plant I worked at was licensed for 8 nuclear reactors and only one plant was built. There are many such sites across the nation that are the same. Some sites were characterized (approved for construction of a nuke plant) and never had a plant completed.
Theoretically 7 SMR could be built on the site without further 'Site Characterization' which cost a lot and takes years.
The one I worked at in the mid 80s had two 900MW PWRs, and the documentation was massive. Joke was if the paperwork didn’t weigh more than the part it wasn’t nuclear. So unless the NRC has significantly reduced its regulations there have to be about the same number of employees dealing with it
The author has a very solid blog that gets loads of comments
Silver is going higher and higher as it is a critical part of batteries for EV’s and getting more critical for other uses.
Several trillion $ worldwide.
Once enough people go to EV’s, we will be taxed by the mile to pay for the roads. Something will have to replace gas tax revenue.
Government will be able to track you and know where you are all the time.
Our current electrical grid could not handle it if 10% of people suddenly used EV’s.
We would need massive new generation to go past that and I see no activity in that direction. Right now, the democrats seem to think the “electric fairy” will just magickly charge the cars.
Yes, but will they let us have it? Cars cost more now than my house cost in 1980.
All of what you posted is why I would not rely on an electric vehicle.
Liberals and NIMBY’s will never let us build the electrical infrastructure to handle EV’s if adopted by most. Never going to happen.
But at what costs. Batteries use a lot of silver and silver is exploding in price. So how much is a battery going to cost in a few years, even if they can surmount this obstacle?
But at what costs? Silver is rapidly shooting up in price.
Oh, its coming. They will be taxing us by the mile soon enough and tracking everywhere we go.
This is how they do the forklifts at my job. They change out the batteries.
Send it to Elon Musk... It totally solves the long distance issue problem, chargers in garage problem, four hours at a ‘gas station ‘problem... etc etc etc... I’m amazed Elon Musk didn’t come up with it...
Ain’t it something? And I suppose that no, they will not. Freedom of travel isn’t for serfs, after all...
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