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Readint of the Tea Leaves: Project Ukraine
self | 7 Oct 25 | self

Posted on 10/07/2025 1:51:43 PM PDT by Jumper

An analysis of the Russo-Urainian War in 2025. I look at events essentially from the draw down in Kursk to the overall trajectory of the combat lines. Finally, I take a look at constraints on the west and challenges faced.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Conspiracy; History; Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: briangriffinisadog; gidgetgoestokiev; humorlesszeepers; magic8ball; nato; phony; plagiarism; plagiarist; proxywar; putinthewarpig; readint; russia; russiansuicide; russiantrollfarm; stolenwords; trumpswar; ukraine; usa; vladtheimploder; welfarewar

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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

Trump thinks so, therefore are you disputing him?


61 posted on 10/08/2025 7:10:52 AM PDT by Timber Rattler ("To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace." --George Washington)
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To: Timber Rattler
--- "Trump thinks so, therefore are you disputing him?"

You're evasive this morning. I asked you YOUR view.

"Is Ukraine winning the war?"

62 posted on 10/08/2025 7:12:39 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: Timber Rattler

La La La I’m Not Listening...
to a Zeeper

But at least I will keep pushing for US disengagement from Ukraine with my elected officials and by turning ordinary Americans against our evil NAZI spawn in Ukraine.


63 posted on 10/08/2025 7:18:16 AM PDT by Jumper
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To: Timber Rattler

La La La I’m Not Listening...
to a Zeeper

But at least I will keep pushing for US disengagement from Ukraine with my elected officials and by turning ordinary Americans against our evil NAZI spawn in Ukraine.


64 posted on 10/08/2025 7:18:16 AM PDT by Jumper
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

World Live Map by Region:
https://ukraine.liveuamap.com/

Merkel BLAMES Poland & The Baltics For The WAR IN UKRAINE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Noa-0yw_6w8

Poland Up in Arms over Angela Merkel’s Hungarian Interview | WION News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3sdPGPKQHo

Why Zelenskyy is suddenly finding Chinese satellites everywhere?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTmipPJOoUQ

RUAF Capture Entire Defensive Line East of Kostyantynivka
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9I9b3feAZoQ

Endgame. Ukraine Loses Confident Control of Kupyansk. Ukraine Pulling Out of Pokrovsk? Front Update.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlN6d81tx_s

Why Ukraine lost the war: our Military Industrial Complex makes money, not weapons
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLFq_wNGQAc

Ex-NSA General Flynn’s Bombshell: Ukraine Has Already Lost The War - DID MICHAEL FLYNN’S DISASTER INTERVIEW WITH CHARLIE KIRK RESULT IN KIRK’S MURDER?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAjI4CQ9qVk


65 posted on 10/08/2025 7:34:46 AM PDT by Jumper
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To: Jumper
HI. You spend more time of YouTube videos that do I.

But I am looking forward toTimber Rattler -- the moderator for Pennsylvania over on GOPBrieifing room -- answering what his view is? :Is Ukraine winning the war?"

66 posted on 10/08/2025 7:42:15 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: tlozo
Hi. Looked at your article, not hotlinked. The first two paragraphs are interesting:

The Russian army's advance in Ukraine slowed again in September, especially in the Donetsk region, according to an AFP analysis of data from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

In one month, Moscow's forces seized a total of 447 square kilometers from Ukraine, accelerating a slowdown that began in August, the ISW data showed.

So it looks as if another source, which turns out to be a report about a report about an ISW report. News from a Washington DC think tank. Fascinating.
67 posted on 10/08/2025 8:03:03 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: tlozo

Ukraine is forcing kids they chase down on the streets.

https://youtu.be/KXhC8WREVKM?si=GCV6fTyBZsOpMxko

https://youtu.be/Kp26UsVbwtQ?si=8J8HIaOoQdD-W9KI

Russia is relying on contracted soldiers primarily in Ukraine. Of course we point out some exception:

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-conscripts-war-combat/33415104.html. But by policy they do not even use conscripts in Ukraine.

The problems that arise when you piss off someone 3.5 times your size.


68 posted on 10/08/2025 8:24:40 AM PDT by Red6
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To: Red6
The problems that arise when you piss off someone 3.5 times your size.

Yup, by trying to be an independent country and not a vassal of Russia.

69 posted on 10/08/2025 8:27:17 AM PDT by tlozo (“We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump)
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time
News from a Washington DC think tank

Feel free to post a better source :)

70 posted on 10/08/2025 8:33:21 AM PDT by tlozo (“We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump)
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To: tlozo
--- "News from a Washington DC think tank Feel free to post a better source :)"

Thanks for the invitation. I don't need to. My stance is "wait and see" as regards the outcome.

I did comment with quite number of links, to which no response has come as yet. Zelensky's words about Western support for Russian weapons systems:

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has alleged that drones and missiles fired by Russia against his country are filled with parts sourced from Western companies.

In a social media post on Monday, Zelenskyy said the hundreds of weapons used in Russian attacks over the previous two nights contained tens of thousands of components produced by firms in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, Taiwan and China."

Source: Ukraine's Zelenskyy says Western parts found in Russian drones, missiles AlJazeera, 6 Oct 2025

" 'During the massive combined strike on Ukraine on the night of October 5, Russia used 549 weapon systems containing 102,785 foreign-made components — from companies in the United States, China and Taiwan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the Netherlands.'

"Mr Zelensky said Ukraine is preparing new sanctions against those who help Russia, with proposals to curb the supply schemes."

Source: British parts discovered in Russian drones used to attack Ukraine Independent UK, 6 October 2025

"Among the components analyzed, three American companies — Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, and Microchip Technology — as well as the Swiss STMicroelectronics — manufactured the most."

Source: 69% of the foreign components retrieved from the drones used by Russia in Ukraine originate from US companies B4Ukraine, n.d.

"Zelenskyy specifies that the strike drones launched contained approximately 100,688 foreign components, the Iskanders contained about 1,500, the Kinzhals contained 192, and the Kalibrs contained 405.

" 'Companies in the United States manufacture converters for Kh-101 missiles and Shahed/Geran-type drones, sensors for those UAVs and for Kinzhal missiles, analog-to-digital converters for drones and missiles, and microelectronics for missiles,' the President says."

Source: Thousands of US, Chinese, and EU components found in Russian drones and missiles — Zelenskyy RBC Ukraine, via MSN, 6 October 2025

"Feel free" to make comment.
71 posted on 10/08/2025 8:42:24 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: Jumper
Merkel BLAMES Poland & The Baltics For The WAR IN UKRAINE

LOL, Merkel, who is on a book tour trying to re-write her historic failure of ignoring Putin's imperial ambition and actually funding his military? Okay

72 posted on 10/08/2025 8:45:31 AM PDT by tlozo (“We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump)
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time
I did comment with quite number of links, to which no response has come as yet..."Feel free" to make comment.

Thanks, but none of those links cover the changing front lines as does U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

73 posted on 10/08/2025 8:48:43 AM PDT by tlozo (“We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump)
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To: tlozo
--- "...none of those links cover the changing front lines as does U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW)."

Yup. So you have only an interest in the Kagan-Keane reports. No interest in President Zelensky's assertions about Western suppliers of components for Russian weapons. Fine.

Here are some more links about the West still buying Russian products.

"Last year, the U.S. imported about $1.27 billion in Russian fertilizers, slightly more than the $1.14 billion in 2021. The U.S. also imported enriched uranium and plutonium from Russia worth about $624 million in 2024, compared to $646 million in 2021. Russia also exported palladium to the U.S. worth about $878 million in 2024, compared to $1.59 billion in 2021."

What Russian goods the U.S. and EU continue to import despite war in Ukraine New Voice of Ukraine, via MSN, 15 September 2025

"Mainly, nitrogen fertilizer supplies increased – by a quarter, to $66.4 million. Purchases of potash fertilizers also increased – by almost 5%, to $18.5 million in January. The US almost did not buy mixed fertilizers – it is about $613 thousand tons against 568 thousand tons previously.

"The main buyers of Russian fertilizers were China, Brazil and India."

US companies increased fertilizer purchases from Russia by 20% Ukrainian Shipping Magazine, 12 March 2025

"This result allowed exporters from Russia to take second place in Top of the leading suppliers. Canada came in first place with $325.1 million, and Saudi Arabia came in third. Compared to February 2025, shipments to the United States doubled, and compared to March 2024 - by 25%. We are talking about shipments of urea and potassium chloride."

The states are buying up massively produced in Russian fertilizers EAD, 7 May 2025

But what the heck. If the Kagan-Keane team doesn't cover it, it's not happening....

I asked another, so I'll ask you. Is Ukraine winning the war?

74 posted on 10/08/2025 8:57:38 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: tlozo

What happens in your neighborhood and affects you, you take an interest in, think Mexico today and the Cartels. Do you think we’re not pushing on the Mexicans?

This idea of sovereignty is a good idea, but it’s not absolute or without a caveat.

If Ethiopia causes the Niles level to drop pwith their damn, what do you think Egypt is going to do? Respect Ethiopia’s sovereignty?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam

If I’m your neighbor, and I smoke a lot of pot and stink up the whole area, I don’t mow or clean up my property, I play really loud music into the night, and I have a dozen dogs that shit all over the place, including your front lawn, are you going to respect my sovereignty?


75 posted on 10/08/2025 9:03:18 AM PDT by Red6
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time
"Is Ukraine winning the war?"

Yes, I believe that Ukraine is winning the war. And Trump agrees with me.

76 posted on 10/08/2025 9:03:54 AM PDT by Timber Rattler ("To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace." --George Washington)
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To: Jumper
La La La I’m Not Listening...

Nice.

77 posted on 10/08/2025 9:06:49 AM PDT by Timber Rattler ("To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace." --George Washington)
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time
So you have only an interest in the Kagan-Keane reports. No interest in President Zelensky's assertions about Western suppliers of components for Russian weapons. Fine. Here are some more links about the West still buying Russian products...I asked another, so I'll ask you. Is Ukraine winning the war?

LOL, no my interest is not "only" in the Kagan reports, but in the front line changes. So I asked for ANY of your BETTER sources on the topic. Instead you spam me with unrelated topics.

Thanks, but be polite enough not to spam me with unrelated links(Zelenskys assertion) on topics I am not discussing.

As to is Ukraine winning? Yes, its winning its freedom from Russian subjugation, which was Putin's main goal in invading Ukraine.

78 posted on 10/08/2025 9:06:59 AM PDT by tlozo (“We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump)
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To: Red6
Do you think we’re not pushing on the Mexicans?...If I’m your neighbor, and I smoke a lot of pot and stink up the whole area

But are not invading Mexico. Lol, so Ukraine was stinking up the neighborhood, which is why Putin invaded?

Seriously, what did Ukraine do that could justify the invasion?

Russia signed the UN charter agreeing to settle ALL disputes in the UN.

The United Nations Charter, specifically in Article 33, states that all member states must agree to settle their international disputes by peaceful means, including negotiation, inquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, resort to regional agencies, or other peaceful means.

79 posted on 10/08/2025 9:14:44 AM PDT by tlozo (“We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump)
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To: tlozo

We need to find a way out of this war without abandoning Ukraine, nor risking their troops lives in pressuring them to do what we want.

We need to ensure Ukraine gets the best deal possible, but we should be heading in the direction of de-escalation (which we are) and ultimately peace.

War is the destruction of wealth and life.

It’s immoral.

War is sometimes a necessary evil and can be justified using the Just War theory.

But when this war is unnecessary, no pressing security need for NATO expansion. Predictable that it would happen especially after Ukraine 2014 and Republic of Georgia. Avoidable, we could have backpedaled and had a 3 month window and saw the Russians building up their forces. Also predictable in outcome, with a low probability of success. Where one can argue that the other side was put in a position where they can claim it’s a security threat and that we lied to them. That’s just plain stupid!

This is a war that never should have been.

Everyone that was involved in making the decisions leading up to this war on our side, deserves to be fired.


80 posted on 10/08/2025 10:11:59 AM PDT by Red6
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