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Posted on 09/09/2025 7:22:29 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
The labor market created far fewer jobs than previously thought, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday that added to concerns both about the health of the economy and the state of data collection.
Annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls data for the year prior to March 2025 showed a drop of 911,000 from the initial estimates, according to a preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The total revision was on the high end of Wall Street expectations, which ranged from a low around 600,000 to as many as a million. The revisions were more than 50% higher than last year’s adjustment.
The numbers, which are adjusted from data in the quarterly census and reflect updated information on business openings and closings, add to evidence that the employment picture in the U.S. is weakening.
Tuesday’s revisions are not by themselves a reflection of current conditions as they go back as much as a year and a half. However, recent months’ data also has been pointing to a soft labor market. The summer months of June, July and August saw average payroll growth of just 29,000 per month, below the breakeven level for keeping the unemployment rate steady.
The largest markdowns came in leisure and hospitality (-176,000), professional and business services (-158,000) and retail trade (-126,200). Most sectors saw downward revisions, though transportation and warehousing and utilities had small gains. Almost all the revisions were confined to the private sector; government jobs were adjusted down by 31,000.
In addition to the economic concerns, the revisions also bring added heat to the BLS, which has been under fire from the White House for its data collection methods and results.
Following a weak jobs report for July that featured substantial downward revisions, President Donald Trump fired then-BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and nominated Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni as her replacement. However, the August payrolls count was actually lower than July’s and also featured revisions that took down the June total to a loss of 13,000 jobs, the first negative total since December 2020.
The benchmark revisions differ from the monthly adjustments in that they are far more encompassing.
Where the monthly moves come from additional survey data that comes in to the BLS, the annual revisions stem from more comprehensive information from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages as well as tax data that essentially offers a full do-over on the data, rather than the incremental course corrections of the monthly reports.
Moreover, the numbers released Tuesday will face further revisions when the BLS releases the final benchmark figure in February 2026.
For the previous benchmark revision, which encompassed the 12 months prior to March 2024, the initial total was 818,000 fewer jobs, later adjusted in February 2025 to 598,000, still the largest downward move since 2009.
As a share of the 171-million-member labor force, the revisions amount to 0.6%. However, the political and economic ramifications could be considerable.
Additional signs of labor market weakness will add to the case that Trump has been pressing for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
This augurs well for rate cuts.
Window dressing for Camel A. Hairass being undone…
Yep, the final year of Biden/Harris was an economic collapse thanks to their inflationary policies.
Stagflation:
AI, Stagflation is an economic condition characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and high unemployment. It presents a challenging scenario for policymakers, as traditional measures to combat one issue can worsen the others
More.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp
this massive revision on top of last year’s points to the inadequacy and inaccuracy of BLS tools to tabulate - which is why there will be new leadership - as soon as Antoni is confirmed. the surveys, low response rate are inadequate - and antiquated. the reality is we have only a loose handle on the state of emplooyment in the meantime.
Waiting for Trump to fire the current BLS head. Well, he needs to be consistant. These are bad numbers too.
Hopefully all of them.
That wasn’t why he fired the previous one
Probably one more month to “improve.”
Numbers prior to March 2025 are Biden numbers. Recall that Trump didn’t take office until January 20, 2025.
Trump is not a miracle worker worker, It takes time to adjust & change the course if an economy that was totally run into the ground. The Fed does their own thing, and they usually work in a weaponized manner.
That’s well and good, but it flies in the face of the Administration trumpeting economic growth for over half a year.
The measurement is a survey(s). It’s non trivial.
Like so:
In the household survey (CPS), the BLS asks individuals aged 16 and over in sampled households a series of questions about their work and job search activities during the reference week, which is generally the week containing the 12th of the month. Key questions include whether the person did any work as a paid employee, worked in their own business or on their own farm, or worked without pay for at least 15 hours in a family business or farm during the reference week.
Fairly critical item in there. 16 and over. This hits the workforce participation rate as the elderly retire, but are still part of the denominator, as it were. Because of the baby boom bulge in the graphs, we have lowering participation rate, and people thinks that means the world has gone lazy. But it’s just demographics.
Waiting for Trump to fire the current BLS head.
——————
The BLS numbers have been bogus for decades. It needs to go back to factoring everything in, food, gas, rent, services, etc….but in doing so, revealing the true Inflation rate results in very negative consequences.
“ Effects of High Inflation on Consumer Behavior
Changes in Spending Habits
-Reduced Purchasing Power: As prices rise, consumers can buy less with the same amount of money, leading to a decrease in overall spending.
-Prioritization of Essentials: People tend to focus on purchasing essential goods and services, such as food and housing, while cutting back on non-essential items.
Impact on Savings and Investments
-Increased Savings Rate: Some consumers may increase their savings to prepare for future price increases, leading to a shift in spending patterns.
Investment in Tangibles: High inflation often drives individuals to invest in tangible assets like real estate or commodities, which are perceived as more stable compared to cash.
Borrowing and Debt Management
-Higher Interest Rates: To combat inflation, central banks may raise interest rates, making borrowing more expensive. This can lead to reduced consumer loans and mortgages.
-Debt Repayment Focus: Individuals may prioritize paying off existing debts to avoid higher interest costs, further limiting discretionary spending.
Behavioral Adjustments
-Price Comparison: Consumers become more price-sensitive, often comparing prices across different retailers to find the best deals.
-Stockpiling: Anticipating further price increases, some may choose to stockpile essential goods, leading to temporary shortages in the market.”
That said, the U.S. is trapped, no way out. Lower interest rates, inflation rises. Raise interest rates, US interest on debt explodes, more US debt selling and severely reduced economic activity.
The world is dumping US debt instruments, which finance our governments operation, causes the Fed to buy more debt, which causes our interest payments ( already exceeding $1 Trillion) to go ballistic.
Trapped.
911,000 illegals out of jobs ,to be replaced by American workers.
Rate cuts coming and employment is a lagging indicator. It peaks at the end of downturns. Jeremy Seigel has it right: We’ve just been through what’s called a “rolling recession” and it’s ending now.
If that’s the case, why lower rates?
Next month they’ll revise them up a million and inflation will come in a 2% for the month.
And i think the deep state is just messing with Trump. I wouldn’t believe any of the numbers. Ask IRS for W2 and 1099 filings and get a read from ADP.
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