Posted on 02/12/2025 6:38:57 AM PST by BenLurkin
At the end of 2024, astronomers detected an asteroid...the estimated orbit put it at a 1% chance of striking Earth.
As of this writing, it now has a 2.3% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032. While you might think this resembles the plot of Don't Look Up, none of this is too unusual.
You can see this in the image above, which indicates potential trajectory points. The 2.3% odds aren't simply the chances of a die roll. What it means is that when astronomers run 1,000 orbital simulations based on the data we have, 23 of them impact Earth.
The most probable trajectory currently estimates that it will have a close approach of 240,000 km from Earth, which is within the orbit of the Moon but not dangerously close.
So while the odds have doubled, astronomers aren't too worried.
In 2028, it will pass within 8 million kilometers of Earth. This is actually when astronomers will be able to make much more precise measurements of its orbit. We will then see whether we need to start making plans. Even if astronomers find out the odds of impact are almost 100%, we still wouldn't need to panic, for a few reasons.
We still have years to deal with 2024 YR4, and its orbit is such that we would have a good chance of deflecting it. And even if the absolute worst-case scenario were to occur, 2024 YR4 isn't large enough to cause an extinction event. The absolute nightmare scenario is that it would strike Earth in a heavily populated area.
We'd have to evacuate people from the risk zone, but we would have a few years to do that. An impact would be bad, but we could minimize the risk significantly.
(Excerpt) Read more at sciencealert.com ...
Where do you land, then anchor in place to accept the thrust, the rocket/impulse drive when the irregular rock is spinning at 12.625 Rev per day about a random axis NOT aligned on any recognized surface?
So tonight I’m gonna party like it’s 2031!
Doctor Evil would suggest using a “laser”. Using a laser on a single spot to boil off material and create a small thrust would get the job done over a reasonable interval of time.
Of course, some of these objects are known to be spinning in multiple axes at different rates, but the technique would still work.
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/the-rotating-movement-of-an-asteroid.505944/
https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2024/02/aa48350-23/aa48350-23.html
“Where do you land, then anchor in place to accept the thrust, the rocket/impulse drive when the irregular rock is spinning at 12.625 Rev per day about a random axis NOT aligned on any recognized surface?”
That’s above my pay grade, but NASA has folks way smarter than me, plus AI to figure it out.
12.6 rev per day is 3 degrees of angular motion per minute.
0.05 degree/second
This is a fraction of wave motion on a carrier deck that jets land on every day.
Not a challenge.
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