Posted on 08/20/2024 8:07:14 PM PDT by lasereye
I just learned of the existence of this betting platform. The current election odds there are Trump 52% Harris 47%.
Per Wikipedia:
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to place bets on world events. Users buy and sell shares using cryptocurrency to bet on the likelihood of future events taking place.
Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket is an online prediction market platform that would allow users to trade on the outcome of world events.
In June 2023, Mother Jones reported that interest around the company had increased after a tweet about the outcome of the Titan submersible went viral; the premise of the bet was whether or not the submersible would be found by a certain date, rather than a wager on the fate of the passengers. Polymarket had over 60 markets available at the time of the submersible wager, including the outcome of the Guatemalan presidential election and the likelihood of Twitter suing Meta, and the likelihood that Russia would use nuclear force.
In 2024, the outcome of U.S. elections became the most active market on the platform, with over $508 million (as of August 6, 2024) wagered on the presidential race between the Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Nate Silver, founder of polling analysis firm FiveThirtyEight, became an advisor to Polymarket in 2024.
I think the participants at Polymarket can be assumed to be pretty sophisticated since it's all crypto. In fact I learned of it through an investment newsletter I subscribe to that includes crypto recommendations. They get into a lot of so-called "alt coins" that most people have never heard of.
According to today's newsletter:
As of this writing, Trump leads Kamala by 2 percentage points, a sharp whipsaw after Harris had taken the lead in the weeks prior.
That was this morning. Now he's ahead by 5%.
Encouraging, yes.
However I have long subscribed to Brother Limbaugh’s advice that there is a long way to November. Things happen.
Keep on keeping on!
May the trend continue, and her trouncing in November be a thorough one. We’ve all had rather enough, thank you.
BOMBSHELL: RFK Jr. Ready To ENDORSE Trump And BEAT Kamala: ‘We Will Win...’ | DNC in PANIC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zGYbp61-SY
Harris peaked early. We’ve gotten more than 3 months left
Maybe they heard the rumors about Kamala’s drinking problem and the unrealized capital gains tax that she supposedly is proposing.
Rush always used to say, “The events that will determine the election have not happened yet.”
I’ve not seen an election in which the Republican was ahead anytime in my life, except perhaps in 2016. It’s almost unprecedented for polls to put the Republican anywhere near tied with the Democrat at this point in the process.
Normally, the polls have just two states: (a) the Democrat is comfortably ahead, and (b) the race is “too close to call.”
That PDJT is ahead is encouraging, but I don’t believe any of them. Except possibly the Las Vegas and London odds makers.
You never know, but the betting markets - at the end are accurate. I’ve seen some analysis showing that Kamala needs to be over 3& up in the polls in the swing states at election time to overcome the extra ballots that must be filed in the deep blue precincts, even if the number is over of the number of register voters.
There is no way Harris has that much of a chance. Tonight was the first time I thought she had any chance of winning, and that just means she had a .01 percent chance instead of zero.
question:does Predictit involve money/betting?
https://electionbettingodds.com/
The above website runs the average of All the major betting sites. Trump just took the lead there this evening. First lead in weeks.
you can sense it swinging back to Trump...she finally opened her mouth with the most absurd, communist economic plan. NY TIMES, WASH POST, CNN etc all ripped it to shreds. And this is just her first comment on anything. You just know a crazy, lunatic interview is still coming. Dem Senate candidates are being asked about her plan, trying to defend it. Casey in Pennsylvania was asked to name one food distributor that was “price gouging”. He stuttered and stammered all over himself. Was funny to watch.
This kind of has the feel of 1972
Yes.
thank you
I wonder if the weirdness of the Dem convention has something to do with that?
Related article:
“Polling showing Harris in lead flagged by industry experts for voter samples”
From the article:
“So what they’re doing is they’re polling fewer Republicans. They’re polling a disproportionate number of Biden 2020 voters in these states that were dead even,” pollster John McLaughlin said. There does not to be any consensus on any polls’ accuracy.”
You beat me to it!
If Kamala has peaked this is good news for DJT, but obviously we still have a long way to go. The markets have already reversed 3x this year.
I check Drudge occasionally and today they’re showcasing a piece on Kamala’s pants suits as power dressing. Bwahaha!
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