Posted on 07/30/2022 5:39:55 AM PDT by dennisw
U.S. cattle producers are sending higher numbers of breeding stock to the sale barn, and some are liquidating their herds entirely, signaling a trend that analysts say will likely push already-elevated beef prices even higher in the not-too-distant future.
The latest cattle report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows the market has contracted to levels not seen in years, with total inventory dropping 2% to 98.8 million head since July 2021.
But it's not just the reduction in cattle overall that is of concern. It's what is getting sent to slaughter. There is a notable boost in calf-producing females getting sold for processing in addition to steers, which are typically favored for consumption.
"We are seeing large numbers of female stock have been placed in feedlots," USDA livestock analyst Shayle Shagam said in a radio report for the agency Tuesday.
HEAT WAVE HITS US FARMS, STRESSING CROPS AND RANCHERS' HERDS
The number of females in feedlots is up 3%, and existing herds are down roughly 2.7% from a year ago. Shagam said that combination means "supplies of cattle going to feedlots is going to be declining," resulting in "progressively tighter supplies of all fed cattle available for slaughter as we move into 2023."
With the price of ground beef up 9.7% in June from the same month a year ago, the ongoing decrease in supply could cause prices to surge even further than earlier estimates. The USDA's previous price forecast projected average steer prices would be up nearly 8.5% next year, prior to the storm of conditions causing increasing headaches for producers.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
Have you ever seen a Colorado feed lot? 100,000 head on a couple hundred acres. When the feed prices and all your other expenses double, what else can they do? I guess we’ll be eating our seed corn next. The globalists are going to make this catastrophe biblical in proportion.
Interesting. Thanks for sharing your insights.
Liberals will love the reduction in herd size. Reduced bovine flatulence.
Bill Gates and others are going to be happy to hear this.
So will the enviroIdiots and their crusade against cow farts.
More power to us eating 3d printed beef and the like.....
Are you ready for your grass clipping burgers? Yum! Yum!
I guess you missed that part.
“This years harvest, with all of Biden’s production cost increases, is starting to hit the market. These farmers realize they can’t afford to feed this breeding stock through to next harvest. “
Biden’s 30x30 executive order already is, or soon will be a real burden for ranchers. If you can’t graze your herd....
EC
You can raise back yard meat rabbits with the grass clippings. They need to eat other things too.
I have never been to a humongous feed lot. I have been to a few huge chicken coops and even worked a few days.
Insects. The fix is already in. Nicole Kidman and Robert Downey Jr are leading the way!
They have laws stating how many bug parts are allowed in our food and now we’re suppose to them ,LOL
I overheard a conversation between two women at the Dr’s office , one a rancher saying that the drought this year was going to cause a single cut of hay this year, so they were going to have to go to the grain store and reducing the herd.
Just serendipity.
Spoke with a rancher this week about beef prices. They say they are being paid less for their cattle and it is the processors that are jacking up the price.
He also mentioned that the cost of ranching is going through the roof…feed, labor, etc. Many ranchers are cutting back so as to decrease supply and get their prices back up.
“It’s all about costs.
Cattle production is much more centralized than it used to be. A lot of it is produced by investment by individuals in limited liability companies, not banks as much.
That said, it is a complex system. This has all happened before. We have not taken the cycles out of agriculture as much as we have tried.
In my neck of Florida the most egregious price increases so far has been on packaged and processed foods. Many products are 20% more expensive now and in smaller packaging. That makes me think much of this is driven by mega corporate bean counters thinking they can make a buck under cover of “inflation.”
“More fear mongering and media lies, Who writes this crap?
Supply and demand means More beef in the market should mean LOWER prices. Not higher.. “
You forgot the sarcasm tag. Unless you really think that cows drop out of the sky?
The “Dustbowl” lasted 10 years and was a significant contributor to the “Great Depression”. I’m not sure that is your best example or relevant to the current situation as drought is only one of the contributing factors to further price increases and the “fix” was entirely different.
More details of the Dustbowl here with lots of citations at the end if you want to dive deeper.
https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/dust-bowl
Of course, he Great Depression turned around as USA geared up for WWII though...maybe that is more relevant looking ahead to 2024 or so...
“Liberals will love the reduction in herd size. Reduced bovine flatulence.”
I think AOC’s Green New Deal had taxes on beef of around $10 per pound. We may not see these taxes, but they (the Globalists) certainly intend to drive up prices that much.
...and the HAVE NO CHOICE, if they’re to significantly cut meat consumption in the West.
In Tennessee we are farmers because we raise a mixture of cattle, pigs, wheat corn and soybeans as well as tobacco.
Back in the dust bowl days, nonproductive farms weren’t turned into housing tracts.
This is happening terribly as out of staters from California and Illinois ar driving the real estate market out of farmers ability to keep up with l property taxes.
Then they did and the children sell the farm.
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