Posted on 10/06/2020 9:14:33 AM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
Challenger pulls into double-digit lead over Trump West Long Branch, NJ – Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania and anywhere from an 8-point to 11-point lead among likely voters, according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. This marks an improvement from Biden’s single-digit lead in a Monmouth poll just over one month ago. More voters trust the challenger than the incumbent on key issues, such as handling the pandemic. The poll does not find much shift in opinion since the president’s own Covid-19 diagnosis. Other findings show a Democratic advantage in a trio of statewide office races and a tight margin in the generic party preference for Congress.
(Excerpt) Read more at t.co ...
Watch where candidates are, not the polls. Boden is in FL, and PA.
My confusion was the size of the rat preference given the dreadful behavior of the Democrats. If Trump cannot pivot the focus back on to the economy and security and away from COVID he’s toast. From what I can see the attempt to use his apparent quick and full recovery to his advantage is failing and in fact is backfiring on him because of the MSM. He was going for a Churchill moment but with a hostile and hate filled media it looks like it’s blowing up on him.
Exactly and look how Trump has pulled ads in Ohio and Iowa. Trump has those places wrapped up and is going after Biden’s jugular and hurting him!!
I think that you are correct, and most polls do this for the same reason, they get graded on their accuracy compared with the final results. Their future business depend on this comparison. Prior to the week before, they can push their agenda with no consequence. Like most casual observers, I don't go back and take a look at their earlier polls.
Yes the fear of something happening to your house if you have a Trump sign out is real.
Police in a nearby suburb found a pallet of bricks staged in a park when the riots were going on. ANTIFA clearly wants to bring it home to the ‘burbs.
Which is quite appropriate.
I took my probabilistic model for a spin this morning, running it through a Solver optimizing model to study the effect of over-sampling bias on the current polls.
Based on the state of polling today, President Trump's probability-weighted average is 201.7 Electoral College votes, with a 13% chance of winning.
However, if we take away 2.37% from Biden polls and give it to Trump, the election becomes tied at 269. Taking away 2.40% makes it a 270-268 Trump win, with a 51% chance of winning.
In order for President Trump to get his 2016 result of 306 Electoral College votes (ignoring faithless electors), 3.8% would have to be taken away from Biden and given to Trump. This gives Trump a 74% probability of winning.
The conclusion is this:
If you believe that the polls are grossly over-sampling Democrats, a 2.4% swing to Trump makes it a tied election, and a 3.8% swing gives Trump a 2016 victory, probabilistically.
The question to ask is if these swings fit one's sense of over-sampling correction or not?
-PJ
It’s telling that you’re the first to post these negative polls, but very seldom, if ever on the threads with positive polls for DT.
Translation...the demons already have printed pre voted Biden mail in ballots totaling the entire population of Pennsylvania
Do the math.
You didn’t offend me, until just now
A real low blow, GlA...damn shame to insult a stellar Freeper and damn shame for FR.
No way he gets those numbers.
“Signs are pretty meaningless. The parties send out hordes of volunteers who put them out like pink flamingos. They might be good for name recognition in a Senate battle, but for POTUS I just think they are a waste of paper and money.”
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I agree with the basis for your statement, but there is no basis for seeing, in this case, a 3-4 to 1, Trump to Biden sign advantage in a HISTORICALLY STRONG DEMOrat area such as the Scranton-Mid Valley area of Pa this cycle.
Only thing I can think is that the left has WAY overplayed their hand with law&order, immigration, and downplaying this economy. Just my best guess
500 RV. Garbage. You seem to post a lot of negative things about Trump and this is election. Perhaps you need to disappear for awhile.
I hear there are tens of people standing in hula hoops waiting for Slo Joe to arrive.
Probably not. It would surprise me if Utah turned purple.
Based on my local observations (Democrat block captains strongarming and people afraid to post Trump signs) more than a few people who have Biden signs in their yard are actually going to vote for Trump.
Thanks for your post.
It made me smile!
They are vile. I have never been more frustrated than I am now with the death grip the rats have on 90% of media, The President has done so many great things both large and small yet so many have no clue. We must vote in person on Election Day like our lives depend on it and pray it’s enough
Compared to 2016, don’t see many Biden signs. Then, saw Hillary signs everywhere, including on friends’ Facebook pages. Now? It seems like there is not an election.
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