Flubros - It’s just the flu, bro! Day 11 daily thread (only Flubros/bras allowed)

vanity | 30 March 2020 | Impimp

[impimp]

The American death rate will be far lower than the Italian and Spanish death rates - even with falsely attributing deaths of people with severe preconditions to Corona. Expensive drug cocktails recommended by Trump are helping many people. This will wind up being approximately as deadly as the h1n1 flu of a decade ago. Fauci is wrong to say 100-200k will die.

My concern is for the greater harm this shutdown will have on the economic lives of people and for the loss of constitutional rights. Hoping for an Easter end to this lockdown - end of April is excessive.

[CodeToad]

Still only a few thousand supposedly dead from the virus yet the flu is still 30 times that death rate. No one is freaking out about the flu.

[IrishBrigade]

‘One can argue about unreported cases, blah, blah, blah’

well, yes, we could argue about that, couldn’t we...? think things might change a little if we had a more accurate indicator of total cases...? and if we had a good deal more information about who was dying and what their pre mortem conditions may have been to abet their deaths...?

[NFHale]

“...would be nice if they’d try to be respectful ...”

It would be nice if we were ALL respectful.

We’re on the same side; “fearpers” and “flubros” and all points in between.

The Left will gladly murder “fearpers” and “flubros” without regard. The hate us all equally. I think that’s something we need to remember.

Muzzles point OUT of the perimeter. Despite differences of opinion, it STILL needs to be one team, one fight.

Patrick Henry said it best: “...No man thinks more highly than I do of the patriotism, as well as abilities, of the very worthy gentlemen who have just addressed the House. But different men often see the same subject in different lights; and, therefore, I hope it will not be thought disrespectful to those gentlemen if, entertaining as I do opinions of a character very opposite to theirs, I shall speak forth my sentiments freely and without reserve. ...”

Peace, between us all, folks. We have a common enemy, and they’re LOVING this moment. Let’s not give them jollies.

[SanchoP]

Whoooaa dude,you’ve done it now. The stench of soggy Depends coming off the fearpers is so bad I can’t get past the first page. Shoulda stayed out fishin’.

[IrishBrigade]

‘The Fearpers have crossed the line into harassment.’

think they’re bad...? our own neighbors are going to be calling the cops on us if we so much as lay out in our back yards to get some vitamin D...

[PIF]

What you guys seems to be forgetting is that this isn’t about death rates, its about higher than normal flu-caused pneumonia rates, the resources and equipment needed to save lives; that this virus is on TOP of the regular flu rates and deaths.

80% of SARS COV2 are likely to survive, but between 1.70-2% will not survive. Most of the 2% will be your parents and grandparents. No one has any immunity to this; everyone can get it.

Having had pneumonia twice, I can assure you that it is not something anyone should experience - unless you find extreme difficulty breathing pleasurable on top of all the other problems. I, for one, would take the flu all day over this crap.

[HighSierra5]

What’s the plan?

[DoodleBob]

I disagree.

The point of 'it's exponential, bro' is to scare people. Exponential = lily pads covering the pond. That doesn't happen. It's a logistic pattern:

Separately, while plotting in log space ensures that the slope of each curve is comparable, it doesn't correct for size differences...or, more to the point, differences in timeline. That was my point about 10 cases being a bad equalizing 'starting point' for the plotting. If you wanted to make it 10 cases per 1MM citizens, then we're talking.

Finally, thank you for your commentary on my knowledge base. I bow to your superiority, my liege: only those members of the self-designated Bourgeois possessing a firm grounding in calculus can discern rate of change from a level for us prols. I'm sorry that the concept of normalizing for population differentials and putting metrics on a common footing put power into the hands of little people. It should be left only to experts, just like guns. That way, the smart people like you can control the narrative. I'm sorry. Maybe I'll endeavor to get your approval before I post.

[brookwood]

This article is preliminary, but the authors are economists at Wash U St. Louis. The conclusion is that by staying at home we have already avoided thousands of deaths, probably from fewer car accidents and lower incidence of regular flu.
I have been very critical of other flubro arguments but I think this one is sensible. We are over-reacting, instead of just stopping a pandemic we are making ourselves much safer than we were 2 weeks ago.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2y2gvh2q7axdzz2/COVID-19_UnintendedConsequences.pdf?dl=0

[DoodleBob]

Mr Jackson, my good man, you and I are firmly in agreement on what you wrote. The point of my logistic vs exponential pattern is that controls or nature (more likely controls) WILL make the curve flatten. We've seen it elsewhere. My other point, wasn't that the original posting was wrong: it was the point of indexing at 10 cases is faulty since 10 cases for Switzerland isn't the same intensity of infection as 10 cases in America or San Marino.

If my Flyers are beating the Islanders 4-1 at the beginning of the 3rd period, I don't want them to play defense. We can work from home a little while longer to snuff this thing out. Let's keep researching, let's keep posting, and let the marketplace of ideas and research win the day.

[SanchoP]

The important number is the number of newly infected / day divided by the number of presently infected.

That's wildly inaccurate and you know it. Quit pimping for the Chicoms. STFU!

[stars & stripes forever]

What is the plan...

Trust the President.

[ican'tbelieveit]

I just want to address one thing in your comment. I don’t think these are expensive drug cocktails. They will cost <$100 for both of them and the course is pretty short. Reports are the turn around is in a matter of days.

So the HCQ for 5 days or so and the z-pack for a week.

[AndyJackson]

It's a logistic pattern....If you wanted to make it 10 cases per 1MM citizens, then we're talking.

The logistics curve is an exponential model modified to account for the fact that the exponential has to roll over once you start to saturate or consume the population that is relied upon to sustain the exponential.

Thus the usual predator prey problem - which is the original source of the logistics equation. A breading pair of lion in a large population of wildebees leads to an exponential increase in the population of lions until they exhaust the population of the young,old and diseased wildebees and then the lions start to die off because of lack of food.

From the wildebees point of view, however, the exponential increase of lion was something to be avoided because by the time the logistics modification to this comes into effect you are dead.

We are a long long long long way in terms of generations of doubling from the Wuahan flu saturating the population.

[ican'tbelieveit]

Cheyenne Mountain is in CO Springs, CO.

Probably the reason the military is hunkering down there is there is an outbreak in El Paso county. Nothing nefarious about what may be happening there.

[IrishBrigade]

‘But that does not mean, “pheww this is over” and we can go back to business as usual’

I am as big a ‘flubro’ as anyone else on this thread; but I have never expressed such an opinion...I am fully aware of the need for mitigation through isolation and improved hygiene,but what really gets me angry are people who chastise me for not being sufficiently terrified that I do other than cower in a corner all day...

[LateBoomer]

They scared us all with “there won’t be enough ventilators to go around” and “we’ll overwhelm the healthcare system”.

As more ventilators and PPEs become available and when it’s apparent that outside of a few hotspots our healthcare system is slower than usual (due to cancelling every visit/procedure unrealted to COVID-19) then it’s time to get back to work.

In a high-risk group? Continue to shelter in place and use extreme caution when going out. Outside that group but scared to go to work? Stay home and keep drawing unemployment for 39 weeks — but no social gatherings or non-essential shopping trips.

If we don’t get America moving again the virus won’t kill us but the cure will.

[AndyJackson]

PS, I agree that this should be indexed to cases per million of population, although the difference for countries between 10 Million and 200 Million is just a few days of exponential increase. Still, I agree that if you are looking for saturation effects you have to look at the percentage of saturation in the target population.

[crusty old prospector]

Ha ha. True dat.

[AndyJackson]

I am fully aware of the need for mitigation through isolation and improved hygiene,but what really gets me angry are people who chastise me for not being sufficiently terrified that I do other than cower in a corner all day...

The problem is the number of hard-core flubros who think that mitigation is for pussies and communists.